Splash plays at Denver to see the Over 43.5 prevail.

If it’s Monday, it’s football, and our tipster Andrew Cunneen has some more fantastic NFL pointers.

We’re touching down at two great stadia as a new week gets underway, starting off in Miami before making the long journey to Denver, with contrasting expectations in terms of the points haul…

Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
When: 12.15am, Tuesday 30th September 2025 (UK)
TV: DAZN (UK)

Jets to Win

I understand that the Dolphins are favoured, but even before we get into specifics, it’s worth remembering that this is a divisional game. The two sides are in the same timezone, and it is only a three-hour flight between New York and Miami – that’s a ten-minute jog in NFL terms, particularly on a long week.

Now, to be more specific: the Dolphins are in freefall, Mike McDaniel isn’t making sense in press conferences anymore, Tua is suggesting that Cam Newton should play football before he criticises – despite Newton’s 2012 season being one of the best ever – and Justin Fields is back.

So while one organisation is clearly about to play the last couple of games before wholesale changes, the other is running the ball relatively well, still has a passable defence and is welcoming back their starting quarterback.

If vibes turned into points, I’d be taking New York to win this. As talent comes into play? I’ll still take New York.

Under 44.5 Points

Everything these two teams do is short and takes too long to process. Fields needs four seconds to get through his progressions before he either takes off or finds Garrett Wilson on a comeback route, while Tua takes roughly the same amount of time to remember he’s a quarterback at all, and then looks immediately for his checkdown in De’Von Achane.

The splash plays aren’t there anymore, particularly as Tyreek Hill is both disillusioned and going to be covered by Sauce Gardner. Expect this to be low and slow.

Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
When: 1.15am, Tuesday 30th September 2025 (UK)
TV: DAZN (UK)

Broncos to win

The doom and gloom post-Joe Burrow’s injury is quite something. Admittedly it’s a very tough situation for Browning to walk into – facing the league’s two best defences in consecutive weeks – but this is the reality.

So, we have the best front versus the worst offensive line, and a quarterback whose confidence is shattered.

On the other side, you’ve got a Sean Payton offensive playbook that needs to be dialed back in order for his quarterback to execute in rhythm. Given the Bengals cannot stop the run, this feels like a lot of that pressure will fall into the hands of JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey.

Is it a prerequisite to have a two-initial first name to play tailback for the Broncos?

Over 43.5 Points

Payton has one thing going for him, namely design. Last week, he pulled out fake screens and flea flickers. They resulted in a touchdown and a missed touchdown respectively – but that was against a disciplined back seven led by a defensive genius.

This week, the splash plays will work. And I also expect a few points to be landing in Denver’s back pocket due to turnovers. If last week is anything to go by, you can probably pencil in a defensive score on top of everything else, so I feel better backing the over for this one.

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