Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 5’s game between the New Orleans Saints and the New York Giants.
The Superdome will pulse for a game that should bruise the clock and bleed field position, as its Saints chase their first win and the Giants chase proof that last week wasn’t a fluke. Jaxson Dart’s first road start meets the decibel heat of the dome, and Spencer Rattler’s 0–10 record meets the mounting tension of a season already tilting toward crisis. Both offenses average under 19 points per game, both defenses surrender over 25, and yet the matchup smells like restraint. Crowd noise, penalties, and field goals should dictate early rhythm. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 5’s game between the New Orleans Saints and the New York Giants.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Dart completed 65% of his throws in his debut and rushed for 54 yards, his movement extending seven different drives, but New York still sits dead last in red-zone rate at 26.7% and ranks 30th in third-down conversions (28.1%). That inefficiency will matter here. The Giants’ offense averages just 4.8 yards per play, bottom eight in the league, and posts an explosive rate of only 9.1%, compared to the league median near 13. New York’s line has allowed pressure on 37% of dropbacks and a sack every 10.8 attempts, bleeding drive rhythm even when Dart escapes. The formula screams clock drain, long fields, and third-down tension.
The Saints should lean into the ground game that logged 189 rushing yards last week at Buffalo, their most since 2023. Alvin Kamara’s 65% broken-tackle rate and 2.8 yards after contact per rush lead all NFC backs, and he’s averaged 64.0 rushing yards per game on a 52% rush-share. Kendre Miller’s 5.9 yards per touch gives them a change-of-pace dimension that’s quietly created four explosive runs on 33 touches (12.1%). They’ll test a Giants front allowing 153 rushing yards per game, 4.7 yards per carry, and six rushing touchdowns, all bottom five in the league.
The Saints rank 10th in rushing yards (496) but 27th in yards per pass attempt (5.8), so their offensive rhythm lives in short-yardage leverage and sustained sequences. Spencer Rattler’s 67.1% completion rate and 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio reflect control more than creation — the right blueprint against a Giants defense that thrives on chaos but gives up consistency. His 2.41-second average time to throw keeps sacks low, and paired with Kamara’s after-contact reliability, it points toward tempo dominance rather than fireworks. This game should hinge on whichever side converts two of its five red-zone trips — and right now, New Orleans’ 52% RZ TD rate dwarfs New York’s 26.7%.
Giants vs. Saints pick, best bet
The counter is obvious: Brian Burns and Abdul Carter can wreck rhythm. The Giants pressured Justin Herbert on 47.7% of dropbacks last week and forced two turnovers, both off disguised fronts. Burns’ five sacks, 15 total pressures, and 20.9% win rate rank top ten among edge rushers, while Carter’s eight Week-4 pressures pushed him into a situational role that amplifies chaos on passing downs. Those two tilt this into a trench game. If they win early downs, Spencer Rattler’s 2.41-second average time to throw turns from asset to liability, forcing long fields and muting play-action. But the same applies in reverse: New Orleans ranks tied-first in fourth-down defense (0.0% conversions allowed) and still owns the tools to confine a rookie quarterback’s reads. Turnovers should define the hinge—each team has just three takeaways through four games, and the first to reach plus-one turnover differential likely decides it.
From a data view, both sides tilt under. Combined scoring averages 34.8 points per game, well below the 42-point total, and neither quarterback has topped 200 passing yards in consecutive weeks. Dome conditions remove weather, but not nerves: pre-snap noise has already triggered 34 Giants penalties for 320 lost yards, fifth-most in the league. The Saints’ offense, despite 496 rushing yards, still averages only 301 total yards per game with a 32% third-down conversion rate. That narrowness and the Giants’ run inefficiency (3.8 yards per carry, 37% pressure rate allowed) frame a script that settles between 37 and 40 total points.
Alvin Kamara should slice creases off inside zone and screen angles, his legs stabilizing drives before fatigue sets in. Brian Burns should collapse edges and compress Rattler’s pocket on third down, threatening the strip sack that flips possession. Wan’Dale Robinson should flash on crossers against zone shells, carving the voids that extend Dart’s first sustained road drives. One of those matchups will decide which offense breathes longest under the dome’s hum.
I’ll call it as Saints 20, Giants 17. Spencer Rattler gets his first win at home, and we cash the under.
Best bet: Saints vs. Giants u42.5 total points (-115)
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
For a prop, I like Alvin Kamara 60+ rushing yards at +125 as a value lean. New York’s front has been gashed for 153 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry, bottom five in both categories, and has already yielded six rushing touchdowns. Kamara’s form is surging—he’s averaging 64 rushing yards per game, with a 65% broken-tackle rate and 2.8 yards after contact per rush, both top among NFC backs. His 52% rush-share locks in around 15–18 carries even in neutral scripts, and his vision through zone concepts pairs perfectly against a Giants defense that has allowed a run success rate over 53%. If the Saints maintain their typical 48% early-down run rate, Kamara should see enough volume to cash this prop through rhythm, not explosion. I’d play 60+ yards at +125, expecting a line around 17 carries for 78 yards and steady first-down conversions.
Best prop lean: Alvin Kamara 60+ rushing yards (+125)
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!