Through three weeks of the 2025 NFL season, only one quarterback drafted after 2020 cracks the top 16 when it comes to advanced stats. All Drake Maye has to show for it is a 1-2 record despite a soft opening schedule.
He’s not the only young franchise cornerstone to trek through a swirling storm of frustration. Recent rookies of the year C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels have been similarly underwhelming thanks, at least in part, to mounting pressure in the pocket. Trevor Lawrence continues to shrink from the potential he showed in 2022’s AFC South-winning campaign. Any recent first round pick who started fewer than four NFL games last season? Hooooo buddy, it’s been rough.
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So which quarterbacks have been the best through the very small sample size of three games? Let’s see what the complicated numbers can tell us.
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through two games. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a graph of 33 quarterbacks (minimum 48 plays) that looks like this:
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NFL QB advanced stats through Week 3. Data via RBSDM.com
Break that into tiers using RBSDM.com’s outstanding and helpful plotting software, and it looks like this:
Once again, it’s a bad time to be a young quarterback who started three NFL games or fewer last season. Let’s get into the full rankings.
Tier I: Another opportunity to appreciate Jared Goff
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) makes a pass against Baltimore Ravens during the second half at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Md. on Monday, Sept. 22, 2025.
1. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.246 EPA+CPOE composite
2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.235
3. Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts: 0.213
4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.199
5. Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks: 0.197
Goff out-dueled the No. 2 quarterback on this list Monday night. Much of that was thanks to his defense swarming Lamar Jackson en route to seven sacks. But with the game on the line, the veteran Los Angeles no longer wanted did this:
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(The Rams won a Super Bowl. The trade was a win for both sides.)
Jones continues to thrive as a high-efficiency passer executing a simple gameplan in Indianapolis. Opponents will catch up to that, but we can enjoy the ride while it lasts. Darnold’s 16.8 EPA in Week 3 was the highest among all quarterbacks, even if it came against the lowly New Orleans Saints.
Tier II: Drake Maye? Huh.
6. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.180 EPA+CPOE composite
7. Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 0.159
8. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.148
9. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.148
Love’s numbers are on the borderline between tiers I and II, but I cannot give him the benefit of the doubt after failing so spectacularly against the Cleveland Browns defense in Week 3 — a game in which he threw one pass that traveled more than eight yards downfield. Maye continues to shine in a way that doesn’t translate to wins, in large part because he’s surrounded by bad blocking and shoddy playmakers. Mayfield has led three last-minute game-winning drives in three games and now has Emeka Egbuka looking like the next link in a chain of amazing wideouts in Tampa.
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Tier III: The dense middle ground of moderately trustworthy QBs (and Patrick Mahomes)
10. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.115 EPA+CPOE composite
11. Tyrod Taylor, New York Jets: 0.107
12. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.106
13. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.106
14. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 0.094
15. Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.087
16. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.086
Ah, so this is where the “veterans we expected to be good” landed. Taylor was good enough to put the Jets in position to win in Week 3, which is all you can ask from a journeyman backup. Murray continues to search for reliable playmakers — Marvin Harrison Jr. hasn’t been that and Trey McBride can only play a single position. Trey Benson’s promotion in the wake of James Conner’s injury could add some extra juice to his offense or merely take away a bruising short-yardage runner and reliable blocker. We’ll see.
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Herbert remains undervalued, even as he pilots the AFC West leaders.
Rodgers in games where he’s pressured at least 30 percent of the time: -9.6 EPA. Rodgers in games where he’s pressured less than 30 percent of the time: 4.3 EPA. He’s averaging just 5.4 air yards per throw in an offense designed to get rid of the ball quickly and keep him from having to use his 41-year-old legs to scramble. That’ll work against teams like the Jets and Patriots, but there’s a ceiling there (and, like most late-stage Steelers seasons, it’s about 10 wins and a Wild Card loss).
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Mahomes has dialed up more downfield throws in an offense without reliable short-range target Rashee Rice. That’s made Tyquan Thornton his WR1 in certain situations, which is an absolutely delightful heckle on poor Bill Belichick.
Tier IV: A truly weird cohort
17. Mac Jones, San Francisco 49ers: 0.079 EPA+CPOE composite
18. Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.069
19. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: 0.061
20. Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints: 0.060
Jones is another testimony in the “Kyle Shanahan can make any quarterback a winner” gospel. Smith did some heavy lifting late in a game that had already been decided in Week 3, but even if you exclude his garbage time numbers he’d still clock in at No. 18 (from a 0.069 composite to 0.061).
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Rattler has the physical tools to be a high value backup or low level starter. It’s Kellen Moore’s job to maximize that in what’s otherwise a lost season in New Orleans. Williams’ 16.5 EPA dismantling the Cowboys was the fourth-highest single game EPA of 2025 so far.
Tier V: Eeesh, the young veterans are going through it.
Sep 21, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) reacts after an interception in the 4th quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Travis Register-Imagn Images
21. Russell Wilson, New York Giants: 0.050 EPA+CPOE composite
22. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.042
23. Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.039
24. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 0.028
25. Justin Fields, New York Jets: 0.027
26. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.023
27. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.020
28. Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns: 0.019
29. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 0.013
30. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.001
Here’s where a calm wave of disappointment washes over fans. Seeing Stroud, Daniels and Lawrence down here is frustrating — three guys who were recent(ish) top-two draft picks and Pro Bowlers. Stroud’s pressure rate has declined in each of his games since Week 1 as his play-action rate has risen. That hasn’t led to bigger returns from a depleted passing attack and now Houston has an offense averaging fewer than 10 points per game.
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Lawrence threw 11 passes that traveled at least 10 yards downfield vs. Houston and completed two of them. If you watched Texans-Jaguars Sunday, I am truly sorry. Daniels is down here primarily due to one inefficient game where the Packers pounded him into dust (and kept him from making a Week 3 start). If anyone in this triumvirate is going to turn things around in 2025, it’s him.
Russell Wilson’s EPA when not playing the Dallas Cowboys: NEGATIVE 32.9!
Tier VI: A bad year to be a young QB who didn’t play many NFL games in 2024
31. Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans: -0.004 EPA+CPOE composite
32. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons: -0.009
33. J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings: -0.013
Ah, so maybe that’s why Kevin O’Connell is OK with his young quarterback taking as much time as he needs to return to the lineup.
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This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL QB ranks Week 4: A young crop of Icarus quarterbacks