Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 1’s Sunday Night Football game between the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens.

Sunday night in Orchard Park is more than a game: Highmark’s final home opener adds gravity. The air is clean, footing sure, noise constant. January’s 27–25 finish still lingers, and the AFC’s chase begins here. The board sits near pick’em with a 50.5 total. Expect the middle eight, red zone, quarterback legs, and fourth-down nerve to decide it. Precision, not panic, will earn the edge under these lights. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 1’s Sunday Night Football game between the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens. Let’s go.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Week 1 under lights at Highmark brings clean air and honest speed. It is the last home opener in this stadium, so the noise matters. The board toggled all week between Buffalo -1.5 and Baltimore -1, with 50.5 posted. Last January ended 27–25, sealed by a dropped two-point in the snow. Buffalo carries eleven straight home wins and a 13-4 primetime record since 2022. Josh Allen is 25-3 in his last 28 at home, which travels. Baltimore brings Harbaugh’s Week 1 edge and a 19-5-1 ATS clip as underdogs since 2018. I expect tempo control and middle-eight leverage to shape this, not pyrotechnics.

Zach Orr’s defense morphed midseason last year from leaky to stingy on schedule downs. From Week 9 onward, opponents completed 59.6% with only 1,819 passing yards allowed. Baltimore then held Allen under 200 yards and zero passing touchdowns in both meetings. That history underpins the SNF board listing Allen under 229.5 passing yards at -110. BetMGM posts his yardage line around 232.5 with -115 each way, confirming market respect. Allen’s regular-season passer rating against Baltimore sits 67.7, his worst versus frequent opponents. Khalil Shakir led Buffalo in 2024 targets and slot yards, a pressure-release against pattern-match. Rookie safety Malaki Starks debuts to clamp crossers and help on scramble rules.

Ravens vs. Bills pick, best bet

Let’s keep it tight with two props that fit the matchup and the market. Derrick Henry over 17.5 carries at +100, playable to 18.5 at -110, is my first ticket. Baltimore should lean structure over splash without Isaiah Likely and Patrick Ricard, which pushes more 11 and zone runs. Henry logged 199 rushing yards in Week 4, then 84 in January as Buffalo condensed boxes and bled clock. The Bills allowed red-zone trips on 35% of opponent drives last year, 30th in the league, which sustains carries in the low red. Volume follows script when Baltimore controls downs and distance. The second play is Mark Andrews anytime touchdown at +190 , playable to +160. Buffalo’s corner room looks thin if Tre’Davious White sits, which forces help outside and opens seams. Andrews carried top-two team usage in the red area and remains Lamar’s trusted window-beater. Baltimore’s red-zone finish ranked among the league’s best; Buffalo’s defense ranked near the bottom by drive rate. That blend—heavy Henry between the 20s, Andrews inside the 10—fits how this game wants to be played. And, not to mention, there’s all the narrative second-shoe-dropping to Andrews catching a ball in the endzone tonight. Ahem.

Scoreboard résumés shout offense, but pace and structure mute the track meet. Baltimore averaged 30.5 points with 187.6 rushing yards, first in the league last year. Buffalo averaged 30.9 points and finished ninth in both passing and rushing yardage. Yet Buffalo ranked 29th in third-down defense and 24th in passing yards allowed. The Ravens’ pass defense allowed volume before the bye, then tightened dramatically after Week 8. Historical shape still matters for totals, and this series trends toward controlled possessions. The matchup shows six unders in the last eight meetings, including last January’s 27–25 finish. Buffalo’s September games as underdogs have repeatedly cashed unders by market logs. ESPN’s projection basically splits it, giving Buffalo a 51.1% win chance. Razor margins and field goals loom larger than home-run shots.

Special teams often swing early September games, and both sides enter with notable changes. Buffalo placed Tyler Bass on injured reserve and turns to 41-year-old Matt Prater. Prater is steady, yet long range can drift at Highmark when wind swirls. Baltimore rides rookie Tyler Loop, who hit from 61 in August and five from 50-plus. Field position will steer decisions, especially in the middle eight and fringe zones. Market props echo a clock-chewing script—Allen passing unders, Jackson interception under, Henry carries over. Baltimore’s improved coverage and Buffalo’s red-zone volatility nudge drives toward threes, not sixes.

Still, while a script might suggest the under, I’m wary. And I’ve got more faith in the Bills. We’re going Buffalo ML (+100.)

Final score: Bills 24 – Ravens 23. Joe Brady should layer tempo, empty, and play-action to stress rules. Allen should set tone with designed keepers and second-reaction explosives. Shakir and Kincaid will work option space while motion unlocks leverage. That rhythm could keep Baltimore out of heavier answers on their own offensive side of the ball, without Likely and Ricard. Defensively, Buffalo should rush with integrity, squeezing edges and forcing patient throws. Sim pressures would appear on third and long, with green-dog fits closing escape lanes. The middle eight should tilt blue with a two-minute march, then a scripted drive. Field position could matter; Prater’s leg would bank fringe points. Noise should aid communication on both lines, especially protection checks. In the fourth, Allen’s legs can finish it in the low red. Buffalo can survive the body-blow game and close with kneeldowns.

Best bet: Bills (+100) vs. Ravens

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Best parlay lean: Derrick Henry 18+ rushing attempts + Mark Andrews Anytime TD scorer (+390)

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