Woof. So, when you lose an unexpected game to a team like Cleveland, just how bad does it hurt you? Was it a weird one-off as is common in the NFL, or a harbinger of things to come? Well….

For your old-timey power rankings, there are plenty of options to choose from around the old internet, or you can just ask ChatGPT which will tell you that the Vikings rebounded because of Pete Wentz falling out of the end zone, probably. Everyone has a Power Ranking. People LOVE Power Rankings! But over here in analytical nerd land we’re trying something a little different. This is the futuristic neural net version of power rankings, and we’re using our best cyber-neurons to generate neurotically objective power rankings. Since power rankings are all about arguing about why they rankings are wrong, I’ve decided it’s disappointing to be subjectively wrong like everyone else. If we’re going to be wrong, we’re going to be objectively wrong. And so, in the spirit of being objectively wrong we have created C.A.L.C.U.L.A.T.O.R., the Comprehensive Analysis of League Competition Using Latest Analytics To Organize Rankings.

What goes into Calculator? Basically, every advanced stat I have available, in addition to data based on net point differential, and the current Super Bowl odds from our friends at FanDuel. I run some formulas to smooth everything out, create a unified scale, and here we go! We had quite a bit of movement this week, but we’re starting to get a clear view of the haves (Buffalo) and the have-nots (the Titans are “Titaning” their grip on last place).

1. Buffalo Bills: CALCULATOR Score: 124.24, Change from last week: 9.75 – The Bills actually trail the Packers in DVOA, and their defense has been iffy, but they have the best Super Bowl odds in the league, and a schedule that seemingly gets easier every week. Above all else, they have the MVP favorite, and a good quarterback goes a long way.

2. Green Bay Packers: 107.35, -15.28 – The Packers took a tumble and sit quite a ways below the Bills, but they’re still pretty high mostly because the Ravens got blasted by the Lions (see below and also see below). I think the bottom line with Green Bay is that even though they played terribly, and certainly deserved to lose, they still probably should have won the game in spite of everything. Now, the offensive line is REALLY banged up with six players appearing on the injury report this week, and that could absolutely be a long term issues, but only the Bills and Ravens have better Super Bowl odds, so bettors do not see this as a long term issue, and given that they play the Cowboys this week, owners of the league’s 26th ranked pass rush win rate, it’s likely not even a short term problem.

3. Baltimore Ravens: 103.89, -21.64 – The Ravens seem to do this every year, at least recently. They’ll play pretty well, especially when judged off of the major advanced analytics metrics, but it just won’t translate into consistent winning. They’re obviously very good, and will surely make the playoffs, and there is no shame in losing to the Bills, and a rebounding Lions team. That said, at some point Baltimore does need to WIN some of these games, you know? They have scored the most points in the AFC, which is nice, but they’ve also allowed the second most. They’re +600 to win it all, but it’s worth keeping an eye on that defense, which has been second worst against the run.

4. Detroit Lions: 93.72, 11.01 – Sigh, no one ever said this is going to be easy. The Packers may have won the battle in their opening week win against the Lions, but the Lions have come roaring (sorry) back, destroying the Bears and the Ravens. And they may win the war, as the Packers’ loss to the Browns was largely due to an injury inflicted on Zach Tom by Aidan Hutchinson on a pretty dirty play. If the Packer offensive line continues to struggle, you can blame the Lions. It will be interesting to see how they perform against the Browns this week, as they’ve largely gotten healthy against atrocious defenses, and while the Browns have a lot of holes, they have the potential to make Jared Goff look silly. The Lions have a higher DVOA than the Packers and trail them in EPA by .002.

5. Philadelphia Eagles: 91.47, -6.01 – One interesting note about this weekend is that the Packers were hardly along in losing ground at the top. The Eagles and Rams both took a minor step back as well, as part of the insane portion of the slate where there were three blocked field goals within 10 minutes, two of which were returned for touchdowns. The Eagles’ Jordan Davis was the most fun of the bunch, as he walked off the Rams by returning his block of Josh Karty’s 44-yarder for a game winning touchdown. That said, it was hardly an impressive overall performance from the Eagles, who trailed 26-7 with 12 minutes left in the third quarter, and needed a furious rally to take a one-point lead with 1:48 remaining that still probably should have come up short. The Eagles are getting a LOT of benefit of the doubt by virtue of the status as reigning champs at +750, but they’re just 17th in DVOA.

