While there were some upsets on Saturday, the top several favorites to win the national title all won. Ohio State eventually woke up against Ohio, and Penn State wasn’t tested by Villanova, while Georgia survived a dramatic overtime game at Tennessee. Texas, Oregon and LSU also won to stay near the top of the odds board.
Through three weeks of the season, Ohio State is still the favorite to win the national title on BetMGM at +550. Georgia and Penn State are next at +600. The Bulldogs cleared the Tennessee hurdle, barely, which improved their chances of making the College Football Playoff. Whether or not you were impressed with how they played is another story.
The same goes for Texas, which is fourth in the odds at +700, and Arch Manning is still struggling. Manning had a stretch of 10 straight passes that did not find any Longhorns (nine incompletions and an interception) against UTEP. It’s hard to argue the 2-1 Longhorns are the fourth-most likely team to win the title right now, but it’s still mid-September, and all these teams will look different by the time the CFP rolls around.
Oregon has the same odds as Texas, but has not been tested in wins against Oklahoma State and Northwestern the last two weeks. The Ducks take on in-state rival Oregon State this week and are favored by five touchdowns.
LSU (+1000) survived Florida thanks to a five-interception game from Gators quarterback D.J. Lagway.
Is there still a path for Notre Dame and Clemson?
Those top six didn’t move much from last week. Things get more interesting with what happened to Notre Dame and Clemson. Both teams made the CFP last year and entered this season in the top 10 of the preseason polls. Both are staring at two early losses and, even in a 12-team playoff, won’t have an easy time getting in.
With a season-opening loss to LSU, an ugly comeback win against Troy and now a loss on a last-second field goal to Georgia Tech, Clemson is +500 to make the CFP field. The Tigers are unranked and 0-1 in ACC play, so they have a lot of work to do to make the ACC Championship Game for the ninth time in 11 years.
Still, +500 isn’t exactly dead in the water. Those odds give Clemson a roughly 1-in-6 chance of making the CFP, while Austin Mock’s projection model gives the Tigers a 12 percent chance.
Notre Dame, which is 0-2 after taking a bye in between losses to Miami and Texas A&M, is even more likely for the CFP at +230. Those odds give the Fighting Irish a solid fighting chance at about 30 percent. Mock gives them a 20 percent chance. In other words, don’t write off the Irish just yet, as much as the angry mob of ND haters would like to.
Forget how likely it is that either team gets in, how about just simply: How would it happen? Both teams would likely have to win out, although Clemson has a touch more room for error because they can win the ACC like last year and might be able to do so with two conference losses if things break right. Notre Dame doesn’t have that fallback option, so winning out to finish 10-2 feels necessary.
The reality is, while Notre Dame has played arguably the toughest combination of two games of anyone in the country so far, its schedule the rest of the way appears forgiving. USC just cracked the AP Top 25 this week to give them one more ranked opponent. That game is in South Bend, and the Irish are still ranked one spot higher despite not having won a game.
The Irish will need the Trojans or someone else to step up to give ND a chance at a quality win. Of the remaining 10 games on the schedule, seven of those teams already have a loss. USC, North Carolina State and Navy are the remaining unbeatens. Looking to Navy for a quality win is the definition of desperation, but USC and NC State could be good. At this point of the season, who knows, but Notre Dame does have a realistic path to 10-2, which would create quite an interesting resume come CFP selection time.
Clemson’s path won’t require any controversy. At this point, the Tigers will have to win the ACC. Winning out would ensure that, but nothing about the Tigers’ play so far has made it seem like that is plausible. Clemson does host No. 7 Florida State on Nov. 8 and has a game at Louisville, a team that stomped the Tigers last season, the following Friday. If Clemson is any good, they can win a bunch of games on the remaining schedule to stay in the ACC race. However, if Miami and Florida State continue to look like juggernauts, the opportunity may not come.
(Photo of Marcus Freeman: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)