Hunter Skoczylas provides his prediction and best bet for Sunday’s Week 4 matchup between the Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints.

The Bills are hosting the Saints at Highmark Stadium for a Week 4 matchup on Sunday afternoon. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Buffalo is favored by a whopping 15.5 points (opened at 16.5), and the game’s total is set at O/U 47.5 points.

Read below for a full breakdown and pick for Sunday’s Bills vs. Saints Week 4 matchup.

Bills vs. Saints prediction, pick

These two teams are polar opposites to start the new season, with the Bills sitting at 3-0 with an MVP quarterback, and the Saints sitting at 0-3 with arguably the worst starting quarterback in the league. Following their wild fourth-quarter comeback against the Ravens in Week 1, the Bills have won back-to-back games by 10+ points, and enter Week 4 sporting one of the league’s most efficient offenses. Plus, Buffalo played on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, giving it a rest advantage over New Orleans, too.

The Bills’ offense ranks first in offensive EPA/play, fourth in points per game and fifth in third-down conversion percentage through the first three weeks of the season, and doesn’t figure to slow down on Sunday at home against a struggling Saints’ defense. While the 15.5-point spread clearly indicates that these two teams are already very far apart, the game being in Buffalo plays a big role, too, considering the Bills have not lost a game at Highmark Stadium since Week 10 of the 2023 season, a game in which Allen had three total turnovers. Since that Week 10 game, Allen has totaled 66 touchdowns to just 16 total turnovers, a complete transformation of his game that now allows Buffalo to score points and win games in multiple ways.

Allen doesn’t turn the ball over, doesn’t take sacks, and he no longer has to do everything himself. James Cook has stepped up as Buffalo’s secondary option on offense and ranks second in the league in rushing yards (284) and first in rushing touchdowns among running backs (4). The Saints’ defense ranks 25th in both defensive EPA/play and points allowed per game, and will likely struggle whether the Bills air it out or pound the rock.

It may be a long day for the Saints’ defense, but there is a small glimmer of hope offensively, even if they rank 25th in offensive EPA/play and 29th in points per game. The Bills’ defense has faced some poor offenses in the past two weeks, but still ranks 22nd in defensive EPA/play and 28th in rushing EPA. Alvin Kamara has averaged just 2.5 yards per carry this season, thanks to the Saints’ offensive line ranking 31st in run block win rate, but Buffalo certainly has a history of struggling when it comes to run defense. Spencer Rattler has a 4:1 TD to INT ratio through the first three games, but averages just 5.4 yards per attempt, which is not great news when the Saints are likely going to be playing from behind for the majority of the game.

Bills vs. Saints pick, best bet

The Bills have scored 30+ points in all three games this season, and the Seahawks just dropped 44 points on the Saints in Week 3. Buffalo scored 30+ in all but one home game last season and has averaged 32.8 points per game at home since the 2023 season, and should run away with this game early enough that Josh Allen likely sits a good chunk of the fourth quarter. If you like the massive 15.5-point spread enough, I’d lean toward Buffalo, but the risk of fourth-quarter garbage points is certainly there.

Either way, 81% of the handle and 72% of the bets on DraftKings Sportsbook have been placed on Bills -15.5, so I wouldn’t blame you for riding with the public. The number is too high for me, and there’s no reason to think the Bills won’t continue their offensive dominance against another struggling squad.

Best Bet: BUF Bills Over 29.5 Points (-130)