Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 1’s game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Mercedes-Benz Stadium hums before kickoff, and this rivalry resumes with stakes immediately high across the division. Tampa Bay chases a fifth straight crown; Atlanta ushers in the Penix era with urgency and ambition. DraftKings hangs Buccaneers -1.5 with a 45.5 total, inviting declarations rather than cautious hedges today. I accept and lay a number, trusting structure and sequencing more than preseason whispers and August narratives. Bowles brings continuity, blitz timing, and veteran spines; Raheem answers with rookies, length, and a retooled voice. Openers set tone, not standings, and this one should play on schedule, detail, and organizational confidence. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 1’s game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Mayfield’s 2024 was nuclear: 41 touchdowns and third in passing yards across a ruthless vertical attack. He finished seventh in YPA and CPOE, and second in highly accurate throw rate per dropback. Tampa ranked eighth in pass rate over expectation and executed successful plays on 54% of pass attempts. Ulbrich leans two-high at 51.7–54.3% usage, mirroring Atlanta’s 50.3% rate from last season. Mayfield feasted against two-high, leading touchdowns and ranking second in passer rating per dropback. Motion should widen seams: Tampa succeeded on 48.8% with motion while Atlanta allowed 47.9%, stressing rookie nickel Billy Bowman Jr.

Atlanta’s counters carry bite, and the ingredients deserve respect. Against single-high, Penix ranked eighth in yards per attempt and fifth in CPOE during his late-season run. Tampa played single-high 59.5% of snaps, a structure Penix processed cleanly across those metrics. Bijan drives identity; Atlanta averaged 130.5 rushing yards and posted 61% first-quarter rushing success. Mooney, who’s a game-time decision, produced 1.81 yards per route and a 26% first-read share against single-high, amplifying spacing. Drake London and Kyle Pitts will need to show up in a big way tomorrow, and against a leaky Tampa secondary, I think they’ll get plenty of looks. However, Tampa answers all their coverage issues with heat and situational clamps: 25% blitz rate, 50.0 passer rating on contested throws, 30% fourth-quarter rush success allowed.

To stifle Atlanta’s counterpunches, Bowles should force long fields and deny early rhythm. He’ll look to spin single-high to robber on early downs to cap London. Winfield might bracket Pitts on third-and-mediums, while nickels squeeze crossers. On the money downs, lots will fall underneath for Atlanta. Simulated pressures should attack the interior, keeping rush lanes disciplined and Penix boxed. Run blitzes at wide zone would set second-and-9s and invite checkdowns. If edges hold, late shot plays should arrive rushed and contested, and perhaps force a dagger turnover in Tampa’s direction.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons pick, best bet

Context at the window favors Tampa’s structure. The Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS across their last eight September divisional games, a tone-setting profile. Atlanta’s last six games as a home underdog finished under, while Tampa’s last six divisional games finished over. I grade the side stronger than the total, so I anchor on Buccaneers -2.5. For props, I attack Bucky Irving rushing yards over 69.5 at -110, tied to defensive tackling issues. He cleared in 13 of 17 games, and Atlanta ranked 15th in missed tackles and 14th in yards after contact allowed.

I expect a measured shootout steered by red-zone precision and middle-eight control. Tampa should win details, own leverage, and exit Atlanta with an opening-day statement. The cover should stem from passing efficiency, motion advantages, and late-game stops, not turnover luck or randomness.

I think the Falcons are going to surprise a lot of people this season; I chose them to win this division. Penix should be really impressive, and the defensive execution with some new promising pieces should make Atlanta a fun, live dog tomorrow. I just think the Bucs start hot.

Final score: Buccaneers 27 – Falcons 23. Baker Mayfield should strafe two-high with motion tags, stacking touchdowns and chain-moving efficiency through four quarters. Bucky Irving should punish edges and clear 70 rushing, ripping explosives through loosened fits and light boxes. Haason Reddick and Calijah Kancey should squeeze Penix’s platform on money downs and protect the cover.

Best bet: Buccaneers -1.5 (-115) at Falcons

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Best prop lean: Bucky Irving o69.5 total rushing yards (-110)

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!