This Is the Year They Have to Pick a Path Forward

Steelers Analysis Steelers Commentary

Pittsburgh Steelers general manager Omar Khan, head coach Mike Tomlin and president Art Rooney II speak after practice, July 27, 2023. — Ed Thompson / Steelers Now

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a team that is entering the 2025 season trying to do two things at the same time.

There are two major ideas that have been governing the way the team has operated there last few years, and while both of those ideas have the same goal, they get there in very different ways.

They are not necessarily exclusionary. It’s possible that both could succeed. It’s equally possible that both could fail. It’s also very possible that 2025 is the season that the correct path to the future is fully revealed once and for all.

The first thing the Steelers are trying to do is win with their defense — a task that Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has been undertaking ever since the elbow of his franchise quarterback exploded in 2019.

Led by Minkah Fitzpatrick, T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward, the Steelers have had an unquestionably great defense over that time. In 2019, right after Roethlisberger’s injury, the team made a hard choice. They traded a future first-round pick to the Miami Dolphins for Fitzpatrick, solidifying a path forward that wasn’t being undertaken by many in the NFL at that time: winning with a dominant defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick in a game against the Buffalo Bills on Sept. 12, 2021. — Ed Thompson / Steelers Now

Since then, that unit has largely fit that bill. The Steelers finished fifth in scoring defense in 2019, dragging a Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges-led offense to a .500 record. In 2020, they were even better, finishing third. Only in 2021, amid Watt’s record-breaking sack performance, did the defense fail to finish inside the top 10 in scoring.

But the Steelers also have notoriously failed to win a playoff game with this plan, and the playoff results have not been kind to the team’s defense. In 2020 — aided by five turnovers from the offense — they gave up 48 points in a home loss to the Cleveland Browns. In 2021, despite pitching a shutout in the first quarter and scoring a touchdown of their own in the second, the Steelers defense eventually yielded 42 points to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

In 2023, with Watt sidelined with an injury, they gave up 39 points to the Buffalo Bills, and last year, it was only 28 points but an emasculating 299 yards on the ground from the Baltimore Ravens that ended the Steelers’ season.

In those four playoff losses, the Steelers defense have averaged 39.25 points against. More critically, that elevated rate of scoring has also come with next to no splash contributions that could help the offense, with the defense averaging 1.5 sacks per game and 0.5 turnovers per game.

Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker T.J. Watt is blocked by Baltimore Ravens fullback Patrick Ricard on Jan. 11, 2024. — Ed Thompson / Steelers Now

This offseason, after that humiliating performance against the Ravens, the Steelers pushed even more chips in on their pursuit of this path to victory. They re-signed Watt to a three-year, $123 million contract extension, traded Fitzpatrick for All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey and signed free agent cornerback Darius Slay from the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. That came after signing Heyward to an extension and making linebacker Patrick Queen the highest-priced free agent signing in the team’s history in 2024.

Entering the 2025 season, the Steelers have allocated the most salary cap space to defense of any team in the league, spending $158 million on Teryl Austin’s side of the ball and only $93.7 million on Arthur Smith’s offense. Not only are the Steelers No. 1 in defensive spending, they’re an extreme outlier. No other team has spent even $140 million. It’s the fourth straight season the Steelers have led the league in defensive spending.

This year’s Steelers defensive has an embarrassment of riches, so much so that it should serve as a litmus test for the entire process of trying to win with defense. If you can’t win with Ramsey, Slay, Joey Porter Jr., DeShon Elliott, Juan Thornhill, Queen, Payton Wilson, Watt, Alex Highsmith, Heyward and Keeanu Benton as an 11-man unit, you probable just can’t win with defense.

Make no mistake, we know defense is important. The Eagles showed the world that by smothering the high-powered Chiefs offense in Super Bowl LIX. It can be done. The Eagles had the No. 2 scoring defense in the league last year, and it showed in the big game.

But the Eagles spent the second-smallest amount on defense in the NFL last season, and let players like Slay, Josh Sweat, Milton Williams and C.J. Gardner-Johnson go this offseason. 

Both teams want to be good on defense, but they have fundamentally different approaches on how to get there. We know the Eagles’ can work. The jury is still out on the Steelers’, but if the team’s 2025 season ends in yet another playoff defensive meltdown, it should probably be about time to end their pursuit of this particular path to success. 

After all, it’s hard to imagine the Steelers putting together a better defense on paper. This year has to be the proof of concept, or the entire line of thinking of how to be successful — which seems engrained in head coach Mike Tomlin — needs to be scrapped. I’m not saying Tomlin’s job is on the line here, but if this plan again fails, there needs to be a come-to-Jesus moment about its potential for success.

Pittsburgh Steelers assistant general manger Andy Weidl and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith at practice on Aug. 23, 2025. — Ed Thompson / Steelers Now

At the same time the Steelers have been pouring win-now energy into their defense, the team has also been undergoing a strategic-level rebuild. Initiated by general manger Omar Khan and assistant general manager Andy Weidl when that duo took over the front office in 2022, the Steelers have been systematically building their next Super Bowl winner, with a clear focus on building from the trenches out.

