Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 2’s game between the New Orleans Saints and the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
The Superdome opens its doors to a bruised heavyweight and a hungry underdog, and the market is still trying to sort out which story wins. San Francisco sits -3 with a total of 40.5, yet the pre-game eye test says this one should be 50%–50%. Injury context bends this matchup toward attrition football. QB Brock Purdy is expected to miss; QB Mac Jones steps in. TE George Kittle is on IR, and WR Jauan Jennings hasn’t practiced. That strips Kyle Shanahan’s pass-game spine and almost forces an RB Christian McCaffrey–centric plan. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 2’s game between the New Orleans Saints and the San Francisco 49ers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
In Seattle, San Francisco still reached 384 total yards, but it was a slogging 119 on 36 rushes (3.3 YPC) with nine penalties for 61 yards and two interceptions before the late winner. McCaffrey’s usage screamed “feature back”: 31 touches for 142 scrimmage yards and a week-high nine first downs. With TE Jake Tonges stepping into Kittle’s role and K Eddy Piñeiro now handling kicks, San Francisco feels built to settle for threes if the red-zone creativity isn’t there without Kittle’s gravity and Jennings’ chain-moving. On the team-metrics ledger, San Francisco sat at +0.56 EPA/dropback and -0.17 EPA/rush; subtracting Purdy, Kittle, and possibly Jennings almost guarantees a step down from the +0.56 while leaning harder into a ground game that already graded at -0.17.
New Orleans will test that narrow path. The Saints defense just held Arizona to 276 total yards (130 passing), and the pressure packages hit—five sacks in the opener. The flags were the killer: 13 penalties for 89 yards, many drive-warping. Clean those up in the dome and this unit profiles as stingy enough to keep the script low. The Saints’ anytime-TD board underscores who has to finish drives: Alvin Kamara sits at 43.1% to score, with Chris Olave at 26.5% and Rashid Shaheed at 25.3%. That pecking order fits a game plan that leans on Kamara touches and selective shots. Offensively, New Orleans opened the season at a clean 0.00 EPA/dropback and -0.04 EPA/rush, which mirrors the 20–13 box score—steady movement without explosive payoffs.
The other half of the total equation is whether New Orleans can dent a 49ers defense that looked refreshed. QB Spencer Rattler went 27-for-46 for 214 yards with four scrambles for 29 in Week 1; the passing was efficient enough between the 20s but didn’t find the end zone. TE Juwan Johnson caught eight for 76, Olave grabbed seven for 55, and Kamara punched in their lone TD on 11 carries for 45. Now the opponent is a front that just held Seattle to 230 yards (146 passing) and 3.2 YPC, with DE Nick Bosa stacking multiple TFLs and a sack and LB Fred Warner pacing the tackle sheet. Red-zone execution was the Saints’ problem (1-for-4), and San Francisco traditionally forces long fields by winning early downs. That’s an under brew: compressed margins, third-and-longs, kicking decisions. Pair that with both teams carrying negative or neutral rushing EPA (SF -0.17; NO -0.04) and only one side previously above water in pass EPA with Purdy (+0.56), and the efficiency math trends down in this spot.
49ers vs. Saints pick, best bet
Each of the 49ers’ last six after a win has stayed under. Seven of New Orleans’ last eight Week 2 games versus NFC teams have stayed under. Four of the Saints’ last five home games have stayed under. Add in San Francisco’s ATS wobble after wins (0-10 against the number in that split), and the broadest truths say points will be rationed and the favorite’s ceiling is capped without its creator (Purdy, obviously).
The projection layer backs that mood. You’ve got one reputable score call at 22–19 and another at 17–13. The market’s 40.5 lives between those poles, but the injury-adjusted reality is closer to the lower node. With Purdy out, Kittle out, and Jennings limited, San Francisco’s per-play efficiency almost has to step back from last year’s profile; McCaffrey can insulate efficiency, not completely replace it. New Orleans’ offense, meanwhile, is still introducing itself under a rookie quarterback and just went 20-13 in a clean-yardage, low-finishing game. The dome raises volume, not necessarily scoring.
Tactically, expect the 49ers to lean wide zone, duo, and angle screens to manufacture layups for Jones, chase second-and-five, and accept a field-position fistfight. Expect the Saints to lean quick game, tight-end seams, and Kamara option routes to neutralize a four-man rush and avoid obvious passing downs. Given the injuries and these split profiles, a realistic range is ~0.00 EPA/play or worse for both offenses, particularly early. Both staffs will happily trade clock for field goals if the other can’t threaten explosives. That is exactly how the under 40.5 turns sticky.
I call it 49ers 19, Saints 16, and I’m betting the u40.5. And, so far as props go, let’s overcorrect the 49ers’ special teams issues. Eddy Piñeiro over 1.5 field goals. San Francisco just swapped kickers after two Week 1 misses, but the volume was there; with Brock Purdy out, George Kittle on IR, and Jauan Jennings limited, the offense skews conservative and field-goal friendly. The 49ers had nine penalties and two picks in Seattle, a profile that stalls drives, and the Saints just produced five sacks while allowing only 130 passing yards—another nudge toward attempts over touchdowns inside a dome.
Best bet: Saints vs. 49ers u40.5 total points (-105)
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Best prop lean: Eddy Piñeiro o1.5 total field goals