6. Los Angeles Rams: 89.90, -3.6 – Speak of the devil. The Rams rank highly and deservedly so, but just as the Eagles really had no business winning this game, the Rams had no business choking it away. While they got out to a dominant lead, they easily could have put the game completely away had they not settled for six field goal attempts on the day, with Karty hitting four. They scored only two touchdowns, and that lack of efficiency left them vulnerable to Philly’s wacky comeback. It’s also worth noting that the Rams are well ahead of the Eagles in EVERY major metric except their Super Bowl odds, which sit at +1700. I, personally, would much rather put my money on the Rams, who among other things, have the highest PFF grade of any team.

7. Indianapolis Colts: 89.38, 11.44 – Our plucky Daniel Jones-led underdogs moved to 3-0 with a victory over the Titans, who are terrible. And hey, while the Colts may not REALLY be the 7th best team in the league and will face a good and probably angry Rams team this week, they also play in the AFC South, which is terrible. The Colts are second overall in DVOA, but it’s important to remember that the D in DVOA stands for “Defense-Adjusted” and because of sample size, no adjustments take place until week 5. Still, they’ve easily taken care of the terribly teams they have beaten and eked out a win over the Broncos to boot. If they can knock off the Rams, this lofty ranking will start to look a lot more realistic.

8. Los Angeles Chargers: 85.88, -5.16 – It was a bit of a rock fight, and it took a wild comeback in the last five minutes, but the Chargers managed to knock off their division rivals and take a commanding two game lead in the West, in which they have also secured a win over every other team. Justin Herbert is finally enjoying an adequate supporting cast, and their defense is not going to lose games. They’re fifth in EPA and PFF grade, but they’re still behind Kansas City in Super Bowl odds.

9. Washington Commanders: 81.13, 13.25 – Here’s a truly fascinating one. The Commanders’ only loss so far was to the Packers, and they put a hurting on the Raiders on Sunday, 41-24, but they’re very banged up and had to rely on Marcus Mariota at quarterback, and it was a really strange 41-point performance. They Commanders got a 90-yard punt return from Jayline Lane for seven of those points, and a 60-yard run from Jeremy McNichols for seven more. Outside of those 14 points, the Washington offense was just OK against a Raider team that’s surprisingly good against the run. That said, they got the job done, and they’re still hanging around the upper echelon of the NFC as a result. They’ve been VERY good on special teams, which is giving their third overall DVOA a major boost.

10. Seattle Seahawks: 79.81, 12.25 – What is Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, and Daniel Jones are all actually really good quarterbacks and it’s just impossible to be good in New York? Darnold is 10th in CPOE (one spot ahead of Jordan Love) and 7th in EPA per Play. Perhaps more impressively, Seattle is FIRST in DVOA after destroying Pittsburgh and New Orleans. They’re second in PFF grade. Now, New Orleans is just awful, but Pittsburgh is only regular bad, and Seattle has been genuinely good. They’re second in the NFC in points scored, and only the Packers have allowed fewer. A genuinely interesting team.

11. San Francisco 49ers: 78.88, -.48 – They’re a bit of a mess, their quarterback is Mac Jones, and all three of their wins are by less than one score, but the 49ers are 3-0 and in pretty good shape, and doing the normal Kyle Shanahan thing of playing efficient offense with like one good player. Still there are cracks here as the 49ers are generally overrated by advanced stats, and 11th is pretty low for them. They’ve been undoubtedly lucky, their division is tough, and I would not be long on San Francisco.

