Tua Tagovailoa’s decline in 2025 has been one of the quietest but most significant stories at quarterback this season. After three straight years ranking in PFSN’s top 10 in QB Impact (QBi), he now sits 16th through the early part of the year, his lowest placement since 2021. What makes this surprising is not just the number itself, but the reasons behind it: even when kept clean, Tagovailoa has not been producing at the level he once did.
What Explains Tua Tagovailoa’s Drop in QB Impact?
For three seasons (2022–2024), Tagovailoa consistently carved up defenses whenever his offensive line gave him time. According to PFSN, he ranked 3rd in the league in clean pocket EPA per dropback during that stretch, trailing only Brock Purdy and Jared Goff. QBi, which blends efficiency with contextual factors like protection and situational execution, reflected that dominance. His 83.8 mark in 2022 placed him 4th, while he stayed in the top 10 in both 2023 and 2024.
This season, that edge has disappeared. Tagovailoa’s clean pocket efficiency has plummeted to 19th, which has dragged his overall QBi ranking down to 75.2, good for just 16th. For the Dolphins, this shift matters because the metric is designed to isolate quarterback impact, not just raw stats.
PFSN’s breakdown suggests that when pressure isn’t present, Tagovailoa is missing opportunities at a rate uncommon for his recent standard. That changes the math dramatically because clean-pocket performance accounts for a large share of a quarterback’s season-long efficiency.
The pattern behind the steady decline is hard to ignore:
2022: 83.8 QBi, 4th overall2023: 80.7 QBi, 7th overall2024: 83.2 QBi, 8th overall2025: 75.2 QBi, 16th overall
While his numbers rebounded slightly in 2024 after a dip in 2023, the current drop is sharper than anything in his recent history. This is the first time under Mike McDaniel that his QBi placement has fallen outside the top 10. The fact that his raw QBi figure has taken such a hit, not just his ranking, indicates this isn’t just about other quarterbacks improving but rather about his own struggles in areas that used to be strengths.
That’s especially notable considering his efficiency as a rhythm thrower has been one of the cornerstones of Miami’s offense. In past seasons, Tagovailoa thrived in the intermediate middle of the field, translating clean pockets into rapid completions that kept defenses on their heels. This year, those same setups have resulted in stalled possessions and lower expected points per play.
The Dolphins have invested heavily in ensuring their offensive line creates cleaner environments for their quarterback. From free-agent signings to a system built on timing and spacing, the supporting cast is designed to maximize Tagovailoa’s accuracy. When he’s executing, Miami can stretch any defense to its limit. When he isn’t, the offense loses its defining advantage.
MORE: PFSN’s QB Impact Metric
PFSN’s QBi model values context, meaning it separates inflated production against bad coverage looks from true quarterback-driven results. Tagovailoa’s 2025 decline shows up most starkly when viewed through that lens. In other words, this isn’t just about defenses adjusting or bad luck; it’s about his ability to capitalize when the table is set.
The difference between a top-10 QBi quarterback and one hovering closer to league average is massive in a conference loaded with elite talent. For Miami, the margin between competing for playoff position and chasing wild-card spots could easily come down to whether Tagovailoa recalibrates his clean-pocket efficiency.
In PFSN’s most recent Power Rankings, the Dolphing have plummeted to 28th. In our consensus rankings (which combine major outlets like FOX, CSB, NFL, and others), they currently sit with an average ranking of 29.1.
However, a bigger issue for Miami right now is Tua’s view of what is happening with the offense. After their most recent loss to the Buffalo Bills, the Dolphins’ QB spoke to the media and seemed to shift blame to others on his game-sealing interception.
“I thought I was in rhythm, in timing of the play, seen the flat defender go over the top of Jaylen, Jaylen’s turning around,” Tagovailoa said. “That was a really good play by the defender. I had some color in my face trying to maneuver the throw. But 10 out of 10 times, if we’re looking at that same thing, I think I’d still try to work that timing of hitting that spot. I think the linebacker made a great play on that.”
At this point in 2025, the spotlight is on whether Tagovailoa can reverse the trend. If he doesn’t, Miami could find itself struggling to match the production of AFC contenders who not only protect their quarterbacks but also see them capitalize at the highest level.