Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 1’s game between the New England Patriots and the Las Vegas Raiders.

Foxborough opens with urgency and noise, not ceremony, as a new era demands proof. Mike Vrabel steps into power and resets expectations immediately with a hardened defensive identity. Pete Carroll arrives in Las Vegas energized, challenging a hostile building he never conquered across decades of matchups. The Raiders have never won at Gillette Stadium, a needle that pricks every veteran. New England owns perfection against them on opening day, fueling pointed pregame speeches spirited even more by the advent of a new era in New England. History between both rosters tightens every snap and amplifies mistakes today, especially on special teams. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 1’s game between the New England Patriots and the Las Vegas Raiders.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Gillette’s noise punishes miscommunication and rewards poise throughout two-minute and third-down crucibles. Both staffs chase instant credibility with procedural cleanliness, fourth-down clarity, and situational mastery. Josh McDaniels returns to call plays, sharpening sequencing and situational mechanics from snap one. Stefon Diggs won’t be limited in his ACL return, which will expand Drake May’es first-read leverage across the intermediate windows. Drake Maye will impress, here.

Both offenses averaged 4.8 yards per play last season across inconsistent, injury-riddled stretches. Points per play favored Vegas, 0.290 to 0.281, signaling sharper sequencing and situational execution. Vegas passed on 64.32% of snaps and chased efficiency underneath from spread and condensed formations. Seventy-four percent of attempts traveled ten yards or less, emphasizing timing and leverage manipulation. New England allowed 6.7 yards per dropback on those throws, a glaring structural weakness. That marries perfectly with Geno Smith’s rhythm passing profile and Carroll’s spacing principles. Raiders ranked 13th in passing yards, but 32nd rushing, forcing creative light-box solutions. Patriots finished 32nd passing and 13th rushing, limiting explosive bandwidth and comeback elasticity. Vegas’ design stresses linebackers and isolates nickel corners in space through motion and stacks. Clean underneath volume sets up red-zone efficiency against rotating safeties and compressed windows. New England upgraded their protection with Morgan Moses at right tackle and Garrett Bradbury at center. Early-down offensive EPA expectations rise a bit under McDaniels, tightening the margin, but not flipping it.

New England’s defense still owns strengths worth acknowledging, even after roster turnover. Their pass defense ranked 10th by yardage and contests efficiently with disciplined eyes. Third and long defense led the league at 8.7% allowed, suffocating predictable concepts. The Raiders’ offense converted only seven percent on third and ten-plus, bottom of the league. That looks damning at first glance against disciplined coverage and disguised pressures. Play-action also exposes Vegas; they allowed 0.19 EPA there during last season’s tape. Yet the Patriots defense allowed a league-worst 0.27 EPA versus play-action, inviting misdirection. Carroll & co. will know this, and they’ll answer by marrying unabashed Ashton Jeanty volume and Smith’s efficient fakes to manipulate linebackers. Early-down rhythm should then prevents obvious passing downs, which neuters that third-and-long edge that’d kill the Raiders consistently. Field position might not matter if Vegas stays ahead on first down. New DC Terrell Williams installed a sturdier front in the offseason, with Milton Williams beside Christian Barmore to juice interior pressure. But Ashton Jeanty is made to absorb contact from a front like this. It won’t kill drives.

Raiders vs. Patriots pick, best bet

Trends tilt my bankroll toward Vegas and targeted props with defined matchup advantages. Patriots are 1-5 ATS their last six as favorites, a market correction waiting. Their home games flew over in six straight last season, driven by defensive lapses. The Raiders went under in five of six, tempering my total conviction, despite shootout whispers among fans and industry pundits.

I pass the total and attack the side and props with conviction today. Maye under pressure targets tight ends 42.9% and running backs 28.6%, a clear funnel. Raiders allowed six tight end receptions per game last season, a leveraged receiving doorway. Patriots tight ends averaged 9.4 targets per game last year, sustaining chain-moving volume. Hunter Henry 4+ receptions (+110) is the cleanest prop exposure in this build. Geno Smith pass attempts unders hit in ten of eleven, supporting a balanced script again. I upgrade New England’s median offense, so the total stays a pass, not an under.

New England is much improved, but I think this matchup belongs to Las Vegas from whistle to whistle. The Raiders’ quick game exploits New England’s short-throw inefficiency with ruthless consistency. Sustained drives will beat splash plays in this building today, especially in leverage moments. I take the points at +3 (-110) and the Henry prop confidently at regulated stakes today. Meyers’ TmTGT% and FPPT held even with Bowers on the field, preserving his third-down utility. And, honestly, the +3 is a gift, re. no wiggle risk. Jeanty is a wild card in the best way, and should give New England’s front a run for their stamina.

Final score: Raiders 24 – Patriots 20. Maxx Crosby’s rabid dominance will compress Maye’s time to work through the reads his additional offensive weapons and new scheme affords. It should, at several points, force begrudging New England field-goal decisions, not touchdowns. Jeanty will show us the meaning of grind. Brock Bowers will manipulate heavy defensive leverage, and unlock Jakobi Meyers on money downs with precision. There’ll likely be a Dont’e Thornton sighting or two. And, if there is, watch out for an away upset. TreVeyon Henderson will produce in his first game for the Patriots, yet New England might still stall inside the twenty under tightened spacing.

Vegas finally punctures the Gillette hex and banks a signature opener for Carroll. And the Raiders didn’t draft Ashton Jeanty to ease him in in the first game. He’s going to absolutely eat.

Best bet: Raiders +3 (-120) at Patriots

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Best prop lean: Hunter Henry 4+ receptions (+110)

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!