Quarterback Aaron Rodgers started 17 games for the Jets last season, and Justin Fields started six games for the Steelers. Rodgers and Fields traded places this offseason and will face each other in a Week 1 matchup between the Steelers and Jets at MetLife Stadium today at 1 p.m. ET.

This matchup features two of the toughest defenses in the league and is expected to be a low-scoring slugfest. The over/under of 38.5 points at the best PA sportsbooks is the lowest of any Week 1 game, and it’s not particularly close.

Let’s break down the matchup and discuss some Steelers vs. Jets predictions and best bets.

Steelers vs. Jets predictions and best betsPoint spread pick: Steelers -2.5 (-118 at FanDuel)Over/under pick: Under 38.5 (-112 at DraftKings)Best prop bet: Jaylen Warren over 13.5 rushing attempts (+102 at FanDuel)

NOTE: Odds are based on the best value our experts find while writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

This game has all the makings of an ugly, defensive battle. The Jets and Steelers were third and 12th, respectively, in total defense last year, and should once again be among the best units in the league in 2025.

Neither offense is particularly compelling, either. There is a reason this game has such a low over/under number. I usually hate taking the under on such a low line, but there is no other way to bet this game.

Expect both offenses to lean on their rushing attacks led by the Steelers’ Jaylen Warren and the Jets’ Breece Hall. Fields and Braelon Allen will also factor into the Jets’ ground game, while the Steelers will also mix in Kenneth Gainwell and rookie Kaleb Johnson. The run-heavy offenses, along with the stout defenses, should keep the scoring way down.

When it comes to the point spread, I’m simply trusting the team with the better (albeit mostly washed) quarterback that knows how to win. The Steelers are familiar with Fields after having him in the building last year, and their aggressive defense will know how to exploit his weaknesses in accuracy and decision-making.

My favorite prop bet focuses on Steelers running back Jaylen Warren’s role in the offense. I expect Warren to be more of a workhorse than he has been in the past. With Najee Harris now in Los Angeles, the Steelers recently signaled their commitment to Warren by extending his contract and paying him $6 million per season.

That is a legitimate starting running back contract, indicating that’s exactly what Warren will be this season. He only had one game with more than 13 carries last season, but he had 11 or more in two of his final three games after becoming more of a lead back late in the season. His volume is going up this season, starting with at least 14 carries this week.

Steelers vs. Jets moneyline odds analysis

I like the Steelers to win and cover, but if I’m betting on the moneyline in this game, the better value is on the Jets. Here is how either team could win.

How the Steelers could win as the favorites

Best odds: -144 at FanDuel

As usual, it’s all about the defense for Pittsburgh. The line in particular should wreak havoc on the Jets’ front, which just lost its best offensive lineman for the season.

First-round pick Derrick Harmon was ruled out for this game, but the Steelers still have one of the best defenders in the league in T.J. Watt, along with standouts like Cam Heyward and Alex Highsmith. That defensive front is going to make it difficult for Fields to operate from the pocket, which will make the Jets’ offense one-dimensional.

Rodgers may be well past his prime, but he’s still the better quarterback in this game, and DK Metcalf gives him a legitimate No. 1 receiver. Between Rodgers, Mike Tomlin’s coaching, and the defense, the Steelers provide way more reasons for confidence than the Jets do.

How the Jets could win as the underdog

Best odds: +136 at DraftKings

In such a tight matchup with a 2.5-point spread, it’s really anyone’s game. The Jets are home underdogs, and Week 1 can be unpredictable. It’s not hard to imagine scenarios where the Jets pull off a small upset.

Besides the defense dominating, the most likely way that happens is with Hall and Fields finding success on the ground. The Steelers were better against the pass than they were against the run last year, finishing 8th in pass defense EPA and 17th in run defense EPA.

Running the ball effectively would also help slow down the Steelers’ ferocious pass rush and take some pressure off the Jets’ questionable offensive line. That is the key to the Jets winning this game.

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