Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 5’s Thursday Night Football game between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers.
SoFi’s been buzzing for this rivalry night long before the snap, and both sidelines know it: tonight’s all about the clock. Indeed, the Rams will wear their midnight-black jerseys as time-conscious hosts who, as they say, work in the darkness to earn the spotlight. Thursday—just a tight eightyish-hour turnaround from Week 4’s final whistle—tends to strip all secondhand rhythm. Schemes fall out of time. Prep shrinks. Coaches trim call sheets and demand clean football. To wit, Sean McVay’s Rams arrive 3–1 off a 27–20 win that demanded poise late. The 49ers stagger in at 3–1 but minus firepower everywhere: quarterback Brock Purdy, wide receivers Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, and Brandon Aiyuk (still), as well as tight end George Kittle and defensive end Nick Bosa—are all out. Short week, divisional friction, and a battered roster tilt the frame toward efficiency over spectacle. Since 2019, Thursday games on short rest average about 45.5 combined points with unders hitting near 60% in primetime. That’s the heartbeat here: controlled tempo, compressed plans, and fewer explosives finishing drives. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 5’s game between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Ironically, I expect quarterback Mac Jones to pilot structure and throws on time, because San Francisco must survive with spacing, not haymakers. Shanahan knows that. Running back Christian McCaffrey remains their engine, yet his 3.3 yards per rush, -0.11 EPA per rush, and the line’s 51% run-block win rate narrow the lane count. San Francisco has leaned on the air to move chains, but the perimeter room shrinks without their three top receivers and the tight end who manipulates leverage. Jones has averaged just 5.7 yards per attempt under pressure, and without separators his first-read rate (64%) drops into checkdown territory. The 49ers haven’t intercepted a pass in 11 straight games, which bends their margins toward ball control, not track meet exchanges. Their defense still contests efficiently between the 20s, ranking seventh in success rate allowed (40.8%), but without Bosa, the pressure picture dimmed and Jacksonville carved them for 151 rushing yards on Sunday. San Francisco’s pressure rate sits at only 19.4%, bottom three in the league, and their sack-to-pressure conversion is just 8%. On a three-day turn, that’s trouble against a script that will stress pursuit and tackling depth.
The Rams’ offense flows when quarterback Matthew Stafford detonates space for wide receiver Puka Nacua and wide receiver Davante Adams, then lets running back Kyren Williams salt drives. Stafford owns 1,114 passing yards with an 8–2 TD–INT, and he just dropped 375 and three scores on Indianapolis. His 0.24 EPA per dropback and 51.7% success rate both rank top five among qualified starters; he’s been surgical, and he’s been letting defenses know it. Los Angeles ranks at 388.3 yards per game and 25.0 points, with only 16.3% of drives dying without a first down. They sit fourth in third-down conversion rate (47%) and fifth in red-zone touchdown rate (67%).
The trench advantage matters more than usual tonight: the Rams’ rush has produced 14 sacks and a 44.9% pressure rate while blitzing less than league average. Byron Young and Kobie Turner combine for a 26% pass-rush win rate, giving Stafford cleaner pockets while the defense collapses others. With San Francisco down Bosa and still stuck at five sacks, Stafford should see cleaner pockets, but McVay’s pattern on short rest is to lean situational and throttle back when ahead. This may also be the week McVay tries to establish a two-headed hydra with Williams and rookie Blake Corum, who logged just four touches in Week 4. A short week often invites rotation to preserve legs, and Corum’s 3.1 yards after contact per rush plus 23% missed-tackle rate forced in college project well against San Francisco’s depleted front. That’s the TNF tell: home favorite wins at a solid clip, yet late-game pace decelerates as the clock becomes the plan.
49ers vs. Rams pick, best bet
I hear the argument (and, ahem, personally would love the midweek occasion) for a Rams avalanche. The 49ers’ offense ranks at 20.0 points per game, their run game sits at 88.0 per, and they just turned it over four times. They’re 27% explosive-play rate through the air to date, but only 7% on the ground, and sit 28th in early-down EPA/play with a 37% early-down success rate. Their neutral-situation pace is 30.5 seconds per snap (bottom-five), which compounds the possession squeeze on a short week. Los Angeles constricts explosives and has allowed 20.3 points per game with 186 passing yards per game. The Rams’ defense ranks top-six in defensive EPA/play, allows an 8% explosive pass rate, and sits at 31% pressure rate with only a 20% blitz rate; opponents average 1.63 points per drive and a 34% third-down conversion. But the short-week effect imposes gravity. Since 2019, Thursday totals show a tiny average dip, a bigger variance band, and an under bias.
Home favorites cover more often here, yet margins flatten when the favorite goes method over artistry. McVay’s neutral-script pass rate sits at 56%, but it drops to 48% when leading by seven-plus; Los Angeles’ four-minute offense averages 3.0 first downs per closeout drive with a 72% run rate and +0.09 EPA/rush on duo/mid-zone. Red-zone, they’re at 4.1 trips per game but a condensed route tree yields a 24% target share to backs and a 62% TD rate, which plays toward clock bleed, not shootout. McVay’s teams on short rest have handled the moment, but they’ve also protected leads by squeezing tempo, marrying duo and mid-zone to play-action keepers, and condensing the red-zone tree. That’s how the Rams should win this exact game after a bruising Sunday: clean pockets, layered flood concepts, then the run game to kill minutes, not pad totals. This LA defense keeps a lot in front of them, and could let some long SF drives absorb clock and eat three points from Pineiro.
I see this shaking out something like Rams 23, 49ers 13. My primary lean is the u45.5 (-120), because short weeks compress possessions, tilt coaches toward fourth-quarter conservatism, and have historically pushed primetime unders more often than not. Why would either McVay or Shanahan push it if the game feels salted with fifteen minutes left, given the short week and health considerations across the board?
My secondary lean is Rams -8.5 (110), as home favorites on TNF cover more often and Los Angeles owns the trench and health edges, but the number’s awkward for a reason. Take heed. Matthew Stafford should manipulate the underneath shells and avoid cheap turnovers. Puka Nacua will likely bend zones on glance and drift to manufacture first downs. Byron Young tends to sting the edge without blitz help and shorten every third down.
Best bet: Rams vs. 49ers u45.5 total points (-120)
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For a prop, I like Blake Corum over 32.5 rushing yards (-110). The short week should push Sean McVay toward a real two-back rhythm, and a Rams lead will likely hand Corum closing carries. San Francisco just surrendered 144 rushing yards to Jacksonville in its first game without Nick Bosa, and their run front has sprung leaks on quick turnarounds. Corum brings fresh legs and contact balance—he averaged 3.1 yards after contact with a 23% missed-tackle rate in college—and Los Angeles has kept only 16.3% of its drives from reaching a first down, meaning sustained series and more rush snaps. The only caution is usage if Kyren Williams hogs the finish, but tonight’s script should tilt this over.
Best prop lean: Blake Corum o32.5 rushing yards (-110)
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