Why 0-3 Dolphins might have just unofficially eliminated themselves from NFL playoff race after loss to Bills

The first month of the NFL season isn’t even over yet and the Miami Dolphins might have already eliminated themselves from the playoff race. At least from an unofficial standpoint. The Dolphins are 0-3 following their loss to the Buffalo Bills on Thursday and they’re now going to have to defy NFL history if they want to somehow bounce back to make the playoffs. 

Starting 0-3 is the kiss of death in the NFL: Since the schedule was expanded to 17 games in 2021, NO team has lost their first three games and rebounded to make the postseason. There have been 13 teams that have started 0-3 over the past four years and out of that group, only two teams have even finished with a winning record: The 2021 Colts and 2024 Bengals both finished 9-8, but didn’t make the playoffs. 

Heading into Week 3, there was some speculation that the Dolphins locker room had given up on Mike McDaniel, but that’s clearly not the case. In the 31-21 loss to Buffalo, the Dolphins had a chance to tie the game up late in the fourth quarter, but their comeback fell short when Tua Tagovailoa threw an interception. 

The fact that they played a close game with the Bills has given the team some confidence, but there’s definitely a sense of urgency, according to Dolphins star receiver Tyreek Hill. 

“Being 0-3, we’ve got to win right now,” Hill said after the game. “We’ve got to find it sooner than later. I feel like this is a good start. I feel like we did something a lot of people didn’t expect us to do, which is play a close game in Buffalo, against Buffalo, so we’re moving in the right direction right now. So it’s all positive right now.”

The Dolphins might be “moving in the right direction.” but it might be too late for that. 

The problem with starting 0-3 is that you leave yourself with no margin for error. If the Dolphins want to have any shot at the postseason, they’d likely have to go 10-4 over their final 14 games, which is a tall task for a team that still has to play the Chargers (Week 6), Ravens (Week 9), Commanders (Week 10) along with another game against the Bills that will come in Week 11 (All four of those games will come before their Week 12 bye). 

Although getting to the playoffs after an 0-3 start is unlikely, it has been done. Since the NFL expanded to 12 playoff teams in 1990, there have been 165 teams that have started 0-3 and exactly four of them went on to make the playoffs, which means 2.4% of teams have pulled off the miracle feat. The group of four is the 1992 Chargers, 1995 Lions, 1998 Bills, 2018 Texans. However, no team has pulled off the feat since the NFL expanded the playoffs to 14 teams in 2020. 

Out of the four 0-3 teams that have made the postseason since 1990, the Texans are the only one that have pulled off the feat this century. That Texans team lost each their first three games by seven points or less, so they were just a few plays away from starting 3-0. They also played in a very winnable AFC South division. On the other hand, the Dolphins are stuck in a division that they have almost no shot of winning because the Bills exist. The Dolphins have also lost two of their first three games by double digits. 

The one upside for the Dolphins is that the schedule is about to get slightly easier with three of their next four games coming against teams that are currently 0-2: 

Week 4: Jets (0-2)
Week 5: at Panthers (0-2)
Week 6: Chargers (2-0)
Week 7: at Browns (0-2)

The Dolphins might have a sliver of hope now, but if they slip up against any of those 0-2 teams, it will probably be safe to go ahead and write them off. 

The Dolphins are currently the only 0-3 team, but they could have some surprising company this weekend. The 0-2 Chiefs are playing the Giants and the 0-2 Texans are playing the Jaguars. If either of those teams lose, they’ll be facing the same long odds as the Dolphins to get to the playoffs.