The Jacksonville Jaguars dropped a heartbreaker in week two at Cincinnati. After providing the live takeaways and lingering questions from this weeks’ game, we take a closer review of the matchup after evaluating the televised gameplay. As a note, this review is based on the non-all-22 film, while being published before the PFF grades are released (in an effort to remain truly uninfluenced and unbiased on what we see). Additionally, this style of review knowingly places some limitations on evaluating secondary play without confirming the full coverage looks. With that said, let’s get into some takeaways from the Jaguars’ 31-27 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.
*Any opinions noted are those of Travis and not of the entire BCC staff. Of course, anyone can disagree when evaluating film. Any noted EPA, Success Rate, or other data was retrieved from rbsdm.com. Additional data provided by NFL Pro and NextGenStats.
EPA = expected points added (statistical metric used in football analytics to measure how well a team performs relative to expectation on an individual play, based on factors like field position, down and distance, and time remaining to quantify how many points a team is expected to score on a drive)SR = success rate (percent of plays with positive EPA)1st% = percent of plays that earned first downsCPOE = completion percentage over expectedADoT = average depth of targetADoT and CMP% may not match official statistics due to excluding spikes & throwaways
1.Quarterback Play Evaluation
0.08 EPA per play falls within the 52nd percentile of all QBs between 2010 and 2020 with minimum 5 plays per gameA total EPA of 3.8 in the 55th percentile58.5 Completion percentage (CMP%)7.5-yards average depth of target (ADOT) is in the 34th percentile-5% completion percentage over expected (CPOE) is in the 28th percentile49% Success Rate36% First Down Percentage80.6 Passer Rating
rbsdm
Trevor Lawrence had an extremely up-and-down day on Sunday. His first half performance did not fully fall on his shoulders, as his initial interception came due to immediate pressure from Trey Hendrickson, as he let the ball go. However, there were additional moments in the first half where Lawrence was obviously pressing to make a play, such as his underthrown deep ball attempt to Brian Thomas Jr, that was deflected into Travis Hunter, who dropped the ricochet. Additionally, Cincinnati dropped a deflected, contested Travis Hunter target that was initially ruled an interception, but overturned after review.
However, in the second half, Lawrence made up for many of those opportunities, hitting Dyami Brown and Thomas Jr in the touchdown for would-be touchdown opportunities where his supporting cast was unable to capitalize. Brown dropped a touchdown pass with 4:30 remaining in the game, Thomas Jr failed to attack the ball on his third-down endzone target with 11:52 remaining in the game, and Thomas dropped the final offensive snap that likely would’ve extended the drive.
Those three plays are “have to have it” scenarios that cost Jacksonville an upwards of 18 points alone.
RB LeQuint Allen: 0.33 EPA per play on 2 playsRB Bhayshul Tuten: 0.23 EPA per play on 8 plays (2.06 receiving EPA per play on 2 targets)RB Travis Etienne: -0.04 EPA per play on 14 plays (0.43 receiving EPA per play on 3 targets)
The interior blocking was great in the run game, with the backs showing incredible vision to make one cut and get upfield. Robert Hainsey running 25-yards down the field, blocking the defender on Travis Etienne’s 30-yard run, spotlighted his athleticism and allowed Etienne another 10-yards. LT Walker Little had his hands full with Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson on plays when the team didn’t give him help. He gave up nearly immediate pressure that resulted in Lawrence’s redzone interception while being hit. He also surrendered a QB hit on Dyami’s opening touchdown catch. Hendrickson ended the day with 5 pressures (tied for 11th in the NFL), via Next Gen Stats. I loved Anton Harrison’s game this week and truly had no issues on the tape.
With two Monday Night Football games remaining, the Jaguars lead the NFL in rushing yards (169.5) and are tied for the league lead in yards per carry (5.7) with the Baltimore Ravens. They have 6 explosive rushes on the year (tied at 10th) and a league-leading 6.8% stuffed run rate per NFL Pro.
