Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 4’s game between the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Chargers.
MetLife will host a stark clash on Sunday: the unbeaten Chargers chasing their first 4–0 start since 2002, and the winless Giants desperate to avoid 0–4. The backdrop is sharp: Los Angeles rolls in off three divisional wins, Justin Herbert thriving, and a rookie back breaking out. Across the field, New York turns the page with first-round rookie Jaxson Dart making his debut start, asked to ignite an offense stuck at 17 points per game. The stage is a classic cross-conference test—West Coast strength against East Coast upheaval. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 4’s Thursday Night Football game between the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Chargers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Justin Herbert has started sharp, throwing for 860 yards with six touchdowns and one interception at 9.0 adjusted yards per attempt. He’s completing 66.7% of passes and owns a 121.0 passer rating when clean, ranking among the league’s top tier in efficiency. The distribution is layered: Keenan Allen has 19 catches for 194 yards and three scores, Quentin Johnston is producing 79.7 yards per game with three touchdowns, and rookie Ladd McConkey provides intermediate precision. Omarion Hampton filled in for Najee Harris last week with 19 carries for 129 scrimmage yards, and his physical downhill style gives Los Angeles the ability to toggle to the run. New York is allowing 5.2 yards per carry and 153.3 rushing yards per game, a bottom-three rush defense that has already yielded 1.7 rushing touchdowns per contest.
Defensively, Los Angeles has been among the league’s most balanced units. They allow 276.7 yards per game, eighth overall, with 182.0 through the air and 94.7 on the ground. They’ve surrendered just four touchdowns all year—two by pass, two by run—and stand first in red-zone defense at 25.0%. Derwin James headlines a versatile secondary with 12 tackles, four tackles for loss, and a sack last week, while the front has generated steady pressure without breaking structure. Third-down execution is elite: the Chargers’ offense ranks third in conversion rate at 46.3%, while the defense has held opponents to 14.0 first downs per game.
The Giants lean on talent but lack rhythm. Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart makes his first start behind an offense that ranks 31st on third down (27.5%) and 31st in red-zone touchdowns (20.0%). Malik Nabers has flashed at 83.7 yards per game with two scores, and rookie back Cam Skattebo is coming off 121 scrimmage yards against Kansas City. The structure, though, falters: 252.0 pass yards and 5.7 yards per play allowed defensively, with just one takeaway across three games. Brian Burns provides edge pressure, but when opponents run downhill, the Giants’ front buckles.
Chargers vs. Giants pick, best bet
Los Angeles is seventh in overall team rank, built on efficiency that travels. The Chargers sit top ten in both passing yards per game at 270 and scoring defense at 16.7 points allowed, a rare balance that stabilizes their weekly floor. They’ve forced three takeaways, surrendered only four total touchdowns, and hold opponents to 5.1 yards per play. Red-zone defense is the league’s best at 25%, and their offense converts 46% on third down. New York counters from twenty-ninth overall, weighed down by bottom-three ranks in run defense at 153.3 yards per game allowed and pass defense at 252. Their turnover margin is −2, with just a single takeaway through three weeks. Historical context sharpens the edges: the Giants have lost 14 of 15, covered only once this season, and are 1–9 in their last ten at home. The Chargers, meanwhile, are 3–0 ATS, extending a six-game ATS streak against losing teams. Travel and an early East Coast kickoff bring mild concerns, but leverage stats on yards per play, red zone, and third down all point one way.
The difference-maker is Omarion Hampton. Elevated into lead duties after Najee Harris’s Achilles tear, he delivered 19 carries and 129 scrimmage yards last week, showing vision and burst against Denver’s top-12 rush defense. Now he faces a Giants front bleeding over eight rushing first downs per game and 5.2 yards per carry. The structural bind is sharp: if safeties sink to double Quentin Johnston, Hampton gets light boxes and downhill lanes. If New York compresses to clog him, Herbert exploits space with Keenan Allen’s option routes and Ladd McConkey’s crossers, extending drives and stacking red-zone chances. Either choice creates efficiency chains that tilt time of possession and grind out a cover.
Final score: Chargers 27, Giants 17. Los Angeles should methodically control the game with balanced offense and red-zone efficiency, while New York leans on a rookie quarterback making his first start. Justin Herbert’s rhythm passing against a secondary allowing 252 yards per game should generate early chunk plays, stretching the Giants into coverage binds. That stress opens Omarion Hampton into a 20-carry workload, where sustained drives bleed clock and chip at a vulnerable front. Jaxson Dart may flash with Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo in spurts, but stalled third downs and a 20% red-zone conversion rate limit scoring output. By the second half, the Chargers’ defensive rotations dictate pace, squeezing New York into long fields and sealing a two-score result.
Best bet: Chargers -6 (-110) at Giants
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For a prop lean, Omarion Hampton’s rushing ladder at 80+ yards for +130 deserves attention. New York is surrendering 153.3 rushing yards per game, 5.2 yards per carry, and more than eight rushing first downs weekly. Hampton just logged 19 carries and 129 scrimmage yards in his expanded role, and positive script should feed him 18–20 touches again. The Giants’ defense has already conceded five rushing touchdowns, and their front has been mauled in consecutive weeks. With Justin Herbert forcing two-high shells, Hampton should see light boxes and carve a path past 80 yards at plus money.
Best prop lean: Omarion Hampton 80+ rushing yards (+130)
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