Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 2’s game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.

This one has the feel of a September track meet in Cincinnati. Two 1-0 teams, two No. 1-overall quarterbacks, and two offenses pointing in the right direction for Week 2. Jacksonville just bulldozed Carolina on the ground and played clean, opportunistic defense. Cincinnati escaped Cleveland despite a brutal second half, and history says that’s exactly when Joe Burrow detonates the following week. Layer in the matchup: a Bengals passing game built to stress a Jacksonville secondary that gave up the most 20+ yard receptions last season and a Jaguars run game that looked fast and rugged on opening day. The board is offering 48.5, and all signs point to points. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 2’s game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

I’ll start with the advanced lens I trust, then zoom out. In Week 1, Jacksonville posted +0.103 EPA/play with a 46.0% success rate; split it out and you get +0.068 EPA/dropback (48.5% success) and a sparkling +0.141 EPA/rush (43.3% success). Cincinnati limped to –0.073 EPA/play (41.4% success), with –0.019 EPA/dropback (43.2%) and –0.142 EPA/rush (29.6%). That snapshot screams Jags edge, but the story is trajectory. The Bengals’ 2024 profile was pass-first and point-heavy (league-best 2.5 passing TDs per game, highest pass rate at 60.4%), and they were lethal once they crossed midfield (50.6% pass success on the opponent’s side). Jacksonville’s 2024 defense, by contrast, bled explosives and efficiency through the air (7.5 yards per dropback allowed, most 20+ yard receptions conceded, and a 126.0 opponent passer rating on third-and-long). If Burrow trends back toward his 2024 curve, Cincinnati’s dropback EPA should bounce—and this is the defense to do it against.

The Bengals’ ugly Week 1 context matters, too. They produced only 141 total yards, went three-and-out on 60% of their drives (worst in the league), and managed just seven second-half yards with a fourth quarter at –18 yards. Yet they still won because the defense was salty and the special teams finished. Burrow traditionally answers games under 200 yards with fireworks. With jetplane wideouts Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins running against a defense that ranked 31st in yards allowed in 2024 and still allowed separation to Carolina, expect Cincinnati to be far more aggressive with early down shot calls and more movement throws after Burrow said he’d be “a little more aggressive getting out of the pocket.” One clean explosive to Chase can flip both the Bengals’ EPA and this total.

Jacksonville brings plenty of firepower back. QB Trevor Lawrence wasn’t sharp wire-to-wire in Week 1 (178-1-1), but the Jaguars still rolled up 378 yards and 200 on the ground because the offensive line mauled and the backs ran through contact. Resurgent back Travis Etienne Jr. turned 16 carries into 143 yards, sporting a 71-yard dagger and a strong yards-after-contact figure, and the offense leaned into play-action and screens to keep the ball moving. Supernova wideout Brian Thomas Jr. threatens leverage every snap, and fantasy-superstar-in-waiting Brenton Strange was efficient per route, and Travis Hunter (WR/CB) saw heavy designed usage from the slot. Even with the plan for Hunter to play more defense, his slot work and manufactured touches are a perfect way to stay on schedule against a defense that just missed nine tackles in Week 1 and was the league’s best at limiting yards after contact per carry last season only when it kept hats square—tackling discipline that wavered out of the gate.

Jaguars vs. Bengals pick, best bet

Trenches and situational ball will dictate pace, but they also hint at points. Cincinnati just held Cleveland to 49 rushing yards on 24 attempts (2.0 YPC), and Trey Hendrickson wrecked downs by himself. Jacksonville just blasted Carolina for 200 rushing yards without allowing a sack and gave Cam Little four field goals because too many long drives stalled. That’s the fulcrum: the Jaguars’ penalty habit (11 for 93 yards in Week 1) can kill red-zone EPA, but Coen’s screen and misdirection game is a smart antidote to Hendrickson’s get-off. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s offense last year thrived in plus territory and in goal-to-go, so even a modest rebound in early-down efficiency should translate into touchdowns rather than chip shots.

The fantasy headliners line up betting quintessence. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Brian Thomas Jr., Chase Brown and, of course, Ja’Marr Chase are play-your-studs options with ceiling paths that correlate to an over. Tee Higgins’ first-read share stayed healthy even in a quiet opener, a buy signal. On Jacksonville’s side, Etienne’s vision and acceleration punish light boxes; if Cincinnati is forced to allocate bodies to Thomas and Hunter in space, the cutback lanes will reappear. And once either side pops an explosive, tempo usually follows—and totals ride tempo.

Yes, there are under indicators: the Bengals’ defense allowed just 16 points, Jacksonville settled for four field goals, and rain can nudge play-calling conservative. But the matchup edges tilt toward high-value throws for Cincinnati and chunk runs-and-YAC for Jacksonville. Add in that both teams rank top-two in early turnover margin out of the gate—short fields are over fuel.

With both offenses projected to move toward better versions of themselves—Cincinnati toward its 2024 passing baseline, Jacksonville upward from a run-driven Week 1—this profiles as a game where touchdowns, not field goals, decide it. I see it ending around Bengals 31 – Jaguars 27.

Prop lean: I see a small but real edge in Joe Burrow to throw 3+ passing touchdowns at +155. The matchup funnels him to the air, the Bengals lived in the end zone via the pass last year, and Jacksonville’s third-and-long coverage issues plus their explosive-pass history create multiple red-zone bite-at-the-apple sequences.

Best bet: Bengals vs. Jaguars o48.5 total points (-115)

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Best prop lean: Joe Burrow 3+ passing touchdowns (+155)

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