Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 1’s game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Miami Dolphins.
Week 1 under a roof gives us clean sightlines and honest speed. Lucas Oil hums when the ball is snapped, and timing wins here. The board says Colts -1.5 with a 47.5 total, but the matchup carries richer context. These teams wore the same AFC cloth for decades; the last meeting finished 16–10 with Miami missing Tua. Layer in environment and stakes, and I expect the middle eight, field position, and red-zone choices to separate two 8–9 teams that want cleaner identities. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 1’s game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Miami Dolphins.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Miami’s structure gives the edge the market keeps shrugging at. Tua completed 73% last year with a 5.9 aDOT, living on rhythm. Indy played single-high on 56.2% of snaps, echoing Lou Anarumo’s 53.9–59.8% history. That shell feeds Tyreek Hill, who posted a 34% targets-per-route rate and 2.72 YPRR against single-high. Jaylen Waddle, in full-time usage, delivered 2.02 YPRR and stresses seams and crossers. The Colts allowed 25.1 points and 229.4 passing yards per game and missed 156 tackles. They also bled 0.56 EPA/play in open coverage, which invites YAC. Miami’s defense held opponents to 314.4 yards per game, fourth best. On contested throws it forced a 32.5 passer rating and -0.42 EPA/play.
Now the giveback. Jonathan Taylor still tilts gaps and drains clock. DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart crush interiors and squeeze doubles. Indy allowed 3.9 yards per carry on left-side runs; Miami gained 3.9 left, which reads even. Daniel Jones brings real rushing juice on keepers and scrambles, stressing edges. Stacked fronts hit Miami at -0.31 EPA/play last year, and pressure dropped Tua’s success rate to 24%. Late last season, the Colts scored on 22.2% of second-half drives, but Miami’s defense allowed scores on 23.8%, which ranked fifth best. That tug-of-war should shape the middle eight.
I expect Miami to make Jones play on schedule, which should mean a busy debut for rookie TE Tyler Warren. They should send five-up simulated pressures to speed his clock. Minkah Fitzpatrick should play robber on thirds and bracket Michael Pittman and Josh Downs from the slot. Edges should set firm lanes and keep Jones in the well. Against Jonathan Taylor, Miami should tilt the front weak, spill runs to pursuit, and rally to tackles. That keeps second-and-long in play and protects young corners.
Dolphins vs. Colts pick, best bet
Week 1 reads cagey, and the dome trims weather noise. I’ll lean usage over a coin-flip spread and cobble a few legs together. I’ll start a parlay Tyreek Hill over 73.5 receiving yards (-110), playable to 76.5 at -120. Single-high at 56.2% keeps glance and drift on the menu, and his 34% TPRR and 2.72 YPRR fit that menu. I’ll also add Jaylen Waddle over 58.5 receiving yards (-110), playable to 62.5 at -120; his 2.02 YPRR in full-time usage tracks the in-breakers. And, just because I you want a Colts angle, Jonathan Taylor under 12.5 receiving yards (-115) follows his nine straight receiving unders, and Miami trimmed RB YAC late. If you prefer situational trends, Miami hit the 1Q moneyline in 8 of 12 and covered the 4Q spread in six straight.
Having said all that? Fins win outright. They’re not happy they’re underdogs to Daniel Jones. Would you be?
Final score: Dolphins 24 — Colts 20. Miami should surge early with scripted speed, then squeeze with tempo control. Tyreek and Waddle should punish single-high with glance and drift, and plenty of underneath savvy, as per usual. De’Von Achane should stretch fits and salt late downs, with a little Ollie Gordon II mixed in. He will not get the zero plays Mike McDaniel glanced at. Minkah Fitzpatrick should flip one drive with route recognition and an exciting pass breakup. And, just generally, I expect Miami to finish drives better indoors and hold the middle eight. That’ll stress Daniel Jones into Daniel Jones mistakes. It’ll be interesting to see just which of the offensive weapons benefit most from his presence at quarterback as opposed to Anthony Richardson’s. You’d think his deep-ball pocket-passing profile would benefit Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, and Alec Pierce the most. They’re all legitimate breakout candidates this year. And we’ll see if Tyler Warren becomes a more reliable option at the tight end position than the ones Daniel Jones had in Big Blue; outside of one Evan Engram year, he never really relied too much on TE binkies.
Price is too good on the Dolphins. They’re a team that loves (read: thrives on) variance and, it’s a high-variance week.
Best bet: Dolphins (-110) at Colts
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!