After getting a week off to prepare for this week’s Big Ten opener against Oregon, the Nittany Lions are still looking poised to make a postseason run this year. Despite some sluggish starts on offense against inferior opponents, Penn State still has the makings of a College Football Playoff contender. And according to Erick Smith’s updated postseason playoff and bowl projections for USA TODAY, Penn State is still on track for a first-round bye with one of the top four seeds.

Smith has Penn State securing the No. 4 seed overall, granting Penn State a bye in the first round. The College Football Playoff changed the seeding policy this season to award the top four seeds to the top four teams in the final College Football Playoff rankings, regardless if that team was a conference champion or not. In Smith’s latest projections, Ohio State is the No. 1 overall seed, suggesting the Buckeyes may be the Big Ten champion. The No. 2 seed goes to Georgia and the No. 3 seed belongs to Miami in Smith’s latest projections.

Advertisement

Other Big Ten teams in Smith’s updated projections include Oregon and Indiana, just like last season. Smith projects Oregon to host Florida State in the first round, and Indiana would visit Texas Tech. Penn State’s first opponent in the quarterfinal round would be LSU, which Smith has defeating Tulane in an in-state playoff matchup in the first round. Smith also projects Penn State to advance to the semifinal round for a matchup with Ohio State, which could potentially be the third matchup between the two programs this season, between the regular season, the Big Ten championship game, and the playoff.

In a way, Penn State’s postseason scenarios will begin being a bit more refined starting this week as the Nittany Lions host Oregon for the first major test of the season. A win would certainly keep Penn State in firm control of one of the top four seed projections moving forward, but a loss could dramatically alter the landscape for James Franklin and his squad.

Follow Kevin McGuire on Threads, Bluesky, Instagram, TikTok, and Facebook.

Follow Nittany Lions Wire on X, Facebook, and Threads.

This article originally appeared on Nittany Lions Wire: Penn State’s updated College Football Playoff projection in Week 5