We’re a quarter of the way through the college football regular season, and six of the teams in the preseason Associated Press Top 25 have already lost games to unranked opponents.

ACC favorite Clemson has lost twice, and Notre Dame hasn’t won yet. Kansas State, which was supposed to contend for the Big 12 championship, has lost three times, including to Army and Arizona.

You can criticize us media types all you want, but the transfer portal has made it more difficult than ever to predict this sport. We’re not alone. What must millionaire coaches Dabo Swinney, Marcus Freeman and Steve Sarkisian — the real experts — be thinking now?

Here’s where I stand on 10 questions after three weeks of mayhem.

1. Can Notre Dame salvage its season after a 0-2 start?

Absolutely. Notre Dame has two losses by a combined four points to two top-10 teams, with a brand new quarterback in CJ Carr, who has looked the part thus far.

Austin Mock’s model gives the Fighting Irish a 20 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff. The good vibes might be gone with new defensive coordinator Chris Ash, but there’s still enough talent to get things going in the right direction. And the remaining schedule is very favorable; Notre Dame will not play a team the rest of the way with a better offensive line than what it faced against Miami and Texas A&M. If Freeman and Ash figure things out and the Irish run the table, they will undoubtedly deserve a Playoff spot — especially if Texas A&M and Miami hold up.

2. Is Miami a legitimate national title contender?

At the moment, Miami is the only ranked team with two wins over ranked opponents (at the time of the game) — winless Notre Dame and South Florida, which fell out of the poll after losing to the Hurricanes 49-12. He may not be a first-round draft prospect just yet, but quarterback Carson Beck appears to be fitting in well as Cam Ward’s replacement. The Hurricanes are averaging 40.3 points per game and 7.2 yards per play and have turned it over only twice thus far.

But the reason the Canes have emerged as a legitimate national title contender is because Mario Cristobal appears to have fixed the biggest issue from a year ago — the defense.

The defense hasn’t been perfect — the Canes have allowed eight pass plays of 20 yards or more — but new defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman has cut down on the abhorrent miscues that short-circuited last season’s 10-3 team. Edge rusher Rueben Bain is playing at an elite level, and Miami’s run defense has improved. Not only did the Hurricanes keep Jeremiyah Love in check in the opener vs. Notre Dame, but also they shut down Byrum Brown’s running lanes in the South Florida win.

The trip to Florida State on Oct. 4 is the only remaining game against a team currently ranked.

3. Which unranked preseason team has the best shot at making the CFP?

Undefeated Utah, Georgia Tech, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Missouri and USC did not begin the season in the AP poll but are now ranked. Of that group, Utah owns the best odds (33 percent) to make the Playoff, according to Mock’s model, followed by USC (25 percent), Georgia Tech (22 percent), Indiana (18 percent), Missouri (17 percent) and Vanderbilt (2 percent).

But the real answer here is probably Tulane, which has two Power 4 wins, over Duke and Northwestern, and 37 percent odds to reach the CFP. Tulane could notch a third win this weekend at No. 13 Ole Miss.

Quarterback Jake Retzlaff, a transfer from BYU, ranks 93rd nationally in passing efficiency and yet the Green Wave actually looks better with him than it did last year with Darian Mensah. Retzlaff has topped 100 yards on the ground twice in three games and adds a rushing element that Tulane didn’t have at quarterback last year.

Your @American_Conf Offensive Player of the Week: @jretz11 #UptownFootball pic.twitter.com/Z1U7Oj1nrw

— Tulane Football (@GreenWaveFB) September 15, 2025

Yes, Tulane has to play at Memphis on Nov. 7, but it is still favored to win the American Athletic Conference, which should earn Jon Sumrall’s team the Group of 5’s spot in the CFP.

4. Is Arch Manning a bust?

Texas’ starting quarterback — the preseason favorite to win the Heisman — ranks 83rd in passing efficiency after three games. I was one of Manning’s biggest defenders not too long ago (like two weeks ago). But it’s one thing to look overwhelmed Week 1 on the road against the defending national champions and another to finish 11 of 25 for 114 yards with one touchdown and one interception at home against UTEP two weeks later.

I’ve got nothing but questions about Manning now — questions Sarkisian probably won’t answer without getting testy. Is Arch hurt? Does he just make funny faces when he throws the ball? How on earth were Manning, Nico Iamaleava and Malachi Nelson all ranked as five-star quarterbacks in the same recruiting cycle?

