Historically, most
teams that start 0-2 don’t make the NFL playoffs. So
which teams will still make it and which should already be looking
to next season?

Ten NFL teams have started 0-2 this year. If history holds, only
one of them will make the playoffs.

Since 1966, only 10% of the 451 teams to start a season 0-2 made
the postseason. That number has been mostly stagnant in recent
history, too, as only five of 41 teams (12.2%) since 2020 (when the
league went to a 14-team postseason) made the playoffs despite 0-2
starts. 

Weirdly enough, three of those five teams did it in 2024.

0-2 teams to make playoffs

Making the playoffs is all well and good, but these teams rarely
do much with the opportunity, either. The last team to make the
conference championship despite a horrific start was the 2022
Bengals, and only three teams that started 0-2 since 1966 won the
Super Bowl (the 1993 Dallas Cowboys, 2001 New England Patriots and
2007 New York Giants).

This year’s group of 10 features teams fighting the same uphill
battle that most 0-2 teams do. The majority of them weren’t
trending toward a playoff appearance before the season, but now all
of them have less than a 40% chance to make the postseason,
including the 2024 Super Bowl runner-up Kansas City Chiefs,
according to our playoff
prediction model.

0-2 teams playoff odds

The Texans and Chiefs have the best shots to make the playoffs
of this group, mainly because of their division chances. Houston’s
13.5% chance to win the AFC South and Kansas City’s 12.9% chance to
win the AFC West are the highest marks among the 0-2 teams.

There are a lot of reasons why a team falls to 0-2. Injuries, a
tough schedule to open the year or simply losing close games can
lead to results that don’t match a team’s real ability.

None of those excuses exist for this group. Half of these teams
rank in the bottom half of defensive success rate and the other
half rank in the bottom half of offensive success rate. Only the
Texans and Chiefs have a point differential of minus-10 or
better.

But, as history has proven, there is still a glimmer of hope for
these 0-2 teams to make the playoffs and, perhaps, make a run at
the Lombardi Trophy.

Here are the teams who still have time, the teams who are
running out of time and the teams who are already out of time in
the 2025 season.

0-2 Teams That Still Have Time
Kansas City
Chiefs

When your quarterback is Patrick Mahomes, there’s always hope
for a turnaround. 

However, Mahomes isn’t off to a great start. He ranks 31st in
completion rate out of 34 quarterbacks with at least 25 passing
attempts this season. His open target rate,
well-thrown rate and catchable ball rate are all bottom 10,
too, and well below his career averages. 

Patrick Mahomes decline

It makes sense that this is the first time he’s ever started a
season 0-2.

Part of this can be blamed on the team’s skill position players.
Receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster, Hollywood Brown and Tyquan Thornton
average less than 2.5
burn yards per target, and Travis Kelce has the fourth-worst
catch rating among tight ends with at least 20 route runs.

The running game is also an issue for Kansas City. The team
ranks 24th in run success rate and is tied with the Carolina
Panthers for 26th-fewest rushing yards per play (3.2).

If the Chiefs bounce back, their defense will be the saving
grace. The Chiefs have only lost by nine total points through two
games and rank 15th in defensive success rate. The defense hasn’t
been elite yet, but it’s been good enough to give the Chiefs a
glimmer of hope in an otherwise abysmal start to the 2025
season.

Andy Reid’s offense still has the 10th-best passing success rate
through two weeks, too. The receivers just can’t get open with the
eighth-worst
open rate so far. We’ll see if things change when Xavier Worthy
and Rashee Rice return to the lineup over the next few
weeks. 

0-2 Teams Running Out of Time
Chicago Bears

Nothing is working in Chicago. The Bears are the only team on
this list in the bottom 10 in both offensive and defensive success
rate this season. 

Quarterback Caleb Williams hasn’t taken the Year-2 leap under
new coach Ben Johnson, and the run game is a disaster so far.
Williams has the eighth-worst completion rate among those 34
quarterbacks and the second-worst well-thrown rate, while Chicago’s
27.3% run success rate ranks second-worst despite a healthy 3.7
yards before contact (which ranks fourth). 

The Bears’ lone bright spot is the red zone, where they’re a
perfect 4 for 4 and own a league-leading 66.7% success rate. The
problem is they just can’t get there. Chicago has the fifth-fewest
plays per drive and sixth-fewest yards per drive.

Both sides of the ball remain a work in progress for the
foreseeable future.

Houston Texans

The Texans have been close in both games, but third downs are
killing them. They own the league’s worst offensive success rate
and conversion rate at 22.2% each.

They can’t get off the field on defense either, with the
26th-worst defensive success rate on third downs.

Third Down Efficiency

Some of it is protection issues. Stroud is under pressure nearly
half the time, and the run game ranks bottom five in success rate.
The defense does its job up front, but collapses behind it, as the
secondary allows a 52.2% passing success rate on third down.

Until they fix those critical moments, the Texans will keep
stalling out.

Miami Dolphins

Miami’s problem is simple: defense. The Dolphins have given up
the second-most points in the league and rank dead last in
defensive success rate. The secondary is especially leaky with a
near-60% burn rate allowed and a 54.8 passing success rate allowed,
which are both the highest in the NFL.

Their offense is the only lifeline. Tua Tagovailoa remains
efficient but reckless, pairing a top-five completion rate with a
bottom-three
pickable pass rate among 34 quarterbacks with at least 20
passing attempts. 

Running back De’Von Achane has flashed explosiveness both as a
runner and receiver. He averages the eighth-most yards before
contact (3.44) among running backs with at least 10 rushing
attempts and his 9.0 burn yards per target rank sixth among running
backs with at least 20 route runs.

Dual Threat RBs

0-2 Teams That Should Look to Next Year

We won’t go into too much detail here, given the state of the
remaining 0-2 teams. 

The New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers,
New Orleans Saints and New York Giants
have all shown signs of life throughout the past two weeks, but
ultimately failed to win games because of the flaws that will take
more than a season to correct.

But none look like playoff contenders.

The Browns and Saints have proven to be solid defensive teams,
but they just can’t get things together on offense. Cleveland and
New Orleans rank second and third in defensive success rate, but
17th and 24th on offense, respectively.

The two New York teams have the opposite problem. The Jets put
on an offensive show in Week 1, but their defense couldn’t deliver
the win. The Giants failed to prevent a wild comeback despite a
career day from Russell Wilson in Week 2 after looking lethargic in
Week 1. That leaves them in the bottom tier of both offensive and
defensive success rate.

The Panthers and Titans are just bad. Both rank near the bottom
in points scored with low offensive success rates. Their
quarterbacks (Bryce Young and No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward) are also
near the bottom in most advanced metrics. There is some hope on
defense, where both rank in the middle of the league, but neither
has come really close to winning games.

History says one of these 10 teams will still make the
postseason despite 0-2 starts. The question is whether it’ll be a
new type of Mahomes miracle, the Texans finally learning to finish,
or a different team pulling off a stunning revival.

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