In this article we’ll evaluate the team performance trends going into Week 4 – these analyses refer heavily on two tables which you can find at the end of the article; the first shows the NFL rankings for average EPA (expected points added) per play for offense and defense while the second shows each NFL defense’s fantasy points allowed per touch to each position.
Let’s jump into our analysis.
Offensive Takeaways
Indianapolis has the highest average offensive EPA/play of 0.22, according to the first chart. They’re making plays efficiently, and Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor are carrying this offense in the right direction. They face a strong Rams defense in Week 4, which will be a true test of their abilities. Buffalo looks strong as well, with a 0.20 EPA/play on offense. Their Week 4 matchup is against New Orleans, who has a -0.06 EPA/play on defense, and just allowed 44 points to the Seahawks. Look to start all your Bills players this week.
Detroit’s offense is fourth in EPA/play on offense (0.18), but they face the Cleveland Browns at home in Week 4. The Browns’ defense holds a 0.02 EPA/play on the season and just shut down the Packers’ offense in Week 3. They’ve only allowed 0.56 points per touch to RBs, but have been weaker against QBs this season. Look for the Lions to attack through the air, and be cautious of their backfield for Week 4.
The Jaguars have taken a step back from the previous week, from nearly 0.1 EPA/play to 0.01. Brian Thomas Jr. has continued to struggle, as has Trevor Lawrence. They face a strong 49ers defense who allow just 0.39 points per touch to QBs and a low 2.35 points per touch to WRs. Look for these struggles to continue through Week 4.
Cincinnati was a tough watch in Week 3. They’ve fallen to the lowest EPA/play in the league, and won’t be seeing much improvement against a solid Denver defense in Week 4.
Defensive Takeaways
The Steelers continue to allow TEs to break out, allowing over three points per touch to them this season. Hunter Henry had a field day last week against this defense, so expect TJ Hockenson to do the same in Week 4.
Miami has allowed the most points per touch (0.78) to QBs this season, and they face the Jets in Week 4, so Tyrod Taylor or, if healthy, Justin Fields can have a ‘field day’ against the Dolphins. This is great news for Garrett Wilson holders as well!
The Ravens cannot stop the run, allowing a whopping 1.2 points per touch to RBs. This gives the Chiefs the opportunity to ignite their ground game. Isiah Pacheco will have the opportunity of the season to show the fantasy world he is back. If he can’t do it in Week 4, it may be time to give up on him.
Trey Benson will finally see the majority of the touches in the Arizona backfield this weekend. They face the Seahawks, who have allowed just 0.67 points per touch to RBs on the year. Don’t be completely discouraged if he underperforms.
The Bears have had major issues stopping receivers, allowing over three points per touch to them this season. They face the Raiders in Week 4, which is great news for new Tre Tucker holders, as well as Jakobi Meyers managers.
