Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 1’s game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Houston Texans.

SoFi hums, not glitters, as two recent playoff winners touch grass. I get a live test of McVay’s tweaks with Davante Adams beside Puka Nacua. DeMeco Ryans arrives with a top-five defensive profile and a new-playcaller edge. DraftKings posts Rams -3, a clean football number without a tax. I expect leverage to live in usage and motion, not the hook. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 1’s game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Houston Texans.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

I lean into what Los Angeles already does best. The Rams led the league in motion per dropback at 75.7% last year. Houston punished mistakes late, forcing the most interceptions from Weeks 10–18 and trimming CPOE to sixth-lowest. But completed balls stung them: 11.5 yards per completion allowed and a 5.6% TD rate. Stafford’s red-zone touchdown rate sat at 22.5%, a cold streak Adams should warm. Los Angeles also averaged 0.76 EPA per play versus light rush, best in the league, which should matter if Houston keeps pressure honest. If Derek Stingley Jr. travels with Adams, I expect motion to funnel glance routes to Puka Nacua. McVay should keep backs in protection and attack split-safety voids, since the Rams targeted RBs only 10% last year. That approach should marry with Los Angeles’ 5.1 YAC profile against a defense that allowed 5.4 YAC to wideouts.

Houston brings real counters. Stroud’s line turned over at four spots, with a rookie at left tackle. His 2024 sag hit 7.0 YPA and an NFL-high 21.1% of dropbacks losing at least 1.0 EPA. The Texans ran successful plays on only 34% of rushes, worst in the league. Their coverage stiffened late, yet motion stresses rules before the ball. Rams receivers produced 5.1 YAC, while Houston allowed 5.4 YAC to wideouts, worst leaguewide. I respect Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, but McVay’s sequencing should keep Stafford ahead of the sticks. Nico Collins still threatens as the alpha after 1,006 yards and seven scores last year. Jayden Higgins starts opposite him and brings a 2.2% drop rate and 55.6% contested-catch mark from college. In Weeks 15–17 last year, Rams corners allowed the seventh-most perimeter receiving yards, which Higgins can test on fades. Nick Chubb profiles as the counter on duo, but his 1.96 yards after contact and 2% explosive rate worry me. Los Angeles did allow the 12th-most rushing yards late and a sixth-highest missed-tackle rate, so Chubb still owns volume paths.

Texans vs. Rams pick, best bet

How I’d stifle Houston’s counterpunches. I expect five-man surfaces on pass downs to set protection rules and squeeze edges. Brackets should shade Nico Collins on third-and-medium with a robber jumping digs. Simulated pressures would bait the rookie left tackle, while duo and jet action should slow Houston’s wide alignments. I’d expect trap rotations late to close first-read slants and force throw-aways.

The market context nudges me toward a prop, not the side. The Rams are 7-1 ATS across their last eight and 6-2 ATS in recent Week 1s. Houston sits 1-5-1 ATS in September and 5-15 straight up across their last 20 versus NFC teams. First-half scoring tilts cagey. The Rams scored on 29.1% of first-half drives, fourth-worst. Houston’s defense allowed first-half scores on 31.6%, fifth-best. Red zone tilts the other way. The Texans’ offense managed 3.9 points per red-zone trip. The Rams allowed 3.8, tied-best. With DraftKings at -3 and the moneyline expensive, my favorite edge lives in Kyren’s usage (o68.5 total rushing yards [-115]), and buying the wiggle in a market-respect move and taking the Rams -2.5 (-135).

I expect a controlled script where motion and run fits set the finish. The Rams should own the middle eight and squeeze a late possession into points or clock.

Final score: Rams 23 – Houstons 20. Kyren Williams should hammer duo and mid-zone and clear 20 touches as Los Angeles protects its edges. Puka Nacua should stack separation on glance and drift, flipping field position without forcing hero shots. Davante Adams should lift red-zone conversion and stabilize third downs when the Texans spin coverage. Houston lands flashes with Stroud to Collins, but protection churn should show up in two-minute and long yardage.

Best bet: Rams -2.5 (-135) vs. Texans

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!

Best prop lean: Kyren Williams o68.5 rushing yards (-115)

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!