Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 5’s game between the Jets and Cowboys on Sunday.

In Week 5, the winless New York Jets (0-4) look to rebound at home as they host the Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1) for an inter-conference tilt. The Jets have struggled out of the gate to begin the Aaron Glenn era, but they’re bound to secure a victory eventually and have the chance to capture one against a Cowboys squad with a vulnerable defense while also missing top wideout in CeeDee Lamb. Can New York get the job done, or will America’s Team pull through?

Prepare for the Week 5 matchup with a Jets vs. Cowboys prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jets vs. Cowboys prediction, preview

New York Jets

A miserable start for the Jets this year has fans in the usual spiral. Losses to the Bills and Buccaneers were to be expected, though New York actually held the latter game in hand until the very late stages of the fourth quarter. The losses to the Steelers and Dolphins certainly hurt a little more, especially the Miami game which took place this past Monday. Surprisingly, it’s not necessarily the offense which has hurt this team — 22.5 points and 304.8 yards per contest aren’t horrible marks by any means, and the 5.3 yards per play also sits a respectable 17th. They do need some help on third downs, which they’ve converted at just a 31.11% rate (29th), but a red-zone scoring rate of 60% also feels perfectly fine.

The problem for the Jets is that despite a top-five run game averaging 144.5 yards on the ground thanks to Breece Hall and Justin Fields, the passing game struggles mightily. Fields played an okay game this past week but the team averages just 160.3 yards through the air, and outside of Garrett Wilson in the midst of an excellent campaign, receiving threats are few and far between. Rookie tight end Mason Taylor has seen his target share creep up over the last two weeks, an encouraging sign, but this attack remains clearly lacking in skill-position talent to catch the football. Defenses key on that and can plan accordingly, and it keeps them from fighting back into games they trail in, too.

Defensively, the Jets post some very poor numbers. The 30 points and 330.3 yards allowed per game rank 28th and 20th despite an average ranking in opponent yards per play and the 11th-best opponent third-down conversion rate at 34.69%. New York can’t stop the run with 130.5 yards allowed on average in that facet, and ranking 12th in passing yards allowed doesn’t help much when the other side can just take the lead early and pound the rock for the remainder of the game to run the clock. The Jets’ six sacks are unimpressive, and they’re one of just three teams yet to record an interception. The big-time plays just aren’t coming.

Dallas Cowboys

Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ first few games feel like a whirlwind. Two overtimes resulted in a win over the Giants and a tie against the Packers, while the losses came at the hands of the Bears and Eagles. Year one under Brian Schottenheimer hasn’t started in stunning fashion, but the results aren’t bad by any means given how competitive Dallas looked in three of their four contests despite Lamb going down early in Week 3 and missing Week 4 entirely. The resilience from the offense sparks encouragement, especially in his absence.

The Cowboys boast a top-five offense in multiple categories, including 28.5 points per game and 404.3 yards per contest, the fifth and first-best averages among the entire league. Their 5.9 yards per play rank sixth, as does the third-down conversion rate of 42.55% and their three touchdowns per game, and the red-zone success rate of 66.67% also provides some reassurance this team can win football games. A resurgent Javonte Williams looks to have caught a second wind now a couple of years removed from serious injury behind this offensive line as the Dallas run game averages 5.1 YPC and 123 rushing yards per contest. Dak Prescott is playing lights-out ball as well with a 72.9% completion rate, 1,119 yards and six touchdowns, as well as 12 big-time throws. He’s elite, as is this passing attack with high volume and 281.3 yards per contest. George Pickens is a real weapon here and Jake Ferguson helps carry the load with Lamb sidelined as well.

However, it’s not all bright spots here. Dallas allows 33 points and 420.5 yards a game, 31st and 32nd, as well as 6.4 yards per play to opponents with a 58.18% conversion rate on third down… dead last. Yes, the defense played without star cornerback Daron Bland for multiple weeks, but Trevon Diggs doesn’t look too hot and the secondary can’t stop anyone with 297.3 passing yards allowed on average, also last in the NFL. The Cowboys are stopping the run slightly better than usual, but still slot in at 20th with 123.3 yards allowed on the ground per outing, too. They also don’t get many sacks with just a 3.57% sack rate and half a takeaway per contest, so the big-time plays are lacking here as they are in New York.

Jets vs. Cowboys pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Cowboys as slight -1.5 road favorites with -125 odds on the Moneyline. The Jets are listed at +105 odds to win on the Moneyline with the game total set at 47.5 combined points.

It’s a tough call for this Week 5 contest. On one hand, the Dallas offense appears borderline unstoppable even without Lamb around right now (look at the 40 points last week against the Packers, a very strong defense, as proof). They air the ball out at will and do plenty of damage in that aspect, and Prescott’s genuinely looking unconscious out there with some of the incredible throws he’s delivering. Pickens will draw the matchup with Sauce Gardner but there’s less to fear in the remainder of the secondary. Williams may find himself able to gash the Jets’ front seven for some big gains or at least grind them down otherwise with his physical style of play. The Cowboys will score points this week, make no mistake.

On the other hand, their own defense is paper-thin and can’t stop a parked car. Fields’ legs are better than his arm, but he should have his way with both in this contest and the RPO threat between he and Hall will likely give this defense some fits throughout the day. If New York can pound the rock efficiently and get the passing game going, the franchise may steal its first win of the season on Sunday. The Jets absolutely need both Fields and Hall to step up though, and the latter may see additional work after an injury landed backup Braelon Allen on IR. The home team’s got a shot, but the odds Dallas exposes the defense are probably better than the odds of a win.

Best bet: DAL Cowboys -1.5 (-110)