Russell Wilson’s time as an NFL starter is winding to an end. It’s been four years since he had a positive passing DVOA, and six since he graced the top 10. We may be able to count his remaining starts on one hand, because the Giants’ super-tough schedule sees one of its rare lulls in Week 5 against the Saints, and that might be the ideal time to put first-round pick Jaxson Dart into the lineup. This was more or less inevitable – most of the mobility and creativity that made him a perennial Pro Bowler are gone. He’s far from the worst starting quarterback in the league, but he’s in the bottom quartile. He’s there to be replaced, and soon, replaced he shall be.
But Russ has one weapon left in his arsenal. It’s a skill where he’s not only still one of the league’s best but is in the discussion for best all-time: the moon ball. Wilson has always had one of the prettiest deep balls in the league. He gets so much air under his throws, so much loft, that it gives his receivers extra time to adjust to the pass and make catches. Calvin Austin III, who played with Russ last year, likened it to catching a punt more than anything else, while opposing cornerbacks say that they’ve struggled to defend them because the passes drop down at such an unusual arc, one they’re not used to seeing. As such, no one has completed more passes of 20-plus air yards than Wilson has since he entered the league. He’s the absolute king of it.
This was apparently news to the Dallas Cowboys, who let Wilson complete seven passes of 20-plus air yards against them last Sunday. That includes three touchdowns, and that includes two go-ahead touchdowns in the final three minutes of the fourth quarter. The Giants may have lost that game, but the Cowboys not defending the moon ball to Malik Nabers with 30 seconds late was absolute coaching malpractice – or course Russ was going to launch one deep, and of course Nabers was going to be on the other end of it. Everyone who has ever watched Russ play knew that what was coming, with the apparent exception of Matt Eberflus.
The two late touchdowns extended Wilson’s lead in a very specific stat. They were Russ’ 17th and 18th go-ahead touchdowns in the fourth quarter or overtime of at least 20 yards. Only a dozen players in NFL history have even thrown 10 of them, and Russ now has a lead that is going to take a long, long time to lose.
Most Go-Ahead Touchdowns of 20+ Yards, 4Q/OT
Rank
Player
Years
Teams
TDs
1
Russell Wilson
2012-2025
SEA/DEN/PIT/NYG
18
T2
Eli Manning
2004-2019
NYG
15
T2
Johnny Unitas
1956-1973
BALC
15
4
Tom Brady
2000-2022
NE/TB
14
T5
Terry Bradshaw
1970-1983
PIT
12
T5
Aaron Rodgers
2005-2025
GB/NYJ
12
T5
Brett Favre
1991-2010
GB/MIN
12
T8
Ken Stabler
1970-1984
OAK/HOU/NO
10
T8
Dan Marino
1983-1999
MIA
10
T8
Warren Moon
1984-2000
HOIL/MIN/SEA
10
T8
Kirk Cousins
2012-2025
WAS/MIN/ATL
10
T8
Drew Brees
2001-2020
SD/NO
10
This week, Sunday Night Football against the Chiefs, could theoretically be the last time a national audience gets to see Russell Wilson start a football game, so forget the forecast – there may be a new moon in the sky, but Russ will provide the full moon ball experience!
oh god that was cheesy
Ahem. Nevertheless, we figured we would use this opportunity to look at deep passing through the first two games in our weekly look at StatsHub. Last season, Russ led all passers with a 121.7% DVOA on passes of at least 15 air yards. Lamar Jackson led the league with 673 DYAR. Caleb Williams led the league with 117 attempts, Sam Darnold led the league with 61 completions, Justin Herbert has 12 touchdowns passes and Jared Goff had a 55.1% completion percentage. Let’s take a look at what we’ve seen so far, and see who might be displacing these leaders in 2025.
Note that this doesn’t include Thursday’s Bills-Dolphins game, but as Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa combined for 1.5 air yards per completion, it’s not particularly relevant.
First off, the obvious caveat in that we’re looking at a subset of a stat after just two weeks, so the sample size is miniscule. This is more “here are some neat things to watch going forward” than anything else, but that’s what you get after two weeks.
And after two weeks, the deep shot DYAR race has three familiar faces and what has to, just has to be a mirage, right? Russ is sitting in second with 164 DYAR thanks in large part to volume – he’s the first to pass 300 yards on deep shots, he’s tied for the league lead with three touchdown passes, he’s tied for third behind Dak Prescott and Baker Mayfield in attempts, and so on and so forth. A lot of that comes from playing in one crazy shootout game, but Russ is going to be Russ right up until the end. I doubt he’ll end up leading in DYAR because it’s a counting stat and he isn’t likely to last the whole season, but he’s got a real chance to be the DVOA leader if he gets his 110 more dropbacks to qualify. That likely means he has to get the Saints start in three weeks, and maybe hold Dart off until something like the Bears in Week 10? We’ll see.
INGLEWOOD, CA – SEPTEMBER 12: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Rams during an NFL game between the Chicago Bears and the Los Angeles Rams on September 12, 2021, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Icon Sportswire)
Matthew Stafford is right next to Russ in all the various deep ball stats since the early 2010s, so it’s not a huge surprise to see him up here, either, in first place with 189 DYAR. The biggest number here might be that accuracy rating – a 100% accuracy rating on deep shots is obviously not sustainable, but he led the league at 61.3% last season. His deep ball has been a big part of the Rams looking so good through two weeks, with Davante Adams and Puka Nacua ranking second and third in deep ball receiving DYAR. This will come down to Earth a little bit, but this is Stafford’s leading skill, too, and as long as that back holds up, the Rams will be contenders.
Lamar Jackson is great at everything, and deep balls falls into the subset of “everything,” so it makes sense that he’s here, too. Jackson’s deep game often is more a response to pressure than it is pre-planned shots like Stafford and Wilson. He’s averaging 3.56 seconds before throwing his deep passes, compared to 2.77 for Wilson and 2.86 for Stafford, in part because he’s already got an avoided sack. Stafford and Wilson have taken their deep shots from clean pockets about 85% of the time; Lamar’s down at 75%. The scale of these will change with a larger sample size, but this backs what we saw in 2024, as well – Lamar often looks deep after he’s done one of his Houdini escapes, and makes the defense pay for failing on a blitz.
And then there’s Daniel Jones, who … I mean, no, right? There’s no way Indiana Jones keeps up this Colts renaissance. It’s not just deep passing – he’s leading the league in passing DYAR and DVOA as well through two weeks – but the big play is just as shocking as everything else he’s done so far in 2025. Last year with New York, he was 20th in deep shot DVOA, but in Indianapolis he’s suddenly an Anthony Richardson Sr. who can actually target a receiver? I’m not buying it; not yet. Remember, the Saints looked like they were revolutionizing offense through two weeks in 2024; two weeks can lie to you. This hot start might belong in a museum, but banking on the Colts to be contenders down the line would be choosing … poorly.
As for last year’s surprise, Sam Darnold was second in deep DYAR in 2024 with 662, because Justin Jefferson is very good. A drop-off in 2025 was to be expected, but sitting in 16th through two weeks is pretty good for the quarterback Darnold has been for his entire career as opposed to just the version from last season. So far, he’s attempted 11 deep passes, and ten of them have been towards Jaxon Smith-Njigba. That appears to be the bulk of the Seattle offense at this point, and it’s no Darnold to Jefferson, but it’s something, I suppose. It would be nice if the rest of the Seattle offense contributed anything to the passing game, as Darnold’s DVOA goes from 68.5% targeting JSN to a league-worst -56.7% targeting anyone else, but I suppose you have to start somewhere.