Two Analytics Models Give Ravens Favorable Odds to Make Playoffs

Whether the Ravens should still be regarded as contenders has been a hot topic around the NFL.

The Ringer’s Steven Ruiz said he can’t write off the Ravens because Jackson always gives them a chance, but he leaned toward putting them in the “pretender” category.

“The defense is broken beyond repair, and the latest rash of injuries could destroy it completely,” Ruiz wrote. “The Ravens’ schedule does offer some hope, though. After their bye in Week 7, they will likely be favored in every game up until their Week 17 trip to Lambeau Field.”

Zrebiec was asked to rate how much trouble the Ravens are in on a 1-10 scale. He gave it an eight, but added that he “could easily be talked into a nine.”

“The Ravens just aren’t doing anything well consistently,” Zrebiec wrote. “They weren’t playing well defensively when they were mostly healthy. Now, you subtract as many as 10 starters, including the former MVP quarterback, from the team for a few weeks, and I’m not sure we’ve seen their rock bottom. I do think they deserve the benefit of the doubt to some extent. They have been through tough stretches before, and they usually come out of them and salvage their season. Their schedule gets lighter, and as long as Jackson is back soon, they’ll have a chance every week. But they are leaving themselves very little margin for error.”

Opinions are just that, but what do the analytics say?

The Baltimore Sun’s C.J. Doon noted that two analytic models project the Ravens to make the playoffs.

“Entering a Week [5] game against the visiting Houston Texans with backup quarterback Cooper Rush likely stepping in for injured star Lamar Jackson, the NFL’s Next Gen Stats still give the Ravens a 64% chance of making the playoffs,” Doon wrote. “That would increase to 74% with a victory and would only drop to 57% with a loss. That’s pretty remarkable, considering only 17 NFL teams that lost four of their first five games would go on to make the playoffs, including the 2024 Los Angeles Rams (and nearly the 2024 Cincinnati Bengals).

“The Washington Post’s playoff forecast, which is produced by simulating every game 25,000 times, is even more bullish, giving the Ravens an 80% chance to make the postseason. That’s much higher than the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers, who at 3-1 have a 59% chance to make the field. In fact, only the undefeated Buffalo Bills (4-0) have better odds than Baltimore at greater than 99%.”