12. Kansas City Chiefs: 76.79, 10 – KC got a much-needed win against the Giants while likely ending the career of Russell Wilson, but it wasn’t an impressive performance as Wilson threw two pretty terrible picks, and the Chiefs couldn’t really stop Cam Skattebo. The Giants have declared that rookie Jaxson Dart will be starting henceforth, and had he played in this game, maybe the Giants win. Instead, KC remains +1400 to win it all, and extremely mediocre in everything else.

13. Minnesota Vikings: 71.69, 27.85 – And all of a sudden, the team with the terrible second year quarterback is tied for first in the NFC North. I’ve seen a few commenters online giving the Vikings guff for moving on from Sam Darnold, but maybe it doesn’t matter. Carson Wentz was perfectly efficient against Cincinnati on Sunday, Jordan Mason even more so on the ground, and, well, look where the Vikings’ defense is living on this chart.

Brian Flores man. The Vikings don’t need much on offense to be good.

14. Jacksonville Jaguars: 71.49, -2.9 – They’ve beaten the Panthers and Texans, and I just can’t bring myself to care about the Jaguars at all. They’re a bit better but Trevor Lawrence…it might just be too late for surfer boy.

15. Tampa Bay Bucs: 71.34, 6.83 – When the Bucs drafted Emeka Egbuka, many questioned why. The answer of course is that while Mike Evans is a Hall of Famer, he’s pretty old and will now miss 3-4 weeks with a hammy and have his 1000-yard streak in major jeopardy. Egbuka’s been phenomenal, and for a team that relies heavily on its offense to run the NFC South, that’s a huge deal. Their offense is fifth in EPA per drop back, which is a major reason they are 7th overall in EPA per play. Oh, and they’re also the best rush defense in football.

16. Denver Broncos: 65.35, -2.79 – Bo Nix just isn’t it. In college he checked down more than any other major program quarterback, and now in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats, he’s the least aggressive quarterback in the league. Given the elite nature of the Denver defense, a careful quarterback wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, but he’s also not the careful. He’s thrown three interceptions, which matches Russell Wilson, a quarterback whose general philosophy is now a belief that he can throw the ball over them thar mountains. The rest of the Broncos are pretty good, and if they had Sam Darnold or Geno Smith of maybe even Carson Wentz… By the way, Denver is oddly low in PFF score where they rank 28th, behind the Raiders and Texans.

17. Arizona Cardinals: 64.05, -8.93 – Pedigree is important, and generally speaking, consensus great prospects selected near the top of the draft tend to perform better than those drafted later, but at some point, you need to produce. Kyler Murray is in his seventh season as a starter and while he’s often fine, he’s never lived up to being the first overall pick in the draft. He probably never will. Marvin Harrison Jr. also may be a problem. He may have his famous dad’s name, but he does not have his hands, which has severely limited his effectiveness early in his career. Arizona’s defense has been quite good, and it’s time for their offense to hold up their end.

18. Atlanta Falcons: 54.11, -17.51 – I did not watch this game, but the Falcons lost to the CAROLINA PANTHER 30-0. Atlanta substantially outgained Carolina, and the Panthers weren’t even very good in this game believe it or not, but as is often the case, turnovers were the story. I am floored that Atlanta is still this high, but they’re pretty average in EPA. Personally, if you lose by 30 to Carolina, I think you should probably be last.

19. Pittsburgh Steelers: 51.78, 8.03 – Aaron only threw for 139 yards, but the Steelers were just efficient enough to skate by the Pats, who couldn’t hand onto the ball to save their lives. The Steelers have not been good, and

20. Carolina Panthers: 51.71, 15.91 – The Panthers shoot up the charts mostly because they didn’t have the worst quarterback in the game for once. Bryce Young “outdueled” Michael Penix, the defense scored a shutout, and so they’re one of the biggest movers of the week. This is one where I believe Atlanta is bad more than I believe Carolina isn’t.

21. Chicago Bears: 51.36, 20.26 – The Cowboys can’t stop anybody, and last week, the Bears were anybody. Let’s hope it rolls over into this week. The Bears actually have a very favorable schedule in the near term with the Raiders this week, followed by the Saints, Bengals, Giants, a possibly still banged up Commanders team, and the Vikings. They do face the Ravens, but if the Bears start to climb the rankings a bit, don’t be overly shocked. That said, they’re still quite bad, and that defense is going to undermine them frequently.

