Brendan O’Sullivan provides a pick, prediction and preview for the Washington Commanders and Las Vegas Raiders matchup.

The Washington Commanders are looking to build upon their standout 2024 campaign with Jayden Daniels under center. The second-year quarterback is off to a 1-1 start with the team, losing to the Packers in Week 2.

Washington will face the Raiders in Week 3, who are also 1-1 following a Week 2 loss to the Chargers. Las Vegas acquired Geno Smith and drafted Ashton Jeanty in the offseason, so the offense has been revamped from a year ago.

The Commanders are 2.5-point favorites and -155 on the moneyline, while the Raiders are +130 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 43.5 points.

Here’s a prediction and pick for the Commanders vs. Raiders game during Week 3 of the NFL season.

Commanders vs. Raiders prediction, preview

Washington Commanders

The Commanders have Super Bowl aspirations after a terrific rookie season from Daniels last year. The team reached the NFC Championship game, falling to the Eagles. After an offseason bulking up the roster, Daniels and co. are set for a major run in his sophomore campaign.

It started off well with a victory over the Giants, but Week 2 was disappointing. Washington lost 27-18 to the Packers, who project to be a Super Bowl contender this year. If the Commanders expect to compete for a Super Bowl, they’ll need to beat elite teams along the way.

The loss wasn’t the worst part of the week, however. Austin Ekeler tore his Achilles during the game and will be out for the rest of the season. The Commanders will rely on a mixture of Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez Jr. in the backfield. It puts the team at an immediate disadvantage, but it’s possible one of these three backs unlocks new potential within the organization.

Daniels will also be out after spraining his knee in Week 2. Marcus Mariota will start for the first time since 2022. In three games with Washington last year, Mariota totaled 364 passing yards and four touchdowns on 34-of-44 passes. He also added 92 rushing yards and a touchdown on 18 carries.

Although the Commanders are set back without Daniels and Ekeler, Mariota is capable of playing efficient football. He likely won’t stuff the stat sheet, as the team will utilize him as a game manager.

As for the defense, the Commanders allowed six points to the Giants in Week 1 but 27 to the Packers in Week 2. The Raiders are averaging 14.5 points per game after scoring 20 in Week 1 and nine in Week 2. They rank as the 31st best team in terms of points scored this season. Perhaps the Commanders can keep that trend going.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders brought in Smith, Jeanty and head coach Pete Carroll during the offseason in hopes to reshape the offense. Through two games, it hasn’t been great. Las Vegas is averaging just 14.5 points per game and ranks 31st in total points scored this season.

After scoring 20 points against the Patriots in Week 1, the Raiders scored just nine in Week 2. It’s still early, so there’s some time to work out the kinks. Early-season struggles were expected for a team that has a new quarterback, running back and head coach.

On the bright side, the Raiders are 1-1 and have a relatively easy schedule. They play the Commanders without Daniels, Bears, Colts and Titans over the next four games. These are all winnable matchups, especially if the offense starts clicking.

A major reason why Las Vegas is competing with a struggling offense is the defense. It ranks as the fifth best defense in terms of points allowed this season. The Raiders gave up 13 against the Patriots and 20 against the Chargers.

With this level of production on the defensive end, it could mean trouble for Mariota on Sunday. The Commanders’ backup quarterback will get the start with Daniels injured. It already puts Washington. at a disadvantage, but the Raiders will pose an even greater challenge with a stifling defense.

Mariota will likely serve as a game manager, but he also provides some value as a runner. That said, Las Vegas has done a good job of containing quarterbacks this season. Drake Maye rushed four times for 11 yards, and Justin Herbert ran for 31 yards on nine carries.

If the Raiders neutralize Mariota’s rushes, it’ll be even more difficult for Washington to score.

Commanders vs. Raiders pick, best bet

Between injuries and defense, this will be a low-scoring game. The Raiders defense has been excellent, even against solid teams. The Patriots and Chargers aren’t pushovers, yet Las Vegas limited them to 13 and 20 points, respectively.

Washington is up next. It would be a better test if Daniels was playing, but the Commanders are starting Mariota. While he was efficient last year, he wasn’t torching defenses for a ton of points.

On the other side, the Raiders haven’t figured their offense out. There’s a lot to work on still, and Washington’s defense has been good through two weeks.

Best bet: Under 43.5 points (-110)