Saquon Barkley knew what was going to happen this year. After rattling off arguably the greatest season by a running back in NFL history, after powering the Eagles on a memorable Super Bowl run, Barkley knew defenses would sell out to stop him in 2025.

“That’s going to be the theme for this year,” Barkley said last week. “You’d be a fool if you’re going to let us walk into whatever stadium, whether it’s the Linc or your stadium, and your focal point is not stopping the run. If that’s the case, we’re going to burn you for it.”

“If you don’t stack the box,” Barkley added, “I’m going to make you pay for it.”

So far, the Cowboys and Chiefs have heeded that warning. In Weeks 1 and 2, Barkley faced a heavy box (seven or more defenders) on 85% of his rushes, per TruMedia, via The Athletic. Kansas City and Dallas held Barkley to 148 total rushing yards on 40 attempts (3.7 yards per carry).

But as the Rams found out the hard way, loading the box isn’t a sure-fire way of keeping Barkley in check. So it will be fascinating to see Los Angeles’ defensive game plan on Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field, eight months after Barkley ran the Rams out of the playoffs.

“He’s so damn dynamic,” Rams coach Sean McVay told reporters this week. “He’s so explosive. If he gets a vertical seam and he gets clean to the second and third levels, he’s as special as a slash runner as there is. … You see why he had more production, when you look at his season combined, than there ever was in the history of the league. He was excellent.”

Barkley certainly was excellent last season during the Eagles’ Super Bowl march. McVay knows that from first-hand experience. Barkley, who set the NFL record for the most scrimmage yards in a season (including playoffs), popped off both times he played Los Angeles.

In Week 12, Barkley rushed for a franchise-record 255 yards, breaking away for 70 and 72-yard touchdown runs. In the NFC divisional round, he racked up 205 rushing yards, including 62 and 78-yard touchdown runs. The 78-yard run in the snow was especially iconic.

Those images of Barkley dashing through the snow, slapping his helmet wildly before even reaching the end zone, will live in Philadelphia sports lore for a long time. Those images also have to be burned in the minds of McVay and Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula.

Shula tried to load the box against Barkley in their two meetings last season. Barkley faced a heavy box on 88.5% of his rushes when he went for 255 yards in Week 12, per TruMedia. The Rams used a similar strategy in the playoffs, and it burned them again.

“You try to load the box to stop the run,” Shula said. “… The next thing you know, he gets a seam and there’s nobody on the back-end to bring him down.”

“It’s a numbers game,” Barkley said in January.

Now, Los Angeles’ defense is different than it was last year. The Rams added run-stopping defensive tackle Poona Ford this offseason. They also signed linebacker Nate Landman, who was named the Week 1 NFC Defensive Player of the Week after a 10-tackle performance vs. the Texans.

Still, that numbers game Barkley and Shula harped on exists, regardless of who’s in there.

So, how will the Rams approach that numbers game? How will they decide to defend Barkley this time around?

Will Barkley run rampant against Los Angeles again? Or will he be held under 100 yards rushing like he has through the first two weeks of the season?

We’ll find out for sure on Sunday. But the one thing we know for certain? Barkley needs only one crease, one mistake from the defense to take it the distance.

“We just gotta play good gap-sound defense, (get) good knockback at the line of scrimmage, gang tackle, pursuit, all the same stuff that you play in traditional run defense,” Shula said. “You just gotta do it every single snap. Because at any point, he can break the game open.”

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