Seattle remains No. 1 in DVOA this week after a 23-20 victory over Arizona that was larger than the final score indicates. (Seattle gained 6.0 yards per play compared to 4.0 yards per play for the Cardinals.) Detroit moves up to No. 2 with a big win over Cleveland. The Los Angeles Rams are now third, moving past the Indianapolis Colts who are fourth after losing to the Rams. The Washington Commanders are a surprising fifth, dropping two spots after a 37-24 loss to Atlanta.

Big improvements this week include the Kansas City Chiefs, up five spots to No. 8; the Denver Broncos, up five spots to No. 9; and the Pittsburgh Steelers, up nine spots to No. 13.

This is the first week where we have introduced opponent adjustments into the DVOA formula. They are currently at 40%. The new opponent adjustments are a big reason why one of the two remaining undefeated teams is only sixth in DVOA, but they actually boost the other remaining undefeated team even though it is only 12th in DVOA.

The Buffalo Bills are 4-0 but have played the easiest schedule in the league so far: No. 14 Baltimore, No. 23 New York Jets, No. 25 Miami, and No. 31 New Orleans. However, it’s not like things are going to get harder for the Bills. They have the 28th-ranked remaining schedule, as their average remaining opponent is currently at -7.5% DVOA. This is a big reason why our playoff odds report has the Bills as prohibitive favorites to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LX (43%) and win the whole thing (25%).

You’re probably very surprised to see the Philadelphia Eagles ranked only 12th at 4-0. A big reason for this is that blocked field goals and punts are not included in special teams DVOA. They are what we call “non-predictive plays,” in that they take skill and planning but aren’t necessarily predictive of future performance.

When it comes to offense and defense alone, the Eagles simply have not been as good as they were last year. Philadelphia is currently 17th in offensive DVOA and 14th in defensive DVOA despite getting a bump upwards for playing one of the top schedules so far this year. The Eagles are the seventh-lowest 4-0 team in DVOA history (since 1978) and are one of only two teams in NFL history to win their first four games despite being outgained in yardage in all four games. The other team was the 2012 Arizona Cardinals, who won only one more game all season! I have a feeling the Eagles are better than that. As I said on the Schatz and Tanier podcast this week, the Eagles’ current play is unsustainable but they get a lot of benefit of the doubt that they’re going to get better because of how well this team has been built and the fact that they are the defending champions.

And it’s not such a bad thing to have a low DVOA when you’re 4-0, because you’re 4-0. You’ll notice that five different teams on this list of the worst 4-0 teams made it to the Super Bowl.

Worst 4-0 Teams by DVOA, 1978-2025

Year
Team
W-L
DVOA
Rk
Final Result

2003
CAR
4-0
-0.5%
14
11-5, lost SB

1983
DAL
4-0
1.5%
13
12-4, lost WC

2012
ARI
4-0
2.3%
13
5-11

2015
CAR
4-0
3.6%
14
15-1, lost SB

1979
CLE1
4-0
4.9%
11
9-7

1982
WAS
4-0
5.4%
12
8-1, won SB

2025
PHI
4-0
7.2%
12
—

2000
MIN
4-0
8.3%
12
11-5, lost CCG

2013
NE
4-0
11.1%
8
12-4, lost CCG

2006
IND
4-0
11.2%
10
12-4, won SB

2005
TB
4-0
11.5%
11
11-5, lost WC

2011
DET
4-0
12.1%
10
10-6, lost WC

1988
CIN
4-0
12.1%
7
12-4, lost SB

Here’s another table with the Eagles on it, showing every team in NFL history with a negative yardage differential despite a 4-0 start. Some of the teams do repeat. Thanks to Bryan Knowles for putting this together.

4-0 with Negative Yardage Differential, 1932-2025

Team
Year
YdF
YdA
YdDif
Final Result

ARI
2012
1,084
1,428
-344
5-11

PHI
2025
1,006
1,333
-327
—

SEA
2020
1,665
1,907
-242
12-4, lost WC

CAR
2003
1,170
1,339
-169
11-5, lost SB

KC
2018
1,641
1,807
-166
12-4, lost CCG

TEN
2020
1,509
1,637
-128
11-5, lost WC

DAL
1983
1,266
1,392
-126
12-4, lost WC

STL
1995
1,166
1,281
-115
7-9

MIN
1998
1,357
1,460
-103
15-1, lost CCG

CAR
2015
1,288
1,356
-68
15-1, lost SB

MIN
2016
1,162
1,224
-62
8-8

CHI
1991
1,223
1,271
-48
11-5, lost WC

MIN
2024
1,363
1,397
-34
14-3, lost WC

BUF
1988
1,281
1,306
-25
12-4, lost CCG

GB
1965
1,176
1,194
-18
10-3-1, won NFL

A couple of other teams rank among the “worst ever DVOA” teams through four games in different categories. I’ll be writing about this some more in an ESPN piece later this week, but to highlight:

The New York Giants rank third among the worst run defenses by DVOA through four games. The only teams that were worse came in the 1970’s: the 1979 Saints and the 1978 Cardinals. The Giants are currently allowing 6.1 yards per carry.
The Dallas Cowboys rank eighth among the worst pass defenses by DVOA through four games. Teams that were worse include the 2019 Dolphins and the 2023 Broncos. The Cowboys are currently allowing 8.5 net yards per pass.
The Cincinnati Bengals rank fourth among the worst 2-2 teams by DVOA.

* * * * *

There’s a change this week to how I’m handling kickoff returns in the DVOA special teams formula. Since the introduction of the dynamic kickoff last season, I had treated touchbacks that bounced first in the landing zone (and went out to the 20 instead of the 35) as if they were “returnable” kickoffs. Thus, the kick return team was penalized for not returning these kickoffs, as I felt that the returner had a choice to take the touchback or run the kick out to try to get past the 20.

