Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 1’s game between the New Orleans Saints and the Arizona Cardinals.

The Caesars Superdome sets the tone. Dome track. No weather excuses. New Orleans unveils a second-year quarterback, Spencer Rattler, and a new system. Arizona brings continuity, tempo, and a run game built heavy for fast turf. The market trusts that profile. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 1’s game between the New Orleans Saints and the Arizona Cardinals.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

This script starts on the ground with James Conner, Kyler Murray, and Trey Benson. Arizona averaged 5.0 yards per carry last season. New Orleans allowed 5.1 per carry. That is trench daylight. Motion is the multiplier. The Cardinals ranked fifth in success rate when using motion; that’ll continue. The Saints ranked bottom five defending motion. Drew Petzing will layer together orbit, jet, and pistol looks to widen alleys. Kyler Murray will stress the secondary’s edges with keepers and play action. Trey McBride will do what he does, and punish linebackers sliding downhill. James Conner will then those positives into red-zone snaps and four-minute control. The X-factor, however, should be a great game from second-year wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., whose rookie season felt slightly disappointing.

The Saints’ offense funnels through Alvin Kamara and quick-game rhythm. Their backs drew targets on 24% of attempts, the league’s highest share. That fits Kellen Moore’s install but caps explosive upside. Spencer Rattler’s 2024 resume speaks loudly, but not positively. He never topped 26 completions, 243 yards, or one passing touchdown. He posted five zero-touchdown starts. He had four games under 173 passing yards. That profile cannot rescue third-and-long. Arizona’s defense heated up late against play action, pressuring 40% of those drops. If New Orleans lives in early-down inefficiency, the Cardinals dictate field position and pace.

Arizona’s situational edges are glaring. The Cardinals converted 74% of third-and-short plays. The Saints’ defense cratered after halftime, allowing 6.6 yards per play in second halves. They were worst in third-quarter rushing success allowed. They were also bottom tier versus motion runs. That is Arizona’s comfort zone. Meanwhile, Arizona covered 13 of its last 20 overall and was strong against the number in September. Line movement supports the matchup read. The spread opened shorter and pushed to -6.5 with real money. That is not recreational drift. It’s conviction on continuity over volatility.

Cardinals vs. Saints pick, best bet

Player levers matter. Murray controls the middle with quick play action and selective scrambles. His release punishes soft zones and off leverage. McBride wins with leverage, hands, and route pacing. He is the easy button when the Saints spin to two-high. Marvin Harrison Jr. needs smarter deployment. He ran 102 go routes with negative separation. That wastes his toolkit. Expect more digs, crossers, and glance routes to build first-read wins. Conner anchors positive script and closes drives. On the other side, Kamara remains the heartbeat. He will collect receptions and soften boxes. Chris Olave can sting single coverage, but sustained explosives require clean pockets. Rattler’s pocket profile and the Saints’ late-down metrics do not promise that.

New Orleans needs chaos to hang. Defensive scores. Short fields. Fourth-down swings. Chase Young is the wild card. He can tilt a series if he wins early against Arizona’s edges. Still, that demands complementary points. The Saints were winless in games under 200 passing yards. They also lost every time opponents converted red-zone trips to touchdowns at a modest clip. Arizona’s red-zone menu features McBride isolations and Murray’s keeper threat. Those are high-floor answers indoors. If this becomes a red-zone efficiency contest, the Cardinals own more answers.

I respect Week 1 variance, but I trust the trench and motion mismatches. Arizona’s offense returns continuity. The Saints are teaching a quarterback and retooling timing windows. Indoors, the faster, cleaner operation covers a one-score number. I’m laying it before the hook reappears.

Final score: Cardinals 27 – Saints 16. Murray should manipulate motion and play action to sustain drives; McBride will erase third downs between the numbers and Marv will stress the outsides. That’ll leave plenty of room for Conner to continually close with power. Yes—Alvin Kamara should soak volume and clock, but the Saints will stall in the red zone. If Rattler sees heat on play action, he’ll settle for checkdowns all day.

Best bet: Cardinals -6.5 (-110) at Saints

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!