I’m not ready to completely throw in the towel on Manning or Texas, by the way. There are too many proven good players at Texas, particularly on defense, for the Longhorns to suddenly fade into irrelevance. But after Manning’s five career starts — against Louisiana-Monroe, a 2-10 Mississippi State team, No. 1 Ohio State, San Jose State and UTEP — we’re all beginning to believe he’s just not as good as his grandfather and uncles. Unlike his familial predecessors, who started as freshmen and/or sophomores, this is Year 3 for Arch. He should look better than he does right now.

5. Who is the best team in the Big Ten?

It’s difficult to answer this question because outside of Ohio State’s home win over preseason No. 1 Texas, nobody else in the Big Ten has won a game over a ranked opponent. In fact, the mighty Big Ten is 5-5 against other Power 4 conferences this season, with Michigan losing the only Top-25 matchup, at Oklahoma. For now, I’m sticking with Ohio State, my preseason choice to play Texas in the national championship game, as the best team in the league despite its sleepy performance against Ohio this past weekend.

Last season, the Big Ten went a combined 14-10 against the SEC, ACC and Big 12. Thankfully, we’ll find out more about the league over the next few weeks after Illinois travels to Indiana on Saturday and Penn State hosts Oregon on Sept. 27.

6. Who is the best team in the SEC?

It’s no longer Texas for me. It’s Georgia, but I’m not sure I can completely trust the defending league champions either. The Bulldogs were fortunate to escape Knoxville with a win on Saturday. What’s troubling is how Kirby Smart’s defense performed. That’s three times in the past calendar year, along with games against Alabama (loss) and Georgia Tech (win), that we’ve seen the Bulldogs give up a lot of points and yards. Where’s the edge that group used to play with consistently?

LSU, Texas A&M and Oklahoma all deserve their kudos for starting 3-0. The SEC is an impressive 9-2 against the other P4 programs heading into this weekend. But do any of the league’s top teams look as good as those recent Georgia and Alabama teams that won national titles? Not yet, anyway.

7. Were Cade Klubnik and Clemson overrated?

If you thought Manning’s QB rating was bad, have you seen Klubnik’s? (It’s 92nd!) He’s completed 59.1 percent of his passes for 633 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions.

I think Clemson’s roster is good enough to contend for a national title … if it were getting better quarterback play. Right now, Klubnik is this team’s biggest issue. He shouldn’t have been No. 1 on our QB tiers list even after leading the Tigers to last year’s ACC title.

The bulk of his production in 2024 (1,905 yards, 23 TD passes, three INTs) came in seven wins over FBS non-winning teams. He looked more ordinary (1,536 yards, 10 TDs, three INTs) in six games against winning teams. This season, it’s been more of the same in losses to Georgia Tech and LSU.

8. Is there any reason for hope for Billy Napier and Florida?

Whenever there’s an opportunity, there’s reason to hope. As tough to swallow as back-to-back losses to USF and LSU are — and as tough as the schedule ahead looks — what happens if DJ Lagway and the Gators offense get their act together Saturday night in Miami?

Florida killed itself with penalties against USF, and Lagway threw five interceptions in Baton Rouge. Cut down on the mistakes, and the Gators have a chance to redeem themselves with potentially three straight wins over top-10 opponents. Florida is not firing Napier if he does that. The defense is good enough to get the job done. Don’t count the Gators out yet.

9. Can UCLA and Virginia Tech get it right this time?

There’s a lot of doom and gloom in Westwood and Blacksburg, but it’s not impossible to win in college football if you hire the right coach and spend some money. Ask Arizona State, Indiana and SMU about that.

Both UCLA and Virginia Tech have a lot of work in front of them, but the Bruins at least are in one of the top two conferences in terms of revenue. Yes, UCLA’s athletic department has been operating in the red for some time. But don’t forget that the Bruins were ranked as high as No. 9 in the AP poll in the 2022 season under previous coach Chip Kelly.

The Hokies face a different challenge in the ACC. Virginia Tech hasn’t finished ranked in the Top 25 since 2017 — the last time it won more than eight games. Both of the head coaches hired since Frank Beamer retired have failed — Justin Fuentes and Brent Pry.

10. Can Joey Aguilar win the Heisman?

If you still believe Manning can turn things around and win the Heisman, put your money on him now. BetMGM has him at +3000. There are currently 17 players with better odds. Beck at Miami (+700) is the new favorite in a wide-open race, with Oklahoma’s John Mateer (+900), Oregon’s Dante Moore (+1000), Georgia’s Gunner Stockton (+1200) and Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar (+1200) rounding out the top five.

Aguilar’s odds to become the first player at Tennessee to win the Heisman jumped from +5000 last week to +1200 after he threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns in the overtime loss to Georgia.

(Photo of Mark Fletcher: Nathan Ray Seebeck / Imagn Images)