The hype, as usual these days, got out of control.

Last year’s college quarterback class was widely considered less talented than this year’s, which has been touted as special. But in the desperate search to identify the next Joe Burrow or Cam Ward, many of us tripped over ourselves to get ahead of the curve.

This “special” crop, one month in, has looked anything but.

Of course, if we learned anything from last season, when Ohio State rose from the ashes after Thanksgiving and proved everyone wrong by winning the national title, it’s not to overreact too much. But thus far, there’s been a whole lot of pumping of the brakes on the QB hype train. While coaches and NFL scouts have concerns about some prospects, others have shined. Here’s what they have to say with September in the books.

Arch Manning, Texas

No. 1 in Dane Brugler’s summer positional rankings | No. 1 overall in Dane Brugler’s 2026 NFL mock draft 

The skepticism started in Week 1 when the Next Manning struggled (expectedly so) at Ohio State behind a rebuilt offensive line. A few weeks later, against a much weaker opponent and while playing on friendly turf in Austin, Manning was booed by fans after going 11 for 25 for 114 yards against UTEP. Manning did look better the following week against Sam Houston, and within the program, there still seems to be a lot of optimism about Archie’s grandson than outside it.

“He’s a terrific athlete, and he throws the deep ball as good as anybody I’ve ever been around,” one Texas program source told me, who added that he expects Manning will bounce back this season as he settles in.

“He was gripping the ball a little tightly,” added a second Texas program source. Settling Manning down — as well as a host of inexperienced starters on offense that includes breaking in four guys on the O-line — would go a long way toward Texas looking like the team that came into this season with such lofty expectations. (Texas ranks No. 15 in the SEC in red zone TD percentage and No. 12 in third-down offense.)

One NFL scouting director told The Athletic that Manning’s film from the Ohio State game was “ugly,” adding that he doesn’t know if the former five-star recruit has the “yips,” but that there is real concern about him within the scouting world.

“He’s talented, but he needs to get rid of what’s going on with him,” he said. “I don’t know if it’s all mental, but I do know he’s dealing with a level of pressure that nobody else we’re talking about is dealing with.

“We just need to see a lot more of him before anybody can make a determination about him. He just really hasn’t played a lot. It’s OK to be a little bit developmental and still have high upside. You just gotta let him develop.”

Despite sky-high pressure, Manning and his struggles are still more understandable than those of a few other high-profile, multiyear starters.

Cade Klubnik, Clemson

No. 6 in Brugler’s summer positional rankings

Klubnik is off to the most disappointing start of any of the quarterbacks. He’s No. 16 in ACC passer rating. Clemson’s 1-3, and he’s thrown almost as many interceptions (three) against Power 4 competition as touchdowns (four).

“He looks really uncomfortable out there,” said a rival defensive coordinator. “He’s late so often. He looks like a first-time starter, not a guy with as much experience as he has.”

“If anybody’s pressing, he is,” said the NFL scouting director. “Something’s off with him, but I was less fired up about him than I think a lot of other guys were. I did see the twitch, the mobility, some arm talent, but he needed to clean up his accuracy and decision-making. He just hasn’t been able to play calm and poised.

“(Clemson) to me, they’re talented, but I don’t know what’s going on there. They’re not playing together.”

Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

No. 3 in Brugler’s summer positional rankings | No. 16 overall in Brugler’s 2026 mock 

Nussmeier got off to a nice start when he led the Tigers to a good road win over Klubnik at Clemson, completing 74 percent of his passes against a talented defense in a hostile environment. But the senior and his offense have really sputtered since.

LSU was 2-for-11 on third downs in a 24-19 loss at Ole Miss, where the Rebels had no concerns about the nonexistent LSU running game and often dropped eight into coverage. Nussmeier, known as a gunslinger-style QB, has made too many bad decisions for a very experienced quarterback. Head coach Brian Kelly has said Nussmeier had been battling a torso injury, but after the Ole Miss loss, Kelly backtracked, saying: “Look, all I can tell you is, he’s healthy.”

Nussmeier declined to answer any questions about his health.

“I like him, and so do a lot of scouts,” said the NFL scouting director. “I feel like there is a sense of overconfidence with him. I don’t know if he’s struggling because of their O-line (with four new starters) or if he’s just making bad decisions.”

“He doesn’t look right,” said another NFL scout, who was high on Nussmeier coming into this season, and says that he still is. “Something’s off with him. He’s just not firing the ball the way he used to.”

Whatever it is, something is clearly not right with the Tigers’ offense, which is second-to-last in the SEC in rushing and No. 12 in plays of 20-plus yards.

Drew Allar, Penn State

No. 5 in Brugler’s summer positional rankings | No. 5 overall in Brugler’s 2026 mock 

Allar continues to puzzle both Nittany Lion fans and opposing coaches. The 6-5, 235-pound Allar has a big arm and decent mobility. PSU staffers have raved about how bright he is and how he often gets them out of bad plays. Even in Penn State’s double-overtime loss to Oregon Saturday night, there were impressive moments, including a perfect deep ball for a touchdown.

But mostly, there are too many plays where he seems to be overthinking.  “Does he get stuck over-analyzing?” one rival coach wondered.

As a first-year starter, Allar had a sterling TD-to-INT ratio of 25-to-2. In 20 games since, it’s still an impressive 30-to-10, but this year’s yards per attempt is a red flag to some: just 6.4, and Penn State faced three weak opponents in its first three games.

