Expectations have been high for the Cincinnati Bengals ever since they selected Joe Burrow with the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, as the much-lauded quarterback won the Heisman Trophy and guided LSU to the national championship the previous season. Cincinnati even helped Burrow by drafting college teammate Ja’Marr Chase fifth overall the following year.

Things haven’t quite gone as hoped in The Queen City, however, as the Bengals have yet to win a Super Bowl and missed the playoffs in three of Burrow’s five NFL seasons. One reason for the lack of success has been the health of their star signal-caller, who missed large portions of the 2020 and 2023 campaigns due to injuries. 

Burrow’s latest malady — torn ligaments in one of his toes, issue sustained in Sunday’s 31-27 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars — could reportedly sideline him for anywhere from three months to the rest of the season. Burrow will be undergoing surgery on the toe. On Wednesday, head coach Zac Taylor told reporters Burrow has not been ruled out for the rest of 2025 but refused to give a definitive timeline. “At least the next four weeks,” Taylor said during his press conference. “Best I can give you.”

Jake Browning entered in relief of Burrow in the second quarter and, despite an up-and-down performance, helped Cincinnati earn the win. Browning was intercepted three times in the contest but threw two touchdown passes in the third quarter and scored himself on a 1-yard run with 18 seconds remaining in the fourth to put the Bengals ahead for good.

Browning will be the Bengals’ starting quarterback for the foreseeable future, beginning with their road contest against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. The 29-year-old is no stranger to the role, as he replaced the injured Burrow in 2023 and completed 71.5% of his pass attempts for 1,868 yards with 11 TDs and seven interceptions while leading the team to a 4-3 record in his seven starts.

As a result, Browning has earned the confidence of Taylor, who on Monday told reporters, “I think Jake has proven his caliber in this league and he can help us win football games, and contend for all the things we want to contend for.”

Browning’s stint as Cincinnati’s starter also has SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team believing the Bengals shouldn’t be written off this season. The ITL team’s projection model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, doesn’t see much of a decline in Cincinnati’s win total with Burrow out and has its chances of earning a playoff berth at more than 50% even if the two-time Pro Bowler misses three months. 

SCENARIO

WINS

WIN DIVISION

MAKE PLAYOFFS

WIN CONFERENCE

WIN SUPER BOWL

Burrow healthy

9.5

21.7%

67.5%

4.5%

2.0%

Burrow out six games

9.0

16.8%

54.0%

2.9%

1.1%

Burrow out three months

8.8

13.5%

50.6%

2.5%

0.9%

With a 2-0 record, the Bengals enter Week 3 one game ahead of both the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North. They have a solid chance of maintaining that lead as they face a Minnesota team that is dealing with quarterback issues of its own, with Carson Wentz slated to make just his third NFL start since 2022 in place of the injured J.J. McCarthy (ankle).

The ITL team’s model has Cincinnati’s current chances of making the playoffs at just under 50%, but they will rise to more than 60% with a victory against the Vikings. A loss would drop them to less than 43%. The model sees the Bengals’ chances of winning the division increasing by over 4% with a win and decreasing by more than 3% with a defeat.

CURRENT PLAYOFF %

% WITH WEEK 3 WIN

% WITH WEEK 3 LOSS

49.6%

60.2%

42.6%

CURRENT DIVISION TITLE %

% WITH WEEK 3 WIN

% WITH WEEK 3 LOSS

12.8%

17.1%

9.7%

Browning’s task will be difficult as Cincinnati has a very rough stretch after Week 3. Sunday’s meeting with Minnesota is followed by contests against the Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers — all of whom made the playoffs last year.

The Bengals then have winnable matchups with the New York Jets and Cleveland before their bye. Their final eight games of the season include ones against the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals and Browns, which gives them a solid chance of finishing with at least nine wins as long as Browning performs at a respectable level.

Cincinnati still is holding out hope that Burrow can return before the end of the season, but it certainly isn’t waving the white flag with Browning at the helm. And the ITL team isn’t ready to do so either.