Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 4’s game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Chicago Bears.

Allegiant hums and the margins are thin, but the matchup is clear: one team with rising efficiency against another searching for balance after two straight losses. The Chicago Bears arrive off a 31–14 surge, and quarterback Caleb Williams just banked 298 yards and four touchdowns with zero sacks, pushing his early ledger to 701 yards, seven scores, and one interception on 63.4% completions. That clean pocket matters against a front that still centers around chaos creation. The Las Vegas Raiders return home with a 1–2 mark and an uneven profile: 17.7 points per game, only 72.3 rushing yards per game, and twelve sacks allowed through three weeks as quarterback Geno Smith navigates 831 yards with four touchdowns and four picks. The market’s whisper says coin-flip; the tape and data say possession football, red-zone selectivity, and total volatility tethered to explosive plays rather than sustained drives. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 4’s game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Chicago Bears.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The structural edges tilt toward a compressed scoring script. Chicago’s offense sits at 25.3 points per game, yet the run game remains inefficient at 113.3 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry for D’Andre Swift, which drags early-down success and sets up longer thirds unless Ben Johnson buys Williams time with play-action, movement, and the quick game. Las Vegas counters with a defense that has seven sacks and has generally forced teams to earn yards, even after a 41–24 unraveling in Washington that was as much about special teams breakdowns and field position as sustained defensive failure. Williams has been smart with the football—just the one interception on ninety-three attempts—so live-ball giveaways that spike an Over are less likely, especially in a dome where cadence and communication should be clean.

The Raiders’ offense presses a different set of levers. Smith is sitting at 277.0 passing yards per game, yet the ground attack hasn’t provided the ballast to stay on schedule: Ashton Jeanty has 144 rushing yards on 47 attempts, just 3.1 per carry, and he was contacted at or behind the line on eleven of seventeen rushes last week. That lack of downhill efficiency compresses the playbook and invites simulated pressure on passing downs. It’s why chunk production has concentrated through the air with Tre Tucker erupting for eight grabs, 145 yards, and three touchdowns in Washington, and why high-leverage targets remain essential for Brock Bowers. The Bears, for their part, just forced four takeaways against Dallas and have five sacks through three games; not a blistering rush, but opportunistic on third down and inside the twenty.

At receiver, the star turns are balanced by matchups that can be managed. Rome Odunze already has sixteen receptions for 227 yards and four touchdowns and pairs cleanly with DJ Moore and Cole Kmet in Chicago’s layered route tree, but Las Vegas still fields Maxx Crosby, and he is the tide that changes down-and-distance math. Keep Crosby from wrecking the edges and Williams can keep rhythm with rhythm throws and designed movement; lose too many snaps to Crosby’s counters and the Bears will be punting from plus territory. On the other side, Chicago’s secondary just played with edge and eyes—three interceptions and two sacks against the Cowboys—and when the Bears have held up on early downs, they’ve protected a shaky fourth-quarter point differential with smarter spacing underneath.

Bears vs. Raiders pick, best bet

Situational splits reinforce a modest total environment. The Raiders have gone Under in seven of their last nine and average 44.8 combined points in their games, three to four points under the posted totals range this week. Chicago’s games have averaged 46.8 combined, yet the Week Two 52-point avalanche in Detroit inflates that number; remove the outlier and the Bears skew closer to a mid-forties composite that fits their current run-game profile. Red-zone execution also acts as a brake: Chicago’s scoring pop has leaned on explosives to Odunze and gadget designs, while Las Vegas has too often traded red-zone chances for field goals, a theme that flattens totals unless defensive or special teams havoc appears.

The difference-maker is Maxx Crosby, edge rusher. He tilts protections, forces hot throws a beat early, and shrinks scramble lanes that rescued Williams in Weeks 1 and 2. If Crosby wins enough early downs, the Bears will face longer third-and-sevens rather than third-and-threes, and that changes Ben Johnson’s sequencing inside the forty. The counter is tempo and variety—jet action to widen the front, quicks to Kmet, RPO slants to Moore, and the occasional shot to Odunze to punish squat corners—but the more Chicago is compelled to work the flats and the sticks, the more clock bleeds and total equity drifts Under.

The game script tightens around sustained drives and selective aggression. Las Vegas will test Chicago’s linebackers with crossers to Bowers and spacing routes to Jakobi Meyers, then try to reclaim efficiency with Jeanty into lighter boxes; Chicago will hunt early explosives, then lean on possession routes once the Raiders adjust coverage. Hidden yards—punting, coverage units, and a cleaner operation after last week’s Raiders special-teams gaffes—loom large. So does turnover luck: Smith has four interceptions already, Williams only one, and that ball security gap, in aggregate, favors the Under more than either side.

Let’s lock in u47.5 as the primary position; the matchup, pace, and red-zone tendencies all press downward on total outcomes. Final score projection: Raiders 23, Bears 20.

Best bet: Raiders vs. Bears u47.5 total points (+100)

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For a prop, leaning toward a clean game from quarterback Caleb Williams: under 0.5 interceptions. His interception rate sits at 1.1% with just one pick on 93 attempts, and the ball came out on time behind a protection plan that yielded 0 sacks last week. That dovetails with a Raiders secondary generating only one interception through three games. Correlated angle: running back Ashton Jeanty under 13.5 receiving yards, with just one receiving yards on five catches across three weeks and a route tree that lives at or behind the line of scrimmage while protection issues force chips and keeps in.

Best prop lean: Caleb Williams u1.5 interceptions (-125)

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