Week by week, more and more teams are getting early-season tests. This week, it’s No. 6 Georgia heading to Knoxville to take on No. 15 Tennessee.
The Bulldogs have coasted by the likes of Marshall and Austin Peay so far. Those games are as close as college football gets to a preseason. Now, it’s the real thing. Georgia opened as a 7.5-point favorite, but that has moved all the way down to 3.5. That’s a big move, but there are some numbers to back it up. For one, SP+, the projection model of ESPN’s Bill Connelly, is picking Tennessee to win. For what it’s worth, The Athletic’s Austin Mock has Georgia as a 3.5-point favorite, which matches the current betting line.
That’s not the only big game in what is looking like a crowded SEC. Florida goes to LSU fresh off a home loss to South Florida. The No. 3 Tigers are favored by 7.5 points, but this one has also moved after opening at 9.5.
There are two other top-25 matchups in what looks like a solid week on paper: No. 18 South Florida at No. 5 Miami and No. 16 Texas A&M at No. 8 Notre Dame. Our staff has made picks against the spread for these games and a few more of the most interesting matchups of Week 3. Before discussing the matchups more, let’s look at the picks:
All games listed are on Saturday, and times are Eastern.
Big programs clash in the SEC
No. 6 Georgia at No. 15 Tennessee — 3:30 p.m. on ABC
Florida at No. 3 LSU — 7:30 p.m. on ABC
Georgia’s panic meter is picking up some readings after the Bulldogs only scored 28 points against Austin Peay. There’s some noise in the data, though. The Bulldogs still more than doubled the Governors in total yards, and the game was marred by a weather delay. How much of a red flag was that? The beauty is we’ll find out on Saturday.
Quarterback Gunner Stockton didn’t account for any touchdowns last week, but he also hasn’t turned it over in two starts yet. Will Georgia be sharper against its first real opponent? Is 2025 Georgia more like the recent Michigan teams with ball-control offenses and stout defenses? Or is the Bulldog offense just not that good?
Tennessee is a good team to draw out the answer to those questions, but not a team that is likely to let an unpolished opponent go unpunished. The Volunteers have put up 117 points so far (granted, 72 were against East Tennessee State last week), and Joey Aguilar is making the Knoxville faithful feel better about Nico Iamaleava leaving.
Georgia has won eight straight in the series and has scored at least 30 in 12 of the last 13 meetings. Both are in doubt this week.
If the Georgia panic meter is registering low-to-mid numbers, the Florida one is broken because the numbers went too high. The Gators entered the season with plenty of hope based on a strong finish to last season and the return of quarterback DJ Lagway. That evaporated with last week’s 18-16 loss to South Florida.
One loss can be forgivable, especially in the 12-team playoff era (Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois and then made the national title game after all), but Florida’s schedule does not allow for losses in the games it was expected to win. A 1-1 start can turn into 1-5 real quick with LSU, Miami, Texas and Texas A&M next up. The first three are ranked inside the top 10, and Texas A&M is in the top 20. If South Florida proved difficult, things could get ugly in Gainesville. Florida has turned into a must-see team for the wrong reasons.
LSU hasn’t exactly gotten its offense to fire yet. The Tigers scored 17 points in a win at Clemson and followed that up with a 23-7 home showing against Louisiana Tech. LSU is comfortably favored, but there could be some warning signs in Baton Rouge as well.
How will these teams look now?
No. 12 Clemson at Georgia Tech — noon on ESPN
Wisconsin at No. 19 Alabama — noon on ABC
No. 18 South Florida at No. 5 Miami — 4:30 p.m. on The CW
No. 16 Texas A&M at No. 8 Notre Dame — 7:30 p.m. on NBC
In each of these four games, one of the teams is getting a second marquee look after featuring in a big Week 1 matchup. Clemson lost to LSU, Alabama floundered at Florida State and Miami knocked off Notre Dame. While those games felt big at the time, we don’t really know how good any team is in Week 1. This week’s games can serve as a check-in.
Is Clemson actually much worse than we thought, or is LSU very good (that applies on the Bayou this week as well)? Is Alabama as much of a mess as they looked in Tallahassee? Is Miami a real contender? Will South Florida be the team to tell us that? Can Notre Dame avoid a dreaded 0-2 start?
Clemson is the only road favorite, but it’s by a modest 3-point spread. The Tigers were unimpressive last week against Troy, trailing 16-3 at halftime before rallying for a 27-16 win. Georgia Tech is 2-0 with a win at Colorado. Clemson has won nine straight in the series.
