Sean Barnard breaks down the outlook and a pick for the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4 of the NFL season.

Plenty of eyes will be on Tampa Bay this week as the Buccaneers host the Philadelphia Eagles in a Week 4 matchup. Both these teams enter with a 3-0 record and look like legitimate threats in the NFC. Tampa Bay sent this Philadelphia team home in the 2023 playoffs before the franchise was able to rebound for their Super Bowl victory last season. The slate has since been wiped clean, and both teams now buckle up for an intriguing measuring-stick matchup in the early stages of this NFL season.

Looking at the odds, the Eagles enter as 3.5-point favorites and hold -185 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Buccaneers hold +154 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 44.5.

Get ready for this Week 4 matchup with an Buccaneers vs. Eagles prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Buccaneers vs. Eagles prediction, preview

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are defending their Super Bowl title and have gotten off to a 3-0 start, but it has not looked as pretty as the raw record indicates. Philadelphia has picked up its three victories by just 14 combined points in games that came against the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Rams.

Philadelphia ranks eighth in the NFL in scoring with 25.7 points per game, but just 27th in total yards accumulated. They have notably limited Jalen Hurts’ passing opportunities, with him throwing for just 152 yards against the Cowboys and 101 against the Chiefs. This finally changed in the second half of last week’s matchup with the Rams after Philadelphia fell behind 19-7 at halftime. Hurts threw for 209 passing yards and three touchdowns in the second half alone to lead a comeback victory, with the offense finally reaching its full form. Whether this is a trend of things to come or an adjustment out of necessity is to be determined. The Eagles rank 30th in pass attempts, 29th in passing yards, and 24th in passing touchdowns so far this year.

Saquon Barkley has also struggled to replicate his record-setting season last year to this point. Through three weeks, he has rushed for 194 yards and two touchdowns. These are still great totals for your average running back, but a far cry from the 2,000 yards he eclipsed last year.

Defensively, Philadelphia has allowed 21.0 points per game, which ranks 15th in the NFL. They have had more trouble stopping the run, ranking 24th in rushing yards allowed and 27th in net yards per rush attempt. The Eagles have three sacks and four turnovers forced thus far.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers also have not been able to deliver a true knockout blow en route to their perfect record. They defeated the Atlanta Falcons 23-20 in the season opener, the Houston Texans 20-19 in Week 2, and the New York Jets 29-27 last week.

Tampa Bay leans on high-powered offense as an identity, but the production has not quite matched this yet this year. They are producing 24.0 points per game, which ranks 12th in the NFL, and rank 22nd in passing yards. Injuries have limited the explosiveness, which will continue to be the case this week. Mike Evans will miss this matchup due to a hamstring injury while Chris Godwin is listed as questionable with an ankle issue. Baker Mayfield has also been on the injury report all week and will officially hold a questionable tag due to a bicep injury, but the expectation is that he will play. Mayfield has thrown for 615 passing yards and six touchdowns this season without recording an interception.

Bucky Irving has impressed to start the year and taken a step forward in his production. The second-year back has rushed for 174 yards thus far while adding 91 receiving yards and a touchdown through the air. Rachaad White also continues to mix into the rushing attack with 17 carries for 91 yards and the lone rushing score for the Buccaneers this season.

Defensively, opponents are putting up 22.0 points per game against Tampa Bay, which ranks 17th in the NFL. They rank 20th in passing yards allowed and 11th in passing touchdowns conceded, but have done a nice job limiting the damage against the run. The Buccaneers have eight sacks and four turnovers forced on the season.

Buccaneers vs. Eagles pick, best bet

This is a battle of two NFC heavyweights who are still looking to find their full stride this season. My lean is towards the Buccaneers covering the +3.5 spread with Tampa Bay playing the Eagles well in recent years and looking dangerous to start this season. Tampa Bay is 4-1 against the spread in their last five matchups against the Eagles played in Tampa Bay, as well as 5-2 in their last seven games against the NFC straight up. But I am backing the over of 44.5 in this matchup and expecting both offenses to come to life.

It was as if a lightbulb went on across the Philadelphia sideline last week as Hurts leaned on his collection of talents around him headlined by A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and aired the ball out at a more regular rate. Jalen Hurts had some pointed comments about the play calls being focused on playing not to lose, and some changes should be expected. Airing out the ball at a more regular rate will open up the running lanes for Saquon Barkley, so expect this to be the game plan from the Eagles’ perspective. Tampa Bay has been far more effective at stopping the run, and the Eagles will be cognizant of this.

Tampa Bay is at its best when scoring at a high rate and leaning on this as its source of success. The Eagles’ defense is respectable, but they are still figuring out some things in the secondary and have not created the expected level of pass rush consistently. Even with the Buccaneers banged up, Emeka Egbuka is completely capable of being the primary weapon and optimism seems to be increasing that Chris Godwin can give it a go.

The over has cashed in four of the last six Eagles’ games. Tampa Bay has hit the over in six of its last nine games at home, including its lone home game this season. The regular season matchup between these two teams finished 33-16 last year in the Buccaneers’ favor, and Tampa Bay put up 32 points against the Eagles in the 2023 postseason matchup. Expect both these teams to have success getting in the end zone and for the points to be frequent in this matchup as it eclipses the 44.5-point game total.

Best bet: Over 44.5 Points (-105)