Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 1’s game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Carolina Panthers.
EverBank’s crowd in Duval charges with heat and impatience, not enchantment, as two rebuilds demand immediate receipts. Liam Coen debuts with a defined tempo and a quarterback who needs a reset, and is positioned for one. Dave Canales arrives with proof of concept and a cleaner pocket for Bryce Young, and plenty of young offensive talent. Between both teams, Carolina owned form since December of 2024; Jacksonville owns the building. DraftKings hangs Jaguars -3.5 with a 46.5 total. This is a crowd that should pressure cadence and checks, especially in two-minute and third-and-medium. Both staffs chase tone, detail, and buy-in from the opening series. I trust Jacksonville’s structure and leverage spots more than Carolina’s travel profile, but both teams here should score. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 1’s game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Carolina Panthers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Jacksonville wins the trenches on script, not just added name value to the O-line. The Panthers allowed 181.3 rushing yards per game last season, worst in the league. They allowed successful runs on 54% of attempts, also worst. Etienne punishes light boxes and stresses edges with 50.0% broken-tackle rate. Jacksonville ranked 26th in rushing yards per game at 101.7, but efficiency lifts under Coen. Motion unlocks linebackers, then RPOs steal free yards. Jacksonville protected the passer best by pressure rate allowed at 16.1%. Carolina produced pressure on only 17.2% of dropbacks, worst in the league. Lawrence will lean on Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter early to tilt coverage. Jacksonville’s passing game flips field position; Etienne closes possessions. Coen scripts quick-game will tag targets to Brian Thomas Jr., which opens up the deep shot off orbit motions. Travis Hunter will sprinkle slot snaps to force nickel tells and light fits. The middle eight should swing Jacksonville’s way with two short fields and ten-plus points. Carolina’s second quarter produced 19 three-and-outs last season, gifting Jacksonville premium field position.
Carolina brings real counters. Young closed 2024 with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions across three starts. The Panthers’ offensive line allowed 36 sacks last season and returns intact. Under pressure, Carolina completed 34.6% of passes, top-four by rate. Heavy fronts bother Jacksonville; they ran successful plays on 30.0% against a heavy rush. Carolina allowed just 24.0% success versus heavy rush, best in the league. That reads like a trap for Jacksonville’s ground game on obvious downs. I erase the trap with pace, condensed splits, and first-read timing. Jacksonville’s defense leaked explosives, allowing 71 completions of 20+ yards, most in the league. They also surrendered 9.4 yards per play against play-action and a 126.0 passer rating on third-and-long. Coen’s style answers by racing to 2nd-and-5, not 3rd-and-10, and forcing Carolina off its best lever. Young answers with mid-zone, boot action, and quick outs to Tetairoa McMillan. Jaycee Horn will shadow Thomas on early downs, but condensed stacks shake free slants. If Coen keeps 11 personnel on the field and hurries tempo to dodge heavy fronts, the fourth quarter drains through Etienne and Tank Bigsby—perhaps a little Tuten as well—on duo.
Panthers vs. Jaguars pick, best bet
Carolina is 7-2 ATS across nine, but 2-15 straight up in their last 17 road games. Jacksonville’s home team total cleared in seven of nine at EverBank. Jacksonville has dropped six straight September games and five straight versus the NFC; I’m going to say they break both.
And yet, the total tempts me more because of the likely fireworks. I’m even targeting a quite a few props in this game for a parlay I’ll link below. Brian Thomas Jr. cleared his receiving-yard line in 14 of 17 games. I attack Brian Thomas Jr. receiving yards over 76.5. Etienne’s rushing prop sits at 40.5; I grade it a buy against a defense allowing 182.2 RB scrimmage yards per game.
I respect Carolina’s ascendant arc and still lay out the difference. They’ll land counterpunches with Tetairoa McMillan and Chuba Hubbard, but the travel profile and run fits leak. Jacksonville’s detail holds under stress, and Coen’s sequencing wins the middle eight. One note from above to remember—Carolina’s second-quarter execution craters: 19 three-and-outs last season, most in the league. Jacksonville squeezes those dead possessions into short fields and points.
I really do think we’re about to be introduced to Travis Hunter, future Hall-of-Famer tomorrow.
Final score: Jaguars 27 – Panthers 23. Trevor Lawrence’s new scheme will help him control pace and down-and-distance. This’ll allow him to stack completions underneath to Brenton Strange and Travis Hunter before hitting sleek seams to Brian Thomas Jr. Travis Etienne will benefit from the better blocking and knife an already-soft second level. That converts red-zone chances into touchdowns, not field goals. Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker compress edges and force Young to throw into tight windows on long downs. Again, the counterpunches will land, and we’ll need that. Lengthened drive after lengthened drive.
Best bet: Jaguars vs. Panthers o46.5 total points (-115)
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Prop parlay: BTJ o76.5 total receiving yards + Travis Etienne o40.5 total rushing yards (+240 parlay odds)
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!