I’ve talked to a couple of NFL special teams coaches and we’re definitely having a problem now that 2025 has introduced the “knuckleball kick” that bounces in the landing zone and is very difficult to return. These coaches suggested that on these touchbacks that bounce to the landing zone and then into the end zone, there’s really nothing that the returner can do and thus the returner should not be penalized with negative value. So all touchbacks now have no return value. The next step is going to need to be figuring out a better way to handle the knuckleball kicks that are returned. I may need to introduce opponent adjustments into special teams for the first time, because there’s a big difference now between a regular kickoff that is caught at the 2 and a knuckleball kick that is caught at the 2 when it comes to the expectation for how long an average return will be. The Eagles are very low in kick return value right now, for example, because of the difficulty of returning kickoffs by Joshua Karty of the Rams in Week 3. It’s mostly just that one game and that one kicker.

* * * * *

These are the FTN DVOA and DAVE ratings through three weeks of 2025. Our Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.) Opponent adjustments are currently at 40% of their final strength.

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with current DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. DAVE is currently 59% preseason forecast for offense and 86% preseason forecast for defense and special teams.

Note that the projection part of the DAVE ratings has been updated to account for injuries to Malik Nabers, Tyreek Hill and several Baltimore defensive players. (It had already been updated to account for injuries to Nick Bosa and Joe Burrow.)

RK
TEAM
TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
TOTAL
DAVE
RK
W-L
OFF.
DVOA
OFF.
RK
DEF.
DVOA
DEF.
RK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RK

1
SEA
44.4%
1
9.1%
10
3-1
12.3%
6
-19.9%
1
12.2%
1

2
DET
38.0%
5
24.1%
1
3-1
20.7%
4
-12.8%
5
4.5%
7

3
LAR
35.9%
4
15.7%
4
3-1
24.5%
2
-8.7%
11
2.7%
14

4
IND
26.6%
2
0.1%
15
3-1
21.7%
3
-2.1%
18
2.8%
11

5
WAS
20.4%
3
13.2%
6
2-2
7.1%
11
-1.4%
19
11.9%
2

6
BUF
19.9%
8
22.4%
2
4-0
26.0%
1
2.2%
21
-3.9%
24

7
JAX
18.9%
10
4.0%
13
3-1
3.1%
15
-13.2%
3
2.6%
15

8
KC
18.8%
13
16.6%
3
2-2
11.6%
7
-6.1%
13
1.1%
19

9
DEN
16.6%
14
9.3%
9
2-2
7.9%
10
-9.1%
10
-0.3%
22

10
LAC
14.5%
7
5.2%
12
3-1
4.9%
14
-11.7%
7
-2.1%
23

11
GB
14.2%
6
10.8%
8
2-1-1
6.8%
12
-11.9%
6
-4.5%
25

12
PHI
7.2%
17
11.2%
7
4-0
1.3%
17
-5.7%
14
0.3%
21

13
PIT
5.9%
22
-0.3%
17
3-1
2.0%
16
-3.2%
17
0.7%
20

14
BAL
5.3%
12
14.6%
5
1-3
11.4%
8
10.7%
24
4.5%
8

15
SF
3.4%
9
6.5%
11
3-1
9.1%
9
-7.2%
12
-12.9%
30

16
ATL
2.6%
19
-4.1%
21
2-2
-2.6%
20
-13.1%
4
-7.9%
26

RK
TEAM
TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
TOTAL
DAVE
RK
W-L
OFF.
DVOA
OFF.
RK
DEF.
DVOA
DEF.
RK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RK

17
HOU
1.6%
25
0.0%
16
1-3
-6.5%
22
-5.4%
15
2.8%
13

18
TB
-3.8%
16
1.1%
14
3-1
-0.3%
18
-9.7%
9
-13.2%
31

19
ARI
-3.9%
15
-1.0%
19
2-2
-9.9%
24
-4.4%
16
1.5%
17

20
NE
-6.0%
26
-3.8%
20
2-2
6.7%
13
15.7%
28
3.0%
10

21
MIN
-6.7%
11
-4.5%
23
2-2
-22.3%
29
-9.8%
8
5.8%
6

22
DAL
-8.8%
23
-0.6%
18
1-2-1
15.1%
5
29.7%
32
5.9%
5

23
NYJ
-9.8%
24
-11.5%
26
0-4
-4.6%
21
12.1%
25
6.9%
3

24
CHI
-15.5%
20
-4.5%
22
2-2
-10.2%
25
7.3%
23
2.0%
16

25
MIA
-20.9%
28
-10.8%
25
1-3
-2.3%
19
25.0%
31
6.4%
4

26
LV
-21.2%
30
-7.6%
24
1-3
-12.8%
26
-0.2%
20
-8.6%
28

27
CLE
-22.2%
18
-17.2%
29
1-3
-27.5%
31
-16.8%
2
-11.5%
29

28
NYG
-24.0%
29
-15.3%
27
1-3
-16.1%
27
12.3%
26
4.3%
9

29
CAR
-28.2%
21
-24.0%
31
1-3
-17.3%
28
2.8%
22
-8.1%
27

30
CIN
-36.5%
27
-15.3%
28
2-2
-22.5%
30
15.5%
27
1.5%
18

31
NO
-41.2%
31
-17.9%
30
0-4
-9.0%
23
18.6%
30
-13.6%
32

32
TEN
-46.6%
32
-27.3%
32
0-4
-32.5%
32
16.9%
29
2.8%
12