Wisconsin hasn’t looked like a team that can actually push Bama in Tuscaloosa. The Badgers put up just 17 points against Miami Ohio in the opener and led Middle Tennessee State 14-10 at halftime before pulling away. However, the defense has given up just 10 points so far, and we don’t really know where Alabama fits in yet. The Crimson Tide beat Louisiana Monroe 73-0, but style points against overmatched opponents only count for so much. Blowing out Wisconsin would begin to restore confidence in this version of Alabama.
Not many would’ve expected South Florida to be playing one of the more intriguing matchups of the week. The game is on The CW after all. However, wins against Boise State (34-7!) and Florida will do that. The Bulls are the extremely early leader for the Group of 5’s College Football Playoff spot. A loss to Miami probably wouldn’t change that, but a win would really cement the Bulls’ position. The Hurricanes are favored by three scores, so it almost feels like a nothing-to-gain spot for them, but wins against Notre Dame and what looks like a good South Florida team would be a nice nonconference boost to Miami’s resume.
Notre Dame is in need of a win against Texas A&M. In the 12-team playoff era, 10-2 with 10 straight wins would probably still be enough to get in, but the room for error would be gone, and the Fighting Irish would probably need one or two teams still on the schedule to be better than expected so ND can have a quality win. That means this isn’t truly a must-win for ND, but it’s as close as you can get in Week 3. Last year, the Irish smothered A&M’s offense, but Marcel Reed is the Aggie quarterback now, and he is a much different matchup than Conner Weigman was. Coach Mike Elko could also use a big win after the Aggies dropped four of five to end last season.
Potential sleepers in the SEC
Arkansas at No. 17 Ole Miss — 7 p.m. on ESPN
Vanderbilt at No. 11 South Carolina — 7:45 p.m. on SEC Network
Excuse the SEC-heavy focus this week, but West Virginia took some steam out of the Backyard Brawl against Pitt by losing to Ohio, and the Big Ten only has one game with a spread of two touchdowns or fewer, and that’s Minnesota at Cal. Both teams are 2-0, and that could be a fun Pac-12 ACC After Dark viewing, but at least for this week, the SEC has more interesting games.
Ole Miss is a touchdown-favorite against Arkansas in a meeting of 2-0 teams. The Razorbacks have put up 108 points in wins against Alabama A&M and Arkansas State, while Ole Miss eked out a 30-23 win at Kentucky in SEC play last week. Ole Miss sophomore quarterback Austin Simmons was 13-for-24 with a pair of interceptions, but Missouri transfer Kewan Lacy went off for 138 rushing yards and a touchdown. As with everyone else, it’s hard to tell how good these teams are, but Saturday’s meeting will be a decent data point.
If you’re looking for a quarterback matchup, Diego Pavia vs. LaNorris Sellers is a fun one. Both are dangerous runners with quality wins on their resumes, but neither has been prolific so far in 2025. It’s unusual to have a common opponent by Week 3, but both Vanderbilt and South Carolina beat Virginia Tech already. Pavia passed for just 193 yards, but did rush for 61 and led Vandy to a 24-point win on the road. Sellers had 209 passing yards in a 24-11 slog against the Hokies in Atlanta in Week 1. Even against South Carolina State, Sellers was 11-for-19 for 128 yards. The point total is listed at 48.5 on BetMGM, which reflects the play of both offenses so far.
Wild card picks
Every week, our pickers select another bet of their choosing that isn’t limited to the games listed above.
Matt Baker: Tulane -1.5 vs. Duke
Mark Cooper: Memphis -3.5 at Troy
Seth Emerson: Temple +21.5 vs. Oklahoma
Sam Khan Jr.: Cal +1.5 vs. Minnesota
Austin Mock: Memphis -3.5 at Troy
Dan Santaromita: South Florida/Miami under 57.5
Daniel Shirley: Oregon -27.5 at Northwestern
David Ubben: Temple +21.5 vs. Oklahoma
Chris Vannini: Boston College/Stanford over 43.5
Picks standings
WriterWeek 2Overall
Sam Khan Jr.
5-4
17-8
Matt Baker
4-5
14-11
David Ubben
7-2
14-11
Seth Emerson
5-4
12-12
Dan Santaromita
3-6
12-13
Chris Vannini
5-4
12-13
Mark Cooper
4-5
10-15
Austin Mock
2-7
9-16
Daniel Shirley
1-7-1
7-16-1
(Photo of Gunner Stockton: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)