The New Orleans Saints are in the driver’s seat for the 2026 NFL draft — for now. After all, the draft doesn’t start tomorrow. The order of picks is going to change, and it’s very possible that a weak strength of schedule results in the Saints playing their way out of picking first overall.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), which simulates the remainder of the season based off team ratings and game locations, among other factors, the Saints only have a 17.5% chance of earning the first overall pick in 2026. Instead, it’s the Tennessee Titans who are most favored to pick first (doing so in 40.3% of simulations).
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Now that doesn’t mean the model expects the Saints to turn things around and get back to the playoffs. An overwhelming 63.3% of FPI models have them picking top-five in 2026. There’s an even larger degree of certainty that New Orleans will end up inside the top 10 picks (88.4%). Their average draft position is 5.3, which suggests the fifth overall pick is likeliest.
If you’re wondering why that is, just look at the latest standings. The Saints are scheduled to play five of their 13 remaining games against teams that are 1-3 or 0-4. Including their season-opening loss to the Arizona Cardinals, 11 of their 17 games are against teams with two wins or fewer going into Week 5. New Orleans has a strength of schedule at .485, one of the lowest in the league. Tennessee’s is .529, one of the highest. That helps the Saints in a tiebreaker, but the Titans are likelier to lose more games and avoid a tie in the first place.
Maybe the model is right. Maybe it isn’t. Maybe Kellen Moore and his coaching staff can right this ship and get us to stop refreshing Tankathon. We’ll just have to wait and see how this plays out.
This article originally appeared on Saints Wire: 2026 NFL draft: ESPN predicts Saints pick high, but not first overall