October 2, 2025
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: LAR -7.5
Total: 44.5
Team Totals: Rams (26.0), 49ers (18.5)
Game Outlook
Week 5 in the NFL kicks off when the 49ers’ backups travel to SoFi for an NFC West Divisional matchup against the Rams, who have to be licking their chops looking at the San Francisco injury report. Worth noting, this spread on Monday was LAR -4.5, but with Purdy, Pearsall and Jennings set to join Kittle, Aiyuk and Nick Bosa on the bench, the line has been moving all week in favor of the home team. That’s obviously going to have an effect on projections and how the field approaches lineup building on this showdown slate, so let’s dive in.
Through four games, the walking wounded Niners rank middle of the pack in neutral situation pass rate (57%) and pass rate over expectation (-2.0%). Now with their top pass catchers all out and a backup QB under center, I suspect we’ll see Kyle Shanahan try to continue to limit drop backs and feed CMC as long as game script allows. Of course, as 7.5-point road dogs, Shanny may not have much of a choice but to #LetMacCook, and it is worth highlighting that the Niners have upped their pass rate to 67% when trailing by 7+ points this year. In builds where we expect the Rams to cover the TD+ spread, boosting SF’s pass game does make some sense on paper.
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