Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 3’s game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.

America’s Game of the Week it is, somehow, not! But it’s the Week 3 marquee tilt in our hearts. Because the Rams’ return to Lincoln Financial Field feels like unfinished business. January’s divisional round ended with Philadelphia clinging to a 28–22 win, and Los Angeles walked away knowing they had chances. Both teams arrive at 2–0, but the paths couldn’t be more different: the Eagles grinding through close wins against Dallas and Kansas City, the Rams dispatching Houston and Tennessee while playing their best complementary football in years. And—I’ll only reference it this once—the noise will be turned up around the tush push: Philadelphia used the tush push seven times in the 20–17 win over Kansas City last week, and they’ve converted it at a 96.6% clip on fourth-and-1 since 2022—controversy the Eagles will need to drown out at home. Referees are set to call it “tight,” whatever that means. This early September stage won’t decide the NFC, but it will show who controls the trenches when it matters. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 3’s game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Los Angeles Rams. And I couldn’t be more thrilled.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Matthew Stafford has been razor sharp, completing 71% of passes for 543 yards and three touchdowns with a 107.1 rating. The split is clear: a 119.2 passer rating when kept clean versus 73.9 under pressure, a gap of nearly 40 points. His PFF grade sits at 91.5, and he’s producing a 10.0% big-time throw rate against only 2.86% turnover-worthy plays. That efficiency stems from a ruthlessly narrow target tree. Puka Nacua leads the league with 18 receptions and 221 yards, while Davante Adams has added 157 yards and a score; together they command over 54% of Stafford’s attempts. Adams is one touchdown away from tying Mike Evans for ninth all-time, while Stafford is one away from tying Matt Ryan for ninth all-time himself. The funnel has worked—quick reads to Nacua, iso shots to Adams—but it’s a concentrated burden that Philly can key.

Kyren Williams has steadied the ground game with 132 rushing yards, and Los Angeles has been lethal on late downs. They’ve generated 119 yards on third- and fourth-down shorts, most in the NFL, and scored twice on fourth-down rushing plays. Their 439 total yards per game rank seventh in overall efficiency, and they’ve topped 30 points once already. Against an Eagles defense that has allowed 120 rushing yards and three rushing scores across two weeks, that ability to shorten the sticks matters. But attrition looms: rookie defensive tackle Braden Fiske (oblique) is out, and starting corner Ahkello Witherspoon (clavicle) is on IR. That strips depth from both the interior rotation and the secondary. With Adams and Nacua carrying so much of the passing game, any lost defensive balance raises pressure on Stafford to keep matching scores.

Philadelphia’s offense has been conservative by air, with Jalen Hurts throwing for only 253 yards across two games without a touchdown pass. Yet Hurts has avoided interceptions in 11 of his last 12 starts and continues to tilt games with his legs—three rushing touchdowns already, including two in the red zone. His big-time throw rate sits at 1.61%, mirrored by a 1.61% turnover-worthy play rate, underscoring his low-variance passing approach. Saquon Barkley is the engine. He has 148 rushing yards and two scores in 2025, averaging 22 carries per game. Against the Rams, his history is brutal: 460 rushing yards and four touchdowns in two meetings last year, including gains of 78, 72, and 62 yards. Philadelphia owns the league’s best catch rate at 82.9%, though they’re the only team yet to record a receiving touchdown. That paradox highlights how reliant they’ve become on Barkley and Hurts to finish drives.

The Eagles’ defense has been opportunistic, allowing just one passing touchdown and forcing three turnovers. Andrew Mukuba sealed the Chiefs win with a fourth-quarter interception, while Zack Baun leads with 15 tackles. Jalen Carter’s shoulder injury is a concern, but he’s set to be active. His presence commands double-teams that open lanes for Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat. Philadelphia ranks third in pressure rate despite modest sack totals, a sign disruption is there even if finishes are lagging. At home, they’ve been indomitable—11 straight wins as favorites at Lincoln Financial Field. Their overall power rank sits third by PFF, with balance on both sides. The identity is power football: 49.2% of snaps have been runs, and their 0.11 EPA per rush leads the league. Their average of 64 offensive snaps per game reflects sustained control, chewing clock and limiting opponent possessions.

Rams vs. Eagles pick, best bet

Los Angeles’ counter is their own defensive start. They’ve allowed only 14.0 points per game, fourth-best, and just 258.5 total yards per game. Byron Young leads with three sacks, and six different Rams have at least one. They’ve held opponents to a 63.3% completion rate and surrendered only one passing touchdown. Linebacker Nate Landman has 18 tackles, safety Kamren Curl has 17, and corner Cobie Durant has their lone interception. But with Witherspoon out, the secondary’s depth will be tested by A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Pressure depth has masked personnel losses so far, but against Philadelphia’s line, keeping that front four disruptive will be harder.

The market sits at Eagles -3.5 with a total of 44.5. Philadelphia has hit the under in both games this year, while Los Angeles has gone over in four of their last five as underdogs. Philadelphia’s trench advantage and Barkley’s proven production sway my lean toward the Eagles, even as Stafford’s sharpness and the Rams’ ATS form tempt me. Not to mention, Matthew Stafford is my prince, and I believe he can do anything.

Weird to say that I feel like the Eagles need a get-right game at 2-0, but Philly fans get it. This is the game where you keep the main thing the main thing. Thus, Eagles 24, Rams 20.

Saquon Barkley’s burst behind that offensive line will again gash Los Angeles once more. Puka Nacua’s relentless volume and Stafford’s grit will keep the Rams offense alive late, but Jalen Hurts’ legs tilt red-zone drives. They’ll bleed clock and find a dagger to plunge in the Rams if Los Angeles doesn’t get out to a hot start early.

If the Rams do land early shots and force Philadelphia to chase, the game tilts into slight-but-not-seismic variance. A downhill-running Rams defensive side can keep everything in front, tackle in space, and dare Jalen Hurts to string long drives under pressure. Playing from behind, the Eagles lean on tempo, verticals to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and Hurts’ legs on key downs. That profile raises their explosive rate but also exposes them to stalled drives if protection falters. The counterargument says an early Rams surge could shorten the margin and keep this game inside the number. Still, I don’t see it busting −3.5 because Philadelphia’s third-down efficiency sits around 48.1% so far, and they’re 100% on fourth down in limited tries, which supports late-game drive extension even in chase mode. Meanwhile, Los Angeles posted a 41.2% pressure rate in Week 1 and another top-10 defensive efficiency showing in Week 2, but that unit also allowed only 75 net second-half yards to Tennessee—great in a vacuum, yet it came with a game state that won’t mirror a tight finish against an offense that reliably manufactures conversions. Even with an early deficit, Hurts’ scramble-drill and short-yardage packages remain bankable levers to cover a field goal and a hook.

Best bet: Eagles -3.5 (-105) vs. Rams

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For a prop lean, Saquon Barkley over 90.5 rushing yards. The number is higher now than at open, but the context still screams value. Barkley has logged 22 carries per game, handled 81% of snaps last week, and with rookie Will Shipley sidelined, his role is airtight. He shredded this Rams defense for 460 rushing yards and four touchdowns across two meetings last season, ripping three separate runs of 60+ yards. Los Angeles is already allowing 120 rushing yards per game with three rushing scores in 2025, and losing Braden Fiske inside weakens an already vulnerable front. Philadelphia leads the NFL with 0.11 EPA per rush and a 49.2% run rate, giving Barkley volume stability and explosive upside. Even with the higher line, the floor is 20+ carries, and one breakaway can flip the ticket.

Best prop lean: Saquon Barkley o90.5 total rushing yards (-110)

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