Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 2’s game between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants on Sunday.
AT&T Stadium gives us clean air and fast footing, but this matchup tilts toward attrition more than fireworks. The market sits Dallas -5.5/-6 with a total of 44.5, and nearly every recent indicator from your deck says the Cowboys control the tenor while the Giants wrestle for first downs. On opening night, quarterback Dak Prescott went 21-of-34 for 188 yards, and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb still cleared 110 yards on seven receptions. Dallas posted 307 total yards at 5.5 yards per play, converted 63.64% on third down, and finished 2-for-3 in the red zone (66.67%). New York’s opener was the inverse: 231 total yards, 3.73 yards per play, 25.0% on third down, and 0% red-zone touchdown rate. Those splits point to longer Dallas drives and a compressed scoreboard rather than a shootout. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 2’s game between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
AT&T Stadium tilts this rivalry toward the Dallas side of the ledger, but the swing factor is not brute force—it’s quarterback Dak Prescott throwing on schedule to a full complement of targets. Dallas’ Week 1 profile already pointed that way: a 60.71% pass rate, 5.5 yards per play, 22 first downs, and 7-of-11 on third down while producing 307 total yards against Philadelphia. The controlled indoor surface erases weather noise and rewards timing—precisely the environment where wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (WR) and tight end Jake Ferguson (TE) carve the middle and option space, and where wide receiver George Pickens (WR) can punish single coverage. The market leans Dallas, and predictive scorecards cluster near Cowboys 24, Giants 20, with expert calls dotted at 28–17, 27–17, 30–19, 30–14. That corridor is built on a passing script.
The opponent profile encourages it. New York just allowed 432 yards, 6.6 yards per play, and 63.3% completions in Washington, including 220 rushing yards at 6.9 per carry—a bend-heavy structure that gifts underneath windows and asks offenses to stack first downs. That is where Ferguson’s stick/choice inventory and Lamb’s in-breaking routes keep the chains moving. Once those linebackers widen, Pickens’ isolation becomes the leverage throw. Dallas does not need to force explosives to march; it needs precision and volume. The Cowboys delivered both last week with a clean dropback rhythm and 66.67% red-zone scoring.
Head-to-head form elevates the ceiling. Across the last three meetings, Dallas averaged 35.67 pass attempts, a 71.03% completion rate, and 293.33 passing yards—part of 416.67 total yards and 32.0 points per game. That isn’t a script that hides the quarterback; it’s one that hunts favorable matchups and keeps the foot down. The Cowboys also owned the ball and scoreboard in those games while protecting it, with New York averaging 1.33 turnovers per game against Dallas’ 0.67. When the question becomes whether Dallas can “run it up” after an opening-night loss, recent meetings say the structure exists to do exactly that.
New York’s offense makes the other half of the case. Quarterback Russell Wilson closed his Giants debut at 17-of-37 for 168 yards, with eight scrambles to reach 44 rushing yards. The Giants managed 231 total yards, a 3.73 yards-per-play clip, and were 4-for-16 on third down with only nine first downs. Their scoring split—0, 3, 3, 0 by quarter—mirrored a 0.00% red-zone touchdown rate. Wide receiver Malik Nabers (WR) flashed with five catches for 71 yards, but sustained drives never materialized behind a run game that finished at 74 rushing yards on 23 attempts. That profile often compresses totals unless defensive touchdowns or short fields arrive.
Giants vs. Cowboys pick, best bet
Dallas’ defense had its own split in Philadelphia—an 82.61% opponent completion rate on limited attempts but only 144 passing yards allowed, with 158 rushing yards surrendered. The schematic takeaway is straightforward: a willingness to cap explosives with softer zones in exchange for rally-and-tackle efficiency. Against this Giants offense, that trade is fine. Field-goal drives from kicker Graham Gano (K) keep games under control, and Dallas’ red-zone defense needs only to hold serve against a unit that just went 0-for-2 in close.
Situational angles add contour, not contradiction. The roof and turf minimize environmental drag. Dallas has won 15 of the last 16 in the series and eight straight, while Prescott is 7–1 at home against New York. The Giants’ broader form is grim—1–12 straight up and 2–11 against the spread in recent runs, with the Under in 13 of 19 and in nine straight September games as underdogs. The lone note pressing the other way is that the last six Cowboys home games against the Giants have gone Over, but that tendency rode older Dallas explosives and several New York defensive collapses. This New York offense’s Week 1 baseline argues for a narrower scoring band unless Dallas detonates into the mid-30s by itself.
The most rational projection threads the needle. Dallas leans pass, not pound, to control possession and targets the middle with Ferguson while Lamb vacuums first downs. One or two isolated shots to Pickens raise the ceiling but don’t require a shootout. Running back Javonte Williams (RB) remains a red-zone hammer, yet the backbone is high-percentage completions and third-down competence—metrics that already read 61.76% completions and 63.64% on third down in the opener. New York answers with drives that stall more than they finish, which preserves Dallas’ margin without forcing the game into the high 40s.
Final score: Cowboys 23, Giants 17. As far as props go, I’m hitting a SGP with Dak Prescott over completions—he has cleared 25+ in nine of his last ten Sunday games as a favorite—and George Pickens over receiving yards on a bounce-back angle backed by 75+ in each of his last four Sunday appearances. The passing volume fuels control; the opponent’s floor keeps the total in range.
Best bet: Cowboys vs. Giants u44.5 total points (-110)
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Best parlay lean: Dak Prescott 24+ completions + George Pickens 60+ receiving yards (+260)
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