Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 3’s clash between the Bills and Dolphins on Thursday Night Football.

It’s hard to believe the NFL season has already reached Week 3, but sure enough, the festivities kick off on Thursday Night Football with an AFC East clash. The Buffalo Bills (2-0) look like Super Bowl contenders once more as they welcome a struggling Miami Dolphins (0-2) squad to Highmark Stadium for this rivalry tilt.

Get ready for the primetime action with a Bills vs. Dolphins prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bills vs. Dolphins prediction, preview

Buffalo Bills

Up in Buffalo, New York, the Bills are again working to finally get over the hump in the postseason and reach a Super Bowl for the first time since 1994. Through the first two weeks of 2025, this team does look just as capable of contending as they have over the last several seasons with a formidable offense averaging 35.5 points on an NFL-best 450 total yards per game. Josh Allen appears unstoppable even after suffering what might’ve been a broken nose in Week 2, so he’ll don a visor on Thursday night to try and protect his face from any further issues.

Thus far, the reigning MVP has spread the ball around with a receiver-by-committee approach as four players have seen between 10 and 14 targets. The run game is where the real production has come as James Cook seems to have earned every penny of the four-year, $46 million contract he signed a few weeks back — his 176 rushing yards rank second in the NFL while his three touchdowns are tied for the league lead. Allen has also tallied 89 yards and two scores on the ground himself, and the Bills rank third in EPA/rush at 0.21 with the second-most rushing yards of any team. Against a Dolphins defense which sits seventh-worst in defensive EPA/rush at 0.11, Buffalo enters a tasty matchup in front of their own crowd.

The Bills’ defense doesn’t necessarily bring the same top-tier status as the offense does, especially after allowing 40 points in Week 1 to the Ravens, but the unit did limit the Jets to just 10 points last Sunday (take that mark with a grain of salt after Justin Fields exited with a concussion, though). Thus far, Buffalo allows 293 yards per game while limiting opponents to just 124 yards through the air on average, by far the NFL’s best number. The pass rush looks good with six total sacks in two games after adding Joey Bosa this offseason as well. However, the Bills seemed very vulnerable to the run against Derrick Henry and the Ravens, and they’ve allowed the second-most rushing yards to this point. With defensive tackle Ed Oliver and linebacker Matt Milano both out on Thursday, the front seven takes a serious hit against Dolphins halfback De’Von Achane.

Miami Dolphins

As for the Dolphins, well, the vibes are pretty horrendous in South Beach. That felt like the case over the offseason as an air of desperation hung over training camp with the knowledge that Tyreek Hill may want out and head coach Mike McDaniel could find himself on the hot seat. Thus far, two losses to the Colts and Patriots don’t exactly help the case for this team’s outlook, especially with an offense that teams seemingly have an answer for and a very porous defense.

Miami scored only eight points in Week 1 against Indianapolis with 211 total yards, and while the attack looked better in Week 2 against New England with 27 points and 358 yards, the production still didn’t result in a win. Tua Tagovailoa is completing 72.7% of his passes through the first two weeks but has a 3/3 TD/INT ratio while taking eight sacks behind one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines. Despite his usually quick release, that protection will prove problematic throughout the year and limit the deep-ball potential for Hill and Jaylen Waddle, though at least the pair looked like themselves with 6-109 and 5-68-1 receiving lines last time out. Achane also sees a workhorse role with 18 carries and a team-high 14 targets, racking up 197 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns with those opportunities. He’s the key to this attack in both facets of the game.

While the offense might hold their own in this contest, the Dolphins’ defense faces quite the uphill battle. The secondary added Minkah Fitzpatrick over the offseason, but lost Jalen Ramsey and Jevon Holland. Now, this unit deploys possibly the worst cornerback rooms in the NFL against the reigning MVP in Allen, while they also face possibly the league’s best rushing attack. After allowing 375.5 total yards with a 0.29 defensive EPA/play, the worst mark in football, Miami might want to head to the locker room early in this one. It could get ugly very, very quickly.

Bills vs. Dolphins pick, best bet

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Bills are heavy 12.5-point favorites with -800 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Dolphins come in at +550 odds to win outright with the game total set at 49.5 points.

Stranger things have happened in the NFL, but there’s really no other realistic outcome for this game other than a Buffalo win. The Bills’ offense has the makings of a top-five unit once again (shocking, right?) with the best player in the game by far lining up under center. Game-planning to stop Allen is one of the toughest tasks any defensive coordinator can face, but without much top-end talent, Miami truly might get blown out by three or more touchdowns. The only hope the Dolphins have for this Thursday Night Football showdown is that their own offense can keep pace with Allen and Co., and while that’s a possible outcome with Oliver and Milano missing, it’s simply not a very likely one.

Since 2020, the Dolphins are just 1-9 against the Bills and lost by 14 or more points in five of those 10 games. Several of those also came with a much more functional Miami squad that was far easier to feel confident in, and with this matchup taking place in front of the Buffalo faithful, the hostile environment may also play a factor in primetime. Combine how poorly the Dolphins have played thus far in 2025 with how dominant the Bills look to this point, and suddenly the 12.5-point spread almost feels too low for the home team. Get the tables ready outside the stadium — Buffalo should comfortably cover and assert their will in all phases of this contest, particularly via the ground game.

Best bet: BUF Bills -12.5 (-112)