The Dallas Cowboys find themselves massive underdogs heading into their Sunday night matchup against the Green Bay Packers. Such was the case before Micah Parsons was traded and such is even more so the case after the disastrous affair last week in Chicago.
What was once seen as a measuring stick or even revenge game is now a game Dallas just wants to get through without embarrassment. The Cowboys have to survive the losses of CeeDee Lamb, Tyler Booker and Cooper Beebe on Sunday. All three are expected to be out multiple weeks and all three serve critical roles on offense.
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The Cowboys pass defense simply has to show some signs of improvement. They’re ranked 31st in the NFL in EPA/dropback and their propensity for coverage breakdowns make them a target for deep shots downfield. It just so happens the Green Bay offense ranks No. 1 in intermediate passing and No. 5 in deep passing EPA. It’s not a good matchup for Dallas.
Cowboys must get pressure
Under Matt Eberflus the Cowboys defense is not a unit that blitzes because he prioritizes defenders in coverage. This strategy keeps windows small and keep plays in front of the defense. In theory, of course. The Cowboys haven’t been able to execute the bend-but-don’t break style Eberflus runs, so it seems like a great time to pivot to something unexpected.
The Packers are good against the blitz and good against no blitz, ranking top five in both EPA categories in 2025. The Cowboys’ defense is bottom five in both categories in case anyone is wondering. It signals Dallas hasn’t been able to get home and apply pressure even when they do blitz.
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If they could get pressure on Jordan Love they’ll see success. Based on numbers from Sumer Sports the Packers are 27th in the NFL when pressured. Zone blitzes, various stunts and twists might be the key to getting pressure without committing completely.
Cowboys must neutralize pressure
The Cowboys offense is 26th in pressure percentage allowed and most of that has been coming from the edges. Both offensive tackles have been horrendous in pass protection and it’s a disease that might be spreading to the interior. With Beebe and Booker both out, the Cowboys have backups at two of the three interior spots. It’s something a top five pressure producing defense like the Packers has to be salivating at.
A steady running game will help Dallas, as will constant chip blocks in Parsons’ direction, but at the end of the day the offensive line has to hold up in pass protection for the Cowboys to have a shot at keeping pace on the scoreboard.
Lean on 12 personnel
Even though the Cowboys are just 27th in 12 personnel usage, they rank fourth in 12 personnel EPA. Multiple tight ends are working for them this season and a lot of that has to do with Brevyn Spann-Ford’s ability to block. With Lamb ruled out, the Cowboys have the perfect opportunity to lean on their TE group.
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Green Bay’s defense ranks No. 1 in deep pass EPA meaning the Cowboys might want to work on the underneath game and intermediate passes. This week might be the perfect time to use their TEs and Hunter Luepke to an unnatural degree.
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This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: Cowboys vs Packers Week 4 strategic keys to victory