Giants at Commanders odds, picks and predictions

The New York Giants and the Washington Commanders meet on Sunday in Week 1 of the season at Northwest Stadium. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Giants vs. Commanders odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.

The Commanders pulled off one of the NFL’s biggest turnarounds in 2024, reshaping their identity under new general manager Adam Peters, coach Dan Quinn and rookie QB Jayden Daniels. The fresh leadership quickly changed the culture, with Daniels providing stability at quarterback, Peters adding depth and toughness across the roster and Quinn restoring a defensive edge. The result was a surprising run to the NFC Championship Game and a new era of optimism for the franchise.

This offseason, Washington focused on giving Daniels more support. The team swung a major trade for WR Deebo Samuel, adding a versatile playmaker to pair with star WR Terry McLaurin, who was secured on a new deal just before the deadline. In the draft, the Commanders selected OT Josh Conerly Jr. in the first round to protect Daniels’ blindside. With added weapons and protection, Washington is well-positioned to build on last season’s momentum.

The Giants endured another disappointing campaign in 2024, finishing 3-14, the worst record in franchise history. Issues piled up across the roster, from a carousel at quarterback to injuries, shaky pass protection and an offense that rarely found rhythm. The struggles carried into divisional play, as the Giants were swept by all NFC East rivals and stumbled to an 0-10 start for the first time ever. With back-to-back down years, coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen entered the offseason under pressure to reset the team’s direction.

That reset started at quarterback, where the Giants brought in veterans Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston while also drafting Jaxson Dart in the first round to develop as a long-term solution. On defense, New York used the No. 3 overall pick on pass rusher Abdul Carter to fortify the line. The combination of veteran leadership, young talent and a reinforced front gives the Giants hope of moving past last year’s struggles and finding a more competitive footing in 2025.

The Giants and Commanders faced off twice in 2024, with Washington taking both games. In Week 2, the Commanders pulled out a 21-18 win, powered by PK Austin Seibert, who drilled 7 field goals, including the game-winner as time expired. Later in Week 9, Washington completed the season sweep with a 27-22 road victory, once again capitalizing on New York’s offensive struggles. The Commanders’ consistency in both matchups highlighted the gap between the 2 teams during the season.

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Giants at Commanders odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:10 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Giants +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Commanders -275 (bet $275 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Giants +6 (-110) | Commanders -6 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Giants at Commanders key injuries

Giants

OT Andrew Thomas (foot) doubtful

Commanders

Giants at Commanders picks and predictionsPrediction

Commanders 27, Giants 14

PASS.

I like the Commanders to get the victory in their season opener at home, but I’ll take my wager to the spread with the better odds.

BET COMMANDERS -6 (-110).

The Commanders at -6 present value against the Giants because their roster looks more complete on both sides of the ball heading into this matchup. Daniels has McLaurin and Samuel on the outside, one of the stronger receiver pairings in the NFC, and with Conerly added to the line, Washington’s offense should be able to control tempo and attack a Giants defense that gave up plenty of explosive plays last year. Conerly’s presence is especially important against New York’s talented defensive front, which now features rookie Carter alongside established stars Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns. His protection will be key to keeping Daniels comfortable and giving the offense room to operate.

For New York, Wilson will get the start, but he isn’t the same quarterback who once led a team to a Super Bowl. The offensive line remains a major question mark, and that’s a tough task against a Quinn-led defense built on speed, pressure and creating turnovers. Beyond the matchups, Washington has the edge of opening at home, where the crowd will be electric after last year’s NFC Championship run. With momentum, depth and a rowdy environment on their side, the Commanders are well-positioned to cover the 6-point spread.

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BET UNDER 45.5 (-105).

My first instinct leaned toward the Over, but my gut says this game stays Under. With Week 1 bringing limited reps for many starters, some early rust is likely. I expect the Commanders to eventually pull away late, but the lack of cohesion early on should keep the total under the posted number.

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Giants at Commanders odds, picks and predictions

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