Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 4’s game between the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets.

For the first game in our double-header, we head to Hard Rock under the lights, ocean air leaning heavy, and two desperate teams staring at the same cliff. The Jets stumble south with narrow losses and noise. The Dolphins return home with pride scuffed and patience tested. Nine straight Miami home wins over New York sit like history’s drumbeat. Kickoff lands at 7:15 p.m. in humid September, with wind light and nerves loud. The number floats around Miami -2.5 with a mid-40s total, thin and telling. One locker room exhales tonight; the other hears October close in. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 4’s game between the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Tua Tagovailoa must live in rhythm, motion, and quick-game timing. Miami ranks first on third-down conversion rate and fourth in red-zone TD rate. That sustains drives even when explosive plays stall. Tyreek Hill dictates leverage before the snap and steals cushion after it. Jaylen Waddle punishes off-coverage when Hill pulls safety help. De’Von Achane is the accelerant. Miami averages 5.4 yards per carry and found 130 rushing yards in Buffalo. The Jets’ pressure rate sits near the bottom, around 13.1%, which grants clean pockets. When Miami’s timing holds, spacing wins, and yards arrive in elegant chunks.

New York counters with ground gravity and quarterback legs. Justin Fields adds designed-run stress and off-script torque if cleared to start. Breece Hall still threatens explosives behind gap doubles and toss crack. New York ranks tenth in rushing yards per game at 127.0. Garrett Wilson is the chain mover and red-zone answer, already at twenty-one receptions and two touchdowns. Miami’s defense has bled at 32.3 points per game and remains turnover-starved. Missed tackles and late down lapses turned long fields into short ones. If that pattern repeats, New York can drag tempo where it wants and own possession.

There’s counterweight in the coverage geometry. Both defenses have squeezed vertical windows and forced shallow targets. Miami has allowed the league’s lowest average depth of target around 5.3 yards. New York sits near the fifth-lowest around 6.4 yards. That funnels completions underneath and dares offenses to stack first downs. It also shapes prop value and total texture. The Jets haven’t generated takeaways either, and their run defense has leaked at 133 rushing yards per game. That marries poorly with Miami’s efficiency when Mike McDaniel leans into under-center crease runs and motion.

Jets vs. Dolphins pick, best bet

The total has gone over in seven straight Miami home games. These teams have cleared similar mid-forties totals in recent South Florida meetings. Jets games have gone over in eight of ten, with fourth-quarter swings juicing variance. Special teams chaos also looms; last week included a blocked kick returned for six and late field-goal drama. Weather reads hot and humid with light winds, a modest edge for the faster roster and late tackling fatigue. Miami’s nine straight home wins over the Jets came by double digits on average, outpacing the current short spread.

I respect the under case. Divisional familiarity compresses explosives, and both defenses sit on top of routes. Miami’s primetime ATS record has sagged under bright lights. The Jets can slow possessions with Hall and quarterback keeps. If red-zone trips convert to field goals, the ceiling shrinks. Yet the turnover void on both sides invites short fields. Miami’s defense remains last in defensive EPA and points allowed per game. New York has allowed at least twenty-nine in every outing. One busted fit or return miscue can detonate the math.

The trench pivots decide this. Miami’s interior must handle Quinnen Williams, especially on third-and-medium. If he wins early, Miami’s timing collapses. The Jets tackles must survive Miami’s first-step juice. Jaelan Phillips leads in quarterback hurries and can flip drives with one long-arm win. Field position will swing on hidden yards; Miami’s punt return average sits first, and that matters when drives stall near midfield.

Final score prediction: Dolphins 27, Jets 23. In a game due for under-leaning slop, we’re taking the over.

Best bet: Jets vs. Dolphins o45.5 total points (-105)

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For a prop, ride De’Von Achane over 54.5 rushing yards at DraftKings (-115), playable to 64.5. New York’s front has yielded chunk gains and light boxes when coverage safeties widen. Miami’s 5.4 yards per carry signals line displacement and read-key manipulation. Achane has cleared 55 rushing yards in three of four recent home games, including last week’s 62 on twelve totes. He doesn’t need twenty carries to cash; ten to fourteen efficient attempts can do it. Miami’s first in third-down rate and fourth in red-zone scoring, which extends snaps and protects late-game volume. If Miami leads, the finishing script is Achane between the tackles with bend-and-burst conviction. in.

Best prop lean: De’Von Achane o54.5 rushing yards (-115)

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