Broncos (1-1) at Chargers (2-0)

When: 2:05 p.m. Sunday

Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.

TV/radio: CBS, 850 AM/94.1 FM

Broncos-Chargers series: Denver’s up 72-57-1 all-time on their AFC West rivals in the regular season. The Broncos, though, are coming off two 2024 losses to the Bolts, as quarterback Justin Herbert and coach Jim Harbaugh’s run game downed Denver in both divisional matchups.

In the spotlight: Can Justin Herbert handle the Broncos’ blitz? And vice versa?

Zach Allen, for one, isn’t worried. And why should he be? His pass-rush has a demonstrated record of success, dating back to the start of 2024. And the Broncos just ate Cam Ward and the Titans up two weeks ago.

“We got a special group up front,” Allen said Monday. “We’ve showed it last year, we’ve showed it Week 1. There were games last year where we didn’t have six sacks. So we’ll be fine.”

But they were not fine in Week 2. Denver blitzed the Colts on 71% of Indy’s dropbacks last Sunday, according to Next Gen Stats — the highest single-game rate for any team since the start of last year. They pressured Indianapolis quarterback Daniel Jones 17 times and started collapsing pockets in the second half.

They also got home only once. And Jones finished 16-of-25 passing for 265 yards against the blitz in Week 2, calmly sitting in the pocket and firing off quick strikes to a spread-out room of pass-catchers.

That downed Denver last week in a 29-28 loss — leverage penalty or not. And the Broncos will face a more talented quarterback in Week 3 in the Chargers’ Justin Herbert, the golden-mopped gunslinger who’s elevated his play to another echelon early in 2025 after five standout NFL seasons.

“Two weeks in — and again, this is last year as well — but you can see the confidence that they’re playing with, in the receivers and the quarterback all being on the same page,” Broncos head coach Sean Payton said Wednesday. “The timing has been real impressive.”

Specifically, Herbert and Los Angeles have handled the blitz as well as any passing game in the NFL. The former Oregon Duck sifted through opposing rushes with excellent precision in 2024, finishing with a QB rating of 101.4 against the blitz. Still, offensive coordinator Greg Roman dedicated heaps of time and study in the offseason to picking up opposing blitzes. Herbert told Chargers reporters Thursday that he’d gone back and studied every clip of protections the Chargers picked up in 2024 — ones executed successfully, and ones he could’ve changed — to figure out how to beat the blitz.

“There’s multiple ways of beating the blitz, and it’s blocking it or getting the ball out quickly,” Herbert said. “And I think, whether you got two of those options — as long as you’ve got one of ‘em called, you’re gonna do well.”

Los Angeles, 2-0 after a win over the Raiders on Monday night, has both. Right tackle Trey Pipkins III didn’t surrender a single pressure against the Raiders, despite star edge rusher Maxx Crosby breathing down his neck. And Herbert — much like Jones and Indy — has a stable of receivers available for quick-hits underneath, from second-year slot star Ladd McConkey (11 catches for 122 yards) to steady veteran Keenan Allen (12 for 129).

It’s all added up to ridiculous efficiency for Herbert when under duress in 2025: 18-of-24 passing for 264 yards and two TDs. The Chargers, too, are running more play-action in coach Jim Harbaugh’s second year than they ever have in Herbert’s career, opening up big-play threat Quentin Johnston to take the top off secondaries.

“They’ll give you gap schemes, they’ll give you zone schemes,” Payton said. “The play-action that comes off of those runs is difficult.”

Through two games, the Broncos rank third in the NFL in pressure rate. Outside linebacker Nik Bonitto is first in the NFL in QB pressures when blitzing, according to Next Gen Stats; inside linebacker Justin Strnad is sixth, and Allen ranks 12th.

Sheer pressures could not save them against Indianapolis, though. And they certainly won’t save Denver against Herbert, a quarterback operating at as high of a level as anyone in the NFL.

“They have a lot of momentum coming into this week,” cornerback Pat Surtain II said Wednesday. “We understand our opponent, and we know what we have to do at the end of the day.”

Who has the edge?

When Broncos run: Denver RB1 J.K. Dobbins is back in Los Angeles to tote the rock against the team that yanked him around this offseason, and will get a fairly favorable matchup. The Chargers, despite largely holding Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty in check last week, are surrendering the ninth-highest yards per carry in the NFL through two games. RJ Harvey could get a few more looks in this one as a change-of-pace option to break off the edge, too, as Los Angeles stud OLB Khalil Mack will miss Sunday’s game with a dislocated elbow. Still, Los Angeles has plenty of defensive playmakers, starting with ascending young linebacker Daiyan Henley. Edge: Even

When Chargers run: Theoretically, a Jim Harbaugh-led team means an offensive line that punches other teams in the mouth. Through two weeks, though, Los Angeles’s revamped ground game has been … fine. The Chargers sit in the middle of the league in run-block win rate thus far in 2025, and No. 22 overall pick Omarion Hampton has rushed for just 72 yards on 23 carries. Los Angeles is near the NFL’s basement in yards per carry, too. They could bust out Sunday against a Broncos defense that just surrendered 165 yards to the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor. Counterpoint: That was Jonathan Taylor. Edge: Broncos

When Broncos pass: Bo Nix has four takeaways through two games and heads into the danger zone in Los Angeles. The Chargers have surrendered the second-lowest yards per attempt (5.3) to opposing quarterbacks in the NFL, and just had Raiders QB Geno Smith (24 of 43, 180 yards, three interceptions) in purgatory on Monday. Los Angeles plays a ton of four-DB looks and has secondary playmakers in safety Derwin James Jr. and young corner Tarheeb Still. Edge: Chargers