That strategy came with Weidl from his time with the Eagles. Of the team’s six first- and second-round picks in the three draft classes under Khan and Weidl, five have been linemen. They also used a third-round pick on a 300-pound tight end, a fourth-round pick on a guard, two fourth-round picks on outside linebackers and a fifth and a sixth-rounder on defensive tackles. The average size of a Khan/Weidl Steelers draft class is roughly equal to that of a bull moose.

The idea of starting the rebuild in the trenches makes sense. Those players have second-order impacts all over the roster.

Investing in linebackers doesn’t matter if the defensive tackles can’t keep them clean. Investing in a secondary doesn’t matter if the edge rushers can’t pressure the quarterback. Investing in a quarterback and wide receivers doesn’t matter if the offense line can’t give them time to make plays down field, and investing in a running back doesn’t matter if he never has anywhere to run. (See Harris, Najee).

Pittsburgh Steelers tackle Broderick Jones runs out of the tunnel for a game against the Cleveland Browns on Dec. 8, 2024. — Ed Thompson / Steelers Now

But that plan, now in its third year, has yet to produce any real dividends. Broderick Jones, Khan’s first draft pick in 2023, has spent two unproductive seasons at right tackle. He’ll play left tackle, the position he was drafted to play, for the first season in 2025 and his ability remains basically a total unknown. Troy Fautanu, Khan’s second first-round draft pick, missed all but one game of his rookie seasons with a pair of knee injuries. He’ll make the second start of his career against the New York Jets on Sunday.

We’ve seen more from Zach Frazier, who had a promising year as a rookie center in 2024, and Mason McCormick who exceeded expectations coming out of South Dakota State last year. But whether or not the first phase this plan will be a success largely rides on the abilities of the two first-round offensive tackles.

The Steelers would love to pivot their draft board to the skill positions in the 2026 NFL Draft, seeking a long-sought-after franchise quarterback, a receiver to pair with DK Metcalf, and a cornerback to replace the 34-year-old Slay.

But that requires the team’s offensive line plan to pan out. If Jones struggles as much — or more — on the left as he did on the right, or if Fautanu can’t stay healthy, the team might be forced to backtrack, and start the process over with yet another offensive lineman coming early in the draft class.

Pittsburgh Steelers offensive tackle Troy Fautanu at OTAs on June 5, 2025. — Ed Thompson / Steelers Now

The biggest single question about how the 2025 team will do on the field will likely be whether or not they can protect 42-year-old stop-gap quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Evaluating success and failure of these two different paths won’t be made by the same metrics, either.

Success with the defense might mean finally getting the team’s playoff losing streak off Tomlin’s back and would validate his feelings about winning with a defense-first team at this level, while another failure should cause some serious soul searching. 

That one is simple. For the Steelers to prove the concept, they need to take their defense into a game in January against one of the top offenses in the NFL and shut it down for four quarters. They don’t have to win the game to prove they can do that. But if one of those four playoffs losses with a 14-0 shutout loss with multiple splash defensive plays giving the offense chance after chance, instead of a bunch of blowouts, the narrative surrounding what the Steelers are trying to do on defense would be very different.

Similarly, the young linemen could play well and the rest of the Steelers offense could be downright bad. Rodgers is 42, Jaylen Warren has never been a featured back before, there is no second outside receiver behind Metcalf, and Smith hasn’t had real success as an NFL offensive coordinator in years at this point. The line could be good and the rest of the offense could stink.

But by the end of this year, we’ll know if Khan and Weidl’s plan is working, and we’ll know if the 2026 NFL Draft prep that the team is currently undergoing can continue down its preferred path of finding the team’s next franchise quarterback at all costs.

Clock counting down to the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh on May 12, 2025. — Ed Thompson / Steelers Now

So where does that leave us for a prediction? In some ways, this is one of the hardest seasons in recent memory to project. If this was a science experiment, it would be a bad one. There are too many independent variables.
How to predict results?

Tomlin remains a great coach. His record in one-score games is downright incredible. I have no doubt he’ll largely have this team ready to play. I don’t think most of the worst-case scenarios are likely to happen.

But I see too many unanswered questions that have to go right for the Steelers to really be a dominant team. They seem most likely to once again be destined for the middle of the pack in the AFC.

I still don’t like their chances much if they have to face the best of the best in the postseason, but I see a light enough early season schedule that the Steelers should be able to stack some wins.

My prediction? An 11-6 regular season that finally gives the team a reprieve in terms of playoff opponents, with a win over a lesser light in the Wild Card round.

But more than the wins and losses, the way the Steelers get there will be the interesting part of the 2025 season when it comes to how this team is going to move forward in pursuit of winning in the future.

2025 PITTSBURGH STEELERS GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTION

Week 1 at New York Jets: W
Week 2 vs. Seattle Seahawks: W
Week 3 at New England Patriots: W
Week 4 vs. Minnesota Vikings in Ireland: L
Week 6 vs. Cleveland Browns: W
Week 7 at Cincinnati Bengals: L
Week 8 vs. Green Bay Packers: L
Week 9 at Indianapolis Colts: W
Week 10 at Los Angeles Chargers: W
Week 11 vs. Cincinnati Bengals: W
Week 12 at Chicago Bears: W
Week 13 vs. Buffalo Bills L
Week 14 at Baltimore Ravens: L
Week 15 vs. Miami Dolphins: W
Week 16 at Detroit Lions: L
Week 17 at Cleveland Browns: W
Week 18 vs. Baltimore Ravens: W 

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