Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 2’s game between the Tennessee Titans and the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.

Week 2 in Nashville brings an old-vs-new quarterback contrast as Matthew Stafford and the 1–0 Rams visit Cam Ward and the 0–1 Titans at Nissan Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 14 (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS). DraftKings hangs Los Angeles -5.5 with a total parked around 41.5–42.0, and early ticket splits lean toward the home dog. The setting is late-summer heat—about 87° with a light 4–5 mph breeze and virtually no rain—so execution, not weather, should decide it. Los Angeles arrives off a 14–9 grinder over Houston behind Stafford’s efficiency and a defense that allowed just 265 yards. Tennessee returns from a 20–12 loss in Denver with more momentum on defense than in its number-one-overall-pick-led Cam Ward offense. It’s a veteran timing attack against a rebuilding offense, framed by a low total and the expectation of a field-position game. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 2’s game between the Tennessee Titans and the Los Angeles Rams.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Los Angeles lays five and a hook in Nashville with a low total in the low-40s, and the thought starts with experience and efficiency. Quarterback Matthew Stafford completed 21 of 29 for 245 yards and a touchdown in the opener, piloting an offense that created 18 first downs and a +2.0 yards-per-play gap (5.7 vs. 3.7) relative to Tennessee’s output in Denver. Quarterback Cam Ward managed 12-of-28 for 112 yards as Tennessee finished with seven first downs, six sacks taken for 50 lost yards, and just 133 total yards. The contrast in down-to-down performance fits the market: Los Angeles is built to stack small edges that cover a one-score number.

The advanced lens sharpens that picture. Los Angeles’ defense ranks sixth in EPA/play allowed (-0.145), with a stingy -0.132 dropback EPA allowed and -0.164 rush EPA allowed. Tennessee’s offense sits 32nd in EPA/play (-0.429), including a brutal -0.425 dropback EPA with a 16.7% dropback success rate and a -0.437 rush EPA (33.3% rush success). That imbalance shows up in situationals. Los Angeles was one of the two best third-down defenses in Week 1 (only Denver graded better), while Tennessee failed to score a touchdown, settling for four Joey Slye field goals. Red-zone execution mirrored the theme: Los Angeles went 2-for-3; Houston went 0-for-1; Tennessee never reached paydirt in Denver.

Stafford’s individual efficiency also tilts this matchup. He ranks 16th in the EPA+CPOE composite (0.081) after Week 1 with a positive dropback EPA (+0.017), which dovetails with his quick-trigger time to throw and clean pre-snap pictures. Ward is 24th in the same composite (-0.039), and that was with pressure on roughly 50% of his dropbacks and six sacks absorbed. Los Angeles allowed three sacks for 21 yards against Houston and still generated 7.0 net yards per pass play; Tennessee’s passing game produced 1.8. That is how covers are built even when the point total is modest.

Personnel dynamics reinforce the lean. Wide receiver Puka Nacua opened with 10 grabs for 130 yards and leads the league in receptions through one week. Running back Kyren Williams handled 18 carries and the lone rushing score, keeping the play-action menu intact. On the other side, running back Tony Pollard saw 19 touches but found little daylight; the Titans’ offensive line flagged protection and penalty issues all afternoon. Tennessee committed 13 penalties for 131 yards—hidden yardage that destroys a field-position game and magnifies a bottom-tier offensive EPA profile. Even turnover luck couldn’t mask it: Tennessee finished +2 in takeaways and still scored 12; Los Angeles was +1 and closed out a 14-9 win.

Rams vs. Titans pick, best bet

Defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons can still wreck a series for the Titans, and Tennessee’s defense graded fifth in EPA/play allowed (-0.146) with a top-five pass defense by dropback EPA (-0.180), so this is not a shootout script. But the Rams don’t need explosives to separate; they need stays on schedule. Los Angeles’ offense, while only 23rd in overall EPA/play (-0.072), posted a positive dropback EPA (+0.017) and a 44.1% dropback success rate, which blends with Sean McVay’s quick game and middle-of-the-field access for Nacua and Davante Adams. Heat around 87° with minimal wind points to clean passing conditions, and an early lead pushes Tennessee toward the one thing it struggled most to do last week: protect long enough for Ward to attack intermediate windows.

The market and form trends are aligned. Los Angeles has covered six straight on the road and is 8–1 ATS across the last nine overall; Tennessee is 0–8 ATS in its last eight at home and 1–6 ATS in the last seven. Multiple probability models cluster near two-thirds for Los Angeles to win (≈67%), with score bands living in the low-20s for the Rams and the mid-teens for Tennessee. That maps onto a one-possession spread and a total that stays honest but not prohibitive.

I’ll also hit a play on Puka’s o7.5 receptions. This script favors volume, not splash plays. Stafford’s quick-rhythm approach and Los Angeles’ positive dropback EPA funnel targets to Nacua on crossers, digs, and option routes, while Tennessee’s pass defense—excellent on an EPA basis—encourages underneath completions rather than explosives. Nacua just posted 10-130, and his route inventory dovetails with a script that values chain-moving over yards-per-catch. If the market hangs 5.5, that becomes a stronger position with light ladder exposure to 8+.

I see this at Rams 23, Titans 16. The cleanest case for the side remains sustained efficiency. Los Angeles wins early downs, avoids the penalty landmines that buried Tennessee, and leverages a defense that is top-six in EPA/play allowed against an offense that is dead last in EPA/play and success rate. Between third-down superiority, a stark net yards-per-pass gap, and better ball distribution, the favorite should put this game on script by halftime and nurse it home with Williams and quick-game extensions.

And, yes—EPA/play alone isn’t enough of a signal to force a lean. It is, however, when you consider all the above, and the state of both coaching staffs. McVay is already in his bag, and, in most press conferences, Brian Callahan looks every bit overmatched.

Best bet: Rams -5.5 (-105) at Titans

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Best prop lean: Puka Nacua 8+ receptions (+130)

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