Is Matthew Stafford suffering from tunnel vision?

There has been a lot rumbling about how Matthew Stafford has been doling out targets on pass plays this season. Although it is still very early in the season, the Rams have so far concentrated their targets amongst only two receivers and many are wondering if this is a problem or not.

That all depends on what Sean McVay wants his offense to be moving forward, but it’s certainly unusual.

Through the first three games of the season, Stafford has zoned in on Puka Nacua and Davante Adams for an amazing 69% of his throws, 67% of catches, and 74% of the yards. 69% of targets thrown at the top two is by far the strongest distillation since McVay took over in 2017: No other pair in the McVay era is over 50%.

Is this a year-to-year happening? A quirk of the McVay offense or Stafford in a state of tunnel vision?

It’s actually quite an outlier on both accounts. Last year, Stafford really spread the ball around. In the year-to-year numbers chart below, you can see that the Rams target shares have been stable throughout McVay’s nine years and through both quarterbacks, Stafford and Jared Goff. Not only WR#1 and #2, but all the way down the food chain. Even the crazy 2002 season with four different quarterbacks is not terribly out of balance.

The numbers below are from Pro Football Reference , they are formatted as leaders in order, not a subjective opinion of who’s WR#1 and so forth down the line. The players names are included to give an idea the individuals being targeted.

2025 – 93 targets

WR #1 & 2: 64 – 68.8% Puka Nacua (35), Dante Adams (29)

WR #3 & 4: 13 – 14% Kyren Williams (7), Tyler Higbee (6)

WR #5 & 6: 9 – 9.7% Jordan Whittington (5), Davis Allen (4)

WR #7 & 8: 5 – 5.4% Tutu Atwell (3), Colby Parkinson (2)

2024 – 541

1 & 2: 206 – 38.1% Nacua (106), Kupp (100)

3 & 4: 126 – 23.3% Demarcus Robinson (64), Atwell (62)

5 & 6: 90 – 16.6% Parkinson (49), Tyler Johnson (41)

7 & 8: 68 – 12.6% Williams (40), Whittington (28)

2023 – 555

1 & 2: 255 – 45.9% Nacua (160), Kupp (95)

3 & 4: 137 – 24.7% Higbee (70), Atwell (67)

5 & 6: 87 – 15.7% Williams (48), Robinson (39)

7 & 8: 29 – 5.2% Van Jefferson (15), Darrell Henderson (14)

2022 – 517

1 & 2: 206 – 39.8% Higbee (108), Kupp (98)

3 & 4: 113 – 21.6% Ben Skowronek (61), Allen Robinson (52)

5 & 6: 79 – 15.3% Jefferson (44), Atwell (35)

7 & 8: 54 – 10.4% Brandon Powell (32), Henderson (22)

2021 – 602

1 & 2: 280 – 46.5% Kupp (191), Jefferson (89)

3 & 4: 154 – 25.6% Higbee (85), Robert Woods (69)

5 & 6: 88 – 14.6% Odell Beckham (48), Henderson (40)

7 & 8: 53 – 8.8% Sony Michel (33), Skowronek (20)

2020 – 562

1 & 2: 253 – 45% Woods (129), Kupp (124)

3 & 4: 143 – 25.4% Josh Reynolds (81), Gerald Everett (62)

5 & 6: 93 – 16.5% Higbee (60), Malcom Brown (33)

7 & 8: 55 – 9.8% Jefferson (31), Henderson (24)

2019 – 612

1 & 2: 273 – 44.6% Woods (139), Kupp (134)

3 & 4: 171 – 28% Higbee (89), Brandin Cooks (72)

5 & 6: 109 – 17.8% Everett (60), Todd Gurley (49)

7 & 8: 50 – 8.17% Reynolds (43), Johnny Mundt (7)

2018 – 545

1 & 2: 247 – 45.3% Woods (130), Cooks (117)

3 & 4: 136 – 25% – Gurley (81), Kupp (55),

5 & 6: 103 – 18.9% Reynolds (53), Everett (50)

7 & 8: 41 – 7.5% Higbee (34), Brown (7)

2017 – 510

1 & 2: 181 – 35.5% Kupp (94), Gurley (87)

3 & 4: 155 – 30.4% Woods (85), Sammy Watkins (70)

5 & 6: 77 – 15.1% Higbee (45), Everett (32)

7 & 8: 46 – 9% Reynolds (24), Tavon Austin (22)

Who should get the targets?

It all depends on how you think the offense should be framed. If a team can match a gun-slinging quarterback with a bonafide play maker, they’re crazy not get the ball into his hands as often as possible. The negative side is, in theory, scheming a defense to shut down one receiver is well within possibility, leaving options sorely limited. Another school of thought is to spread the ball around to a full cast of pass catchers, effectively turning your quarterback into a point guard, distributing the ball into open territory. Obviously, there’s a higher degree of difficulty in synching up with six different receiving styles.

69 percent of targets thrown at two players is an extraordinary number. Extrapolating the numbers to date across 14 more games would total a whopping 364 targets aimed towards Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

Targeting Nacua, 10+ times per game is a no-brainer and simply good business. He can create separation, reel in tough/contested passes, and is strong runner after the catch. His target share compares favorably against all other top-tier NFL receivers. Zeroing in on him 160 to 180 tries should be standard.

Adams, in his prime, was a receiver of equivalent grade, At 32 after 12 NFL seasons, his targets and receptions have not spiraled down depreciatively, but his catch percentage has, 57% over his last 525 targets. It has been obvious that the Rams are forcing some of his targets.

Do you think Sean McVay should make it a point to get the other wide outs involved? How about the tight ends and running backs? Tell us in the comments if you see this as a problem that needs to be solved or if Nacua and Adams are the only ones deserving.

There was a time, when the L.A. offense was quite explosive, that Higbee and Gurley were being targeted 80 times a season. Or is it all much ado about nothing? After all, the offensive problems in last Sunday’s loss had very little to do with targets, it was about a lack of execution in the red zone.

What should Sean McVay and Stafford do against the Colts this week?

Is Matthew Stafford suffering from tunnel vision?

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