WR Parker Washington: 1.19 EPA per play on 6 targetsWR Dyami Brown: 0.77 EPA per play on 7 targetsTE Brenton Strange: -0.15 EPA per play on 6 targetsWR Tim Patrick: -0.44 EPA per play on 1 targetWR Brian Thomas Jr: -0.59 EPA per play on 12 targetsWR Travis Hunter: -0.81 EPA per play on 6 targets
Dyami Brown produced a really efficient game, often blocking well down the field on rushing plays, catching 5/6 pass attempts, and scoring a touchdown. However, he also dropped a wide open touchdown that likely wraps this game up.
Travis Hunter had a more involved day, with his offensive snap share being similar to week one, offensively but his overall defensive usage increasing. Per NFL Pro, “Travis Hunter did not play a defensive snap until cornerback Jarrian Jones was injured late in the first quarter.” On his most notable plays, Hunter had an opportunity to come down with a deflected BTJ deep ball attempt that fell incomplete, was targeted on Trevor Lawrence’s underthrown redzone interception, and was otherwise primarily targeted in the quick-game area (screens, pop passes, etc).
Parker Washington had an incredible game, working out of the slot. His highlight play was his first half catch, climbing the ladder over the Bengals defender to bring in the deflected catch. However, his biggest play was his 40-yard catch and run where he shed a tackler to pick up the remaining 17-yards after the catch.
While Brenton Strange’s snap production increased to 90% this week, he was targeted just 5 times – all in the quick checkdown area. A quiet game for Brenton, outside of blocking.
The running backs all produced quality days catching the ball, with both Etienne and Tuten catching two targets and a touchdown each.
The biggest topic of conversation on Sunday was obviously the play of second-year receiver Brian Thomas Jr, who received the lions share of Lawrence’s pass attempts, leaving the game with a 28.6% target share. However, Thomas caught just four of those targets (33.3%) while seemingly shying away from contact mid-route or not attacking the ball in the air. On Trevor Lawrence’s second-quarter interception, Thomas Jr seemed to be looking to sit his route down within the zone right as the pass is being thrown. With the safety barreling down, this makes sense to find the hole in the zone. Unfortunately, the QB and WR again read the play differently, and with Thomas tipping the pass in the middle of the field, the play resulted in a turnover.
However, the less excusable plays were the late touchdown target where BTJ anticipates contact, only reaching up for the ball, instead of jumping for the contested target and the fourth down drop with the game on the line.
The Jacksonville front seven blitzed Jake Browning on 27.3% of his dropbacks (per NFL Pro), providing him an average 2.42 seconds to throw on his 32 pass attempts. However, he often made Jacksonville pay with an 18.8% deep ball percentage. His quick time to throw negated much of the Jaguars’ ability to get home, as he simply went to his playmakers quickly running isolation sideline routes, and allowed them to make plays on the ball on the backend. 37.5% of Tee Higgins’ 8 targets were deep as were 12.5% of Jamar Chase’s 16 targets. With Joe Burrow and Browning combined, the Cincinnati Bengals had the NFL’s quickest time to throw in week two (2.53 seconds), while Jacksonville still came away with three sacks (7th for the week) and 14 pressures (15th).
DE Travon Walker ended the day with a sack and 4 QB pressures (tied for 18th of qualified defenders in week 2). DE Josh-Hines-Allen, DT Arik Armstead, LB Devin Lloyd, and S Eric Murray all tied for 34th in the league at 3 QB pressures each. Armstead also had a sack along with LB Foye Oluokun.
The Jacksonville defensive front was dominant in the run game, facing the Bengals inconsistent offensive line. Jacksonville held Cincinnati to 2.8 yards per rush on 17 carries, with a long of 11-yards. Holding Bengals RB Chase Brown to a -1.2 rushing EPA and -1.1 rushing yards over expected per attempt (RYOE/att) and only one explosive rush spells a good day up front for Jacksonville. The Jaguars wrapped up Sunday surrendering the second-least rushing yards per game at 48-yards, allowing the fourth-least per carry (2.8). They landed 21st in the NFL in week two with an 11.8% run stuff rate, however, per Next Gen Stats.
NextGenStats
As we discussed in the post-game review, the Bengals were a known matchup knightmare when attempting to play man coverage, as most teams simply don’t have a number two or three cornerback equal to a number two like Tee Higgins.