“I don’t know if he’s so afraid to make mistakes,” said an NFL scout The Athletic spoke to a few days before the Oregon game. “You just want to see him cut it loose more.”

“He’s got tools, but as a player, I’m not fired up about him,” said the NFL scouting director. “The pictures have to be clear. He’s kind of robotic with his decision-making.”

“I wasn’t a believer in him at all. I didn’t get all the hype,” said a Big Ten assistant coach. “But when we played him, it was like, OK, he’s very gifted — he’s huge, and he has an absolute hose for an arm. I just don’t think he plays quarterback very well. He misses throws he shouldn’t, but then he hits some oh my God! throws. Offense looks hard with him, though.”

Drew Allar continues to puzzle fans and NFL scouts alike with his play. (Isaiah Vazquez / Getty Images)

LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

No. 2 in Brugler’s summer positional rankings | No. 2 overall in Brugler’s 2026 mock

Sellers was one of the breakout stars of the 2024 season and came into the year as a projected top-5 pick, according to some NFL draft analysts, but he has had a challenging first month. The 6-3, 240-pound dual-threat quarterback suffered a concussion in a Week 3 31-7 loss to Vanderbilt. Sellers returned a week later and played well, but couldn’t help the Gamecocks from falling again, 29-20 to Missouri.

It feels like Sellers carries more of the weight of his team’s success than any other top QB in the Power 4. Against Kentucky, he looked more like himself, rushing for 81 yards (he only had 17 rushing yards through the season’s first four games) and connected on 79 percent of his passes in a 35-13 rout.

It’s not all been bad, though, for others in this crop of QBs.

Dante Moore, Oregon

Moore has been even better than anyone outside of the Ducks’ facilities could’ve imagined. He’s completing 75 percent of his passes and has a 14-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. In the most hostile setting a young QB could face in college, against a talented Penn State defense in a White Out setting, Moore went 29 of 39 for 248 yards, three TDs and no picks. He also scrambled for 35 more yards, which was eye-opening for folks who have heard he wasn’t much of a runner.

“He was smooth as hell, and no panic,” said a defensive coordinator who faced Oregon this season. “He is pretty damn poised. He can throw the hell out of the ball. He wants to look high to low. He does have a big, powerful arm. On film, he throws some unbelievable deep balls. He’s the real deal.”

All the talk inside the Moore camp is that he’s in no rush to leave Oregon for the NFL. They’ve seen how the added seasoning benefitted Jayden Daniels, who flourished as a rookie last year. Moore won’t turn 21 until a month after the 2026 draft.

But the NFL scouting director thinks that, because the 2026 QB class isn’t looking as strong as many expected, scouts are going to push to ramp up their evaluations of Moore, just in case there’s a temptation to leave sooner than expected because of a new opportunity.

“I do think he’d benefit from more time,” said the scouting director. “We’ll see how he progresses throughout the rest of this year. Some plays, he saw the field real well. Some plays, he didn’t. He’s a smooth athlete with good arm talent. He runs well enough to extend plays, and there is something to him. He’s an awesome kid. Didn’t feel like he was full of himself. He fit with his teammates. I was encouraged by what I saw from him. I still want to see a lot more from him this year, but he’s a guy who will be at the top of the conversation with our scouts.”

Ty Simpson, Alabama

Simpson has proven to be a terrific fit in new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb’s creative pass-heavy attack. Simpson, a coach’s kid, has 11 TD passes and zero picks. He and the Tide came out Saturday, taking big shots against Georgia on the road, and got the Bulldogs on their heels early. Even after Simpson threw a perfect deep ball that Ryan Williams couldn’t hang on to, the QB never flinched, leading the Tide to a 24-21 road win, wherein they converted 13 of 19 third downs. He also used his legs to run for a touchdown.

Word out of Tuscaloosa is that, from about the midway point of spring ball, something really clicked for him. He’s become so much calmer and decisive, and is now playing with a ton of confidence.

John Mateer, Oklahoma

Mateer is another who has exceeded expectations of what people were thinking coming into the season. The 6-1, 218-pound dual-threat, who transferred from Washington State following his OC Ben Arbuckle, has reminded Sooner fans of another transfer who once carried the offense: Baker Mayfield.

Mateer is second in the country in total offense at 351 yards per game (behind Arkansas’ Taylen Green). He put Oklahoma on his back to lead the Sooners to wins against Michigan and Auburn, but he injured his hand against the Tigers and is now expected to be out until at least mid-October.

“He does remind me a lot of Baker,” said an NFL scout. “I don’t know if he throws it quite as well as Baker does, but I think he’s a better runner. And he plays with that same big chip on his shoulder. I think OU needed that.”

Julian Sayin, Ohio State

Sayin, another former five-star, still has three more years of eligibility after this season. He outshone Manning in the opener. Sayin does get to throw to the best group of receivers in the country, led by Jeremiah Smith, but still, his quick release and accuracy have been impressive. Texas has a talented defense, and he shook off three dropped passes early to help Ohio State win that game.

Sayin was also very sharp in a tough road game last weekend at Washington, where the Buckeyes won 24-6. On the season, he’s hitting on 79 percent of his passes. Better still, he looks unflappable. The Buckeyes’ running game isn’t anywhere near as good as last year’s, but their passing attack looks improved.

(Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Photos: Robin Alam, Jack Gorman, Tim Warner / Getty Images)