When Chargers pass: Herbert has hit a new level in 2025 with a 127.8 passer rating. The Chargers also boast a triumvirate of receivers that rivals most any Denver will face this year: second-year star Ladd McConkey, deep-ball threat Quentin Johnston and vet extraordinaire Keenan Allen. The Broncos will probably go nickel-heavy in this one, which’ll put Ja’Quan McMillian and rookie Jahdae Barron in some big spots. Edge: Even

Special teams: Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker is 4 of 4 on field goals this year and has been one of the most consistent legs in the league since his rookie year in 2022. Los Angeles punter JK Scott is also an early third in the NFL in yards per punt. The Broncos, meanwhile, have a laundry list of issues to clean up on special teams from these first two weeks: a muffed punt by Marvin Mims Jr. in Week 1, a crucial missed field goal by Wil Lutz in Week 2, and the dreaded leverage call. Edge: Chargers

Coaching: Jim Harbaugh transformed the Chargers last year upon his arrival in Los Angeles, and has another well-oiled machine in Year 2. Sean Payton has a longer demonstrated history of NFL head-coaching success, but the Chargers have been cleaner offensively and defensively than Denver through two games and have made fewer glaring mental mistakes. Slight edge: Chargers

Tale of the tape

Broncos
Chargers

Total offense
320.5 (17th)
355.5 (9th)

Rush offense
134.5 (10th)
85.5 (25th)

Pass offense
186.0 (25th)
270.0 (4th)

Points per game
24.0 (10th)
23.5 (12th)

Total defense
303.0 (12th)
282.5 (7th)

Run defense
119.0 (20th)
83.0 (8th)

Pass defense
184.0 (9th)
199.5 (16th)

Points allowed
20.5 (14th)
15.0 (3rd)

By the numbers

4.6: Average yards per carry the Chargers have surrendered on run plays in 2025. Coincidentally, also the yards per carry J.K. Dobbins has picked up on carries in 2025.

42: Snaps Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Winter has used dime packages (four DBs), the third-highest total in the NFL.

14.7%: Los Angeles’s blitz rate on passing plays, fifth-lowest rate in the NFL.

42.4%: Broncos tight end Evan Engram’s total percentage of snaps played against the Colts in Week 2.

100%: The Chargers’ completion rate in 2024 when targeting the Broncos’ starting linebackers on pass plays (17 for 17), according to PFF. Also, the Colts’ completion rate from Week 2 when targeting the Broncos’ starting linebackers on pass plays (6-of-6).

6.2: Broncos quarterback Bo Nix’s average depth of target through two weeks, tied for 31st in the NFL out of 34 quarterbacks with at least 30 drop-backs.

X-factors

Broncos: C Luke Wattenberg. Not a super-sexy pick here. But J.K. Dobbins has run for 46 yards on five carries when hitting gaps adjacent to Wattenberg, according to PFF. Denver needs to establish the run game against a Chargers defense that is often light loading the box, and Wattenberg, who spent the offseason trying to improve as a run-blocker, will be key Sunday.

Chargers: TE Tyler Conklin. Conklin hasn’t done much for Los Angeles since coming over in the offseason as a free agent, after the Chargers missed out on Evan Engram. Still, he was a perennial 50-catch-a-year guy for the Jets for a while, and the Broncos struggled to adequately cover Colts rookie Tyler Warren last week with linebackers. Denver can’t afford to throw Pat Surtain II on Conklin with the Chargers’ receiving corps.

Post predictions

Parker Gabriel, Broncos beat writer: Chargers 23, Broncos 17

Jim Harbaugh’s got his team off to a terrific start. He oversaw a sweep of Sean Payton’s team a year ago. And he’s got a defense coordinated by Jesse Minter that is flying. They make you dink and dunk, which the Broncos did powerfully for almost a half in December, then forgot to carry on with. A 1-2 start isn’t ideal, but it’s not the end of the world for Denver, either. On the flip side, 2-1 with a road win over the Chargers would look awfully good.

Luca Evans, Broncos beat writer: Chargers 27, Broncos 17

Not going to be very popular here, but the Broncos have a lot of kinks to iron out on the road in sunny Los Angeles. The Bolts have the weaponry around Justin Herbert to attack the gaps in Denver’s secondary, and the defensive playmakers to contain Bo Nix. They just made Geno Smith look like his 2013 Jets rookie-disaster self again. This is an early inflection point for Sean Payton’s squad.

Troy Renck, columnist: Chargers 23, Broncos 19

Styles make fights. And the tale of the tape is not kind to the Broncos. The Chargers make them uncomfortable and impose their will like few teams do. With Jim Harbaugh in his first season, the Chargers swept the Broncos because they dominated time of possession, were more disciplined, took care of the ball, and wore them down on the ground. And now Justin Herbert and his receivers are better. This is a statement game that Denver needed at home.

Sean Keeler, columnist: Chargers 23, Broncos 20

Justin Herbert right now is everything we want Bo Nix to be. And more. Safety Derwin James Jr. is doing his best Steve Atwater. L.A. coach Jim Harbaugh has some kind of Peter DeBoer-like hold over Sean Payton-coached teams (5-1 lifetime). If the Broncos lose this one, Herbert and Harbaugh might have the AFC West locked up before the end of September. Surely, the Chargers have to find a way to Charger this one. Don’t they? (Nah.)

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