The primary issue in coverage for much of the Jacksonville secondary was their occasional pressures with man coverage on the backend, which resulted in the secondary being unable to get their heads on the ball in contested catch scenarios. When they gave blitz looks and played zone, the team played reasonably well. Travis Hunter’s pass interference was a terrible call where he’s getting stiff armed in his neck and face by the Bengals receiver, yet still gets his head around late, and makes a play on the ball. I thought he had a really solid day in coverage, overall. He gave up a 13-yard and a 16-yard outs to Chase, but made a great play on Andre Losivas’ sideline attempt to secure a force-out.
The linebacker group played reasonably stout in coverage, with Foye securing a pass breakup and Devin Lloyd caught what was effectively a pick-six, however the referee blew the play dead.
Jamar Chase a day on Sunday, which was something that Coach Liam Coen stated heading into the week. However, the combination of Chase and Tee Higgins’ play against Tyson Campbell was slightly problematic today. The 4-yard Chase touchdown where Campbell is lined up in press alignment, yet gave Jamar the immediate inside release without getting a hand on the receiver is a play that I’m sure Campbell would like to have back. Tyson was also beat off the line for a 42-yard Tee Higgins touchdown where Campbell and Wingard both missed the tackle attempt.
Jarrian Jones dealt with a back injury late in the first quarter. While he gave up a few underneath catches pre-injury to Jamar Chase, it was a reasonably fine game by Jones before giving up the one-handed Tinsley 13-yard touchdown.
Jourdan Lewis was again dominant in the secondary, playing primarily out of the slot corner spot. Eric Murray again played one heck of a game at safety with multiple great fills in run support, an interception, and only a few underneath catches given up where he rallied to make the stop. Andrew Wingard also played reasonably well, sans the previously mentioned missed Tee Higgins tackle resulting in a touchdown.
When playing with eyes on the quarterback, they added three interceptions to their three turnovers from week one. Their six turnovers forced in two weeks lead the NFL.
Cam Little went 2/2 on fieldgoals with a long of 42-yards and finished 3/3 on extra points. Punter Logan Cooke averaged 47.5-yards on each punt, with a long of 60-yards, and one falling inside of the 20.
Parker Washington had two punt returns for a 9.5 vagerage and a long of 15-yards while the team averaged 25.3 yarda per kick return and a long of 30-yards.
Jacksonville lost a winnable game on Sunday, primarily due to miscues. While 6 penalties for 55 yards seems to be on the lower side, there was another 5 declined flags on the day and unfortunately multiple questionable calls against the secondary. Nevertheless, the biggest opponent for Jacksonville on Sunday was itself with multiple dropped illegal shift penalties, multiple dropped passes (including Dyami Drown’s dropped touchdown and Brian Thomas Jr’s dropped fourth down conversion), and the Travis Hunter pass interference that never was.
I know many will disagree on the play call to go for the win on fourth-and-5 from the seven-yard line. However, I believe Coen made the correct decision there. To go a step further, he even made the correct play call there. Sometimes you have to trust your guys (IE: your QB1 and your WR1) to be the guys to make a gotta have it play. The more questionable play call was the third-and-2 with 6:45 remaining in the game. Jacksonville picked up 4-yards on second-and-6 via Bhayshul Tuten and a physical, run-first team who averaged over 5-yards per carry on the day chose to throw a 30-yard Brian Thomas Jr incompletion into double coverage over running the ball in an opportunity to show physicality to close the game out.
Defensively, I know the team gave up 31-points, and primarily to a backup quarterback. However, I simply didn’t see much on the film to make me question the actual play calls. They trusted their defensive backs to make plays with the rush pressuring a backup and they were unable to. At that time, Campanile countered with less man coverage and the turnovers continued. They got off the field twice in the fourth quarter and received an unfortunate pass interference call to get Cincinnati in scoring range. You have to have a stop there, but I’m not really sure there’s anything there that falls on the staff, versus the roster. Nevertheless, Jacksonville gave up the seventh-most points in the NFL in week two, mostly to a backup QB and dominant outside weapons, while surrendering the sixth most passing yards per game.
That’s it from me for week 2! What were your takeaways from the game, Duval? Let us know in the comments!