22. Cleveland Browns: 49.20, 6.83 – The Browns deserve praise for knocking off the Packers, but it was still an ugly win that highlighted just how dysfunctional the team still is. The defensive front may be good, but everything else is a mess, especially the offense. They might steal a few more wins from teams with compromised offensive lines, but that’s about it.

23. Dallas Cowboys: 48.08, -8.31 – The Cowboys are 26th in Pass Rush Win Rate now, which is legit hilarious. That Packers offensive line is extremely beat up, and this will be a test of just how bad the Cowboys are without Micah Parsons.

24. Houston Texans: 45.56, -3.63 – I hate watching this team play. Just hate it. They seem determined to get CJ Stroud killed, and to create as many third and long situations as humanly possible. This team is actually being propped up by their +8000 Super Bowl odds, which are still bad, but not as bad as everyone else way down here in the rankings.

25. New England Patriots: 44.48, .23 – If you’ve ever read anything I’ve written about quarterback play, you likely know of my obsession with “pressure to sack ratio,” especially for college prospects. Players like Justin Fields, Will Levis, and yes, Caleb Williams had unacceptably high P/S ratios in college, and it’s haunted their NFL careers to this point. Maye just barely avoided my red flag cutoff of 20% in college, with a 19.5%, but I still put a yellow on him, and so far in the NFL he’s taken a big step back. He currently ranks fifth worst just behind rookie Cam Ward, and he’s getting sacked on 27.9% of his drop backs. It’s not necessarily a death sentence, but success stories tend to be either highly mobile like Lamar Jackson or consistently hurt like Joe Burrow. The Steelers got to Maye five times and picked him off once. The Patriots have a lot of problems, but first and foremost, they need to stop getting their quarterback killed.

26. New York Jets: 42.6, -1.55 – The Jets ALMOST pulled off a thrilling upset of the Bucs via the weekend’s other blocked field goal/scoop and score from Will McDonald. Alas, Baker Mayfield was too good and drove the Bucs right back into field goal range. The Jets have been fun bad, and about as good as the Cowboys, even if Vegas thinks they’re 4 times less likely to win it all.

27. New York Giants: 39.34, -1.49 – Russell Wilson was great, and then he was weird and funny pushing nanobubbles and football shaped bread. His career likely ended last week with a series of passes that appeared to be intended for the goal posts. Jaxson Dart will get the Chargers in his first career start, and it’s probably merciful to spare Russell that game.

28. Las Vegas Raiders: 38.77, -8.49 – Shouldn’t this team be better? Tre Tucker is a breakout star, Brock Bowers is a generational tight end, and Geno isn’t bad! And they have one of the best run defenses? Their offensive line is rough, and pass defense is more important than run defense, so I kind of get it, but most of the teams down here with the Raiders aren’t good at anything, and the Raiders are good at plenty.

29. Cincinnati Bengals: 37.88, -20.15 – Without Joe Burrow it’s just not going to be easy. The big crash here is mostly due to Super Bowl odds crashing along with Burrow.

30. New Orleans Saints: 33.4, -11.24 – The Saints are second to last in DVOA, though a plucky 27th in EPA. Maybe if they sign one more aging free agent to a silly contract, it will right the ship.

31. Miami Dolphins: 33.36, .29 – The Dolphins aren’t quite last in our efficiency staff, but there is no one PFF hates more, and I get it. Some teams just lack talent, but there’s talent in Miami. This is mostly about execution, and a quarterback who has taken too many shots to the head.

32. Tennessee Titans: 26.43, -3.58 – Cam Ward is off to a very rough start. His P/S in college was 15.9, which is perfectly fine, but the pressure has come fast and furious in the NFL, and he’s been terrible at getting the ball out. The Titans are in a painful rebuild, and they’re likely to contend with the Saints for last for most of the season.