The New England Patriots are 1-2. Realistically, if not for a comedy of ball-handling errors on Sunday, they should be 2-1.
Nevertheless, with the 1-2 Panthers visiting Foxboro on Sunday as 5.5-point underdogs, the Patriots should (there’s that word again) manage to head into October with a 2-2 record, thus buoying preseason hopes and expectations for a seven-plus-win season for Mike Vrabel and Co.
Yet with the primary story throughout the winter, spring and summer focusing on the Patriots’ lack of high-end talent across the board, it’s a worthwhile time to take a moment and evaluate if any areas of the roster have outperformed expectations.
The short answer: Not really.
Digging through Pro Football Focus’ player grade rankings, the picture is not pretty for most areas on the roster.
The positives
You might as well start with the high points, because there aren’t many.
Free-agent signing Harold Landry III ranks as the eighth-best edge rusher on PFF with an 88.3 grade. That grade is reflective of Landry registering 3.5 sacks thus far, though it’s worth noting his highest full-season PFF grade was last year (70.5). The 29-year-old may still be on the ascent.
And at quarterback, Drake Maye ranks 16th out of 36 quarterbacks who qualify for the snap count minimum, with his 71.2 grade. On the one hand, he’s behind guys like Caleb Williams (78.1, 12th), Tyrod Taylor (72.7, 14th) and Mac Jones (71.3, 15th). On the other, he’s ahead of Jayden Daniels (71.0), Patrick Mahomes (70.3), Jared Goff (68.4) and Lamar Jackson (68.1).
The Patriots are also — as expected — solid at tight end. Austin Hooper ranks 12th out of 68 tight ends, while Hunter Henry is not far behind at 18th.
That Maye and the tight ends have performed relatively well thus far should be looked at in proper context, though. That’s coming now.
Offensive line
Priorities No. 1, 2, 3 and maybe even 4 this offseason all sat on the offensive line. After last year’s catastrophe, the team needed to properly invest resources into the O-line. They did so on the coaching staff, with the hiring of Doug Marrone along with assistants Jason Houghtaling and Robert Kugler, and they did so in the draft, using the No. 4 overall pick on Will Campbell while also drafting interior lineman Jared Wilson in the top 100 and tackle Marcus Bryant in the seventh round.
With the free-agent additions of Morgan Moses at right tackle (three-year deal with $11 million guaranteed) and Garrett Bradbury at center ($9.5 million guaranteed on two-year deal), the team did all that could have been reasonably expected to shore up the line.
The results thus far are … uninspiring.
At tackle, Campbell ranks 35th out of 70 eligible players, while Moses ranks 42nd. That is tackle play that could be summed up as satisfactory, which represents a major leap forward from last year but still leaves plenty of room for improvement.
At guard, it’s a touch worse. Mike Onwenu, the lone holdover from last year’s line, ranks 39th out of 76 eligible guards, while the rookie Wilson ranks 51st out of 76.
And at center, the veteran Bradbury ranks 27th out of 36.
As stated, it’s an improvement from last season’s disaster. But it also shows that the entire offense — from the quarterback to running backs to pass catchers — is working at a slight disadvantage with a line that only has one starter in the top half of the league at his position.
It is worth noting that collectively, the Patriots have the ninth-best team pass block grade at 63.8, but they rank 30th in run blocking at 48.0.
Wide receivers
Adding Stefon Diggs was supposed to have elevated the wide receiver group as a whole. So far, that hasn’t been the case.
With a 66.5 grade, Diggs ranks 50th out of 114 eligible receivers.
The Patriots don’t have any receivers in the top 32, with Kayshon Boutte leading the way with a 69.8 rating, 38th-best in the league.
Mack Hollins ranks 85th, while DeMario Douglas ranks 108th.
The positive spin would have to be that Diggs is still getting back to game speed after suffering his torn ACL last Oct. 27, and that he’s generally looked quick and springy during his 110 snaps. Yet with just 13 receptions for 112 yards and no touchdowns through three weeks, the production has been lacking.
Running backs
Perhaps Rhamondre Stevenson would rank higher … if not for his two fumbles on Sunday. As it is, he ranks 36th out of 57 running backs with a 58.8 grade, while rookie TreVeyon Henderson is 45th out of 57 with a 55.4 rating. Antonio Gibson doesn’t have enough snaps to qualify, but he has a 48.5 rating thus far, ninth-worst among all running backs.
The investments in Stevenson (in the second year of a four-year, $36 million contract extension) and Henderson (No. 38 overall pick in April’s draft) should be yielding better results.
Defense
Outside of the aforementioned Landry, you can look anywhere on the defense and find trouble.
Alex Austin, who’s been thrust into extra playing time during Christian Gonzalez’s absence, ranks 101st out of 102 cornerbacks. Linebacker Christian Elliss, who was benched Sunday, ranks dead last among 73 eligible linebackers.
K’Lavon Chaisson, New England’s edge defender opposite Landry, ranks 81st out of 115 with a 58.0 grade.
Carlton Davis III, a notable free-agent signing, ranks 48th out of 102 corners, while defensive captain and fellow free-agent signee Robert Spillane ranks 57th out of 73 linebackers.
The rest of the secondary — Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson at 35th and 39th, respectively, out of 76 safeties and Marcus Jones being the 70th-best cornerback — doesn’t help matters.
The defensive tackle position could be considered a strength for the Patriots, though it’s noteworthy that neither Milton Williams nor Christian Barmore have the best grade at that spot. That distinction belongs to Khyiris Tonga, whose 74.3 grade ranks him 21st among 120 interior D-linemen. Williams (69.8, 34th) and Barmore (69.7, 35th) have graded out OK but still outside of the top 32.
Not the special teams, too?!
Yes, unfortunately for rookie Andy Borregales, he ranks 34th out of 34 kickers with a 38.0 grade on field goals and PATs. It’s been a rocky start for the sixth-round pick. (Parker Romo, who was released by the Patriots at the end of the summer, hasn’t fared much better. He has a 45.7 grade, fifth-worst in the NFL.)
And punter Bryce Baringer has been about league average, ranking 17th out of 32 punters with a 64.2 grade.
Where it should improve
This obviously involves some projection, but Barmore and Williams have shown they can be a handful for opposing offensive lines. That duo should be expected to at least climb toward the top 20.
The cornerbacks group should get a massive boost from the expected return of Christian Gonzalez, whose 76.0 grade last season was 21st among 222 corners. Davis should theoretically perform better, too, once Gonzalez’s return makes his work a bit easier as the No. 2 corner on the field. Robert Spillane also put together a solid game on Sunday after a brutal showing a week prior in Miami, indicating his pride could propel him to a more consistent performance level with his new team.
There’s room for positive outlooks on the development of Campbell into a top-32 tackle and the progression of Diggs back into a top-32 receiver. Diggs ranked 21st last season before the injury. Douglas’ 48.9 grade is also not at all in line with his previous season grades of 70.0 last year and 74.4 as a rookie in 2023.
And there’s certainly the chance for some growth from Henderson and Kyle Williams, who’s taken just 26 snaps this season.
Yet overall, the first three weeks of the season do paint the picture that many cautioned would be the hurdle that this team would have difficulty clearing in year one under Vrabel. They clearly still have a ways to go in the talent department before they can be considered one of the better teams in the NFL.