Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 5’s game between the Colts and Raiders on Sunday.
The Indianapolis Colts are an improbable 3-1 to begin the 2025 campaign and have the makings of one of the NFL’s most enjoyable teams to watch on a weekly basis with their impressive offensive production. While the Las Vegas Raiders are just 1-3 thus far, the team has also seen some encouraging signs after a breakout game from first-round pick Ashton Jeanty last week. Can he repeat that performance to help his team get a road victory in Week 5, or will Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor run all over the competition?
Find out with a Colts vs. Raiders prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Week 5 AFC tilt.
Colts vs. Raiders prediction, preview
Indianapolis Colts
Go back to March and tell someone the Colts would have a top-four offense through the first few weeks of the upcoming campaign and see what they’d say. Perhaps Shane Steichen was never the problem in Indianapolis and the team just needed a little more talent and a reliable presence under center to make magic happen. Indy beat the Dolphins, Broncos, and Titans in three straight contests before dropping last week’s matchup with the Rams. Still, the early results are quite impressive with Jonathan Taylor looking like an Offensive Player of the Year frontrunner and Daniel Jones’ career seemingly revived here. Add the pass-catching prowess of a healthy Michael Pittman Jr. and rookie tight end Tyler Warren, (who’s taking tush push attempts now?!?) and that’s a recipe for production. The Colts’ 30.8 points and 397.3 yards per game rank fourth each with 6.5 yards per play, the NFL’s best mark. They’re doing so through the air and on the ground with top-10 rankings in yardage both ways, and the offensive line has also kept Jones upright with just a 3.20% sack rate while opening running lanes as well.
Looking toward the defense, Indianapolis exemplifies the argument for scheme over talent pool with few true star-level contributors but rather a team effort that posts some respectable numbers. The Colts allow 20.8 points per game, 11th-best, and also concede 319.8 yards on average, 17th. They’re not particularly strong on third down while allowing a 40% conversion rate and an opponent red zone scoring percentage of 88.89% comes in dead-last among all teams, but they’ve gotten the job done through four weeks for the most part. The rush defense in particular stands out with just 96 yards allowed on the ground per game, ninth in the league, and Indianapolis also sits sixth in takeaways per game with 1.5 while its 6.67% sack rate is 18th.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders haven’t experienced the same bump as this week’s opponent at just 1-3 and a three-game losing streak. The lone victory came over the Patriots, with losses to the Chargers, Commanders and Bears since then. Pete Carroll’s first year as head coach hasn’t played out as anticipated as structural issues with the offensive line and inconsistent play from Geno Smith haven’t exactly created a winning formula just yet. One encouraging sign is that Las Vegas almost came out with a win last week, but ultimately saw the potential game-winning field goal blocked. The hope is that Ashton Jeanty can replicate his 155 scrimmage yards and three total touchdowns, but if not, he’s still broken through the first rookie wall to deliver a standout performance. As a whole though, the offense does struggle with 19.3 points and 329.5 yards per game, 24th and 18th in the league, as well as a third-down conversion rate of just 35.85% and a 50% scoring rate in the red zone.
As for the other side of the ball, the Raiders allow 24.8 points and 331 yards per game, 22nd and 21st in the NFL. Opponents convert third downs at a 39.22% clip but Las Vegas actually does excel in the red zone by limiting the competition to a 39.46% scoring rate, fourth-best in the league. That’s something to build on, as is a solid rush defense that allows an average of 102.8 yards (13th-best). The secondary hasn’t performed up to that same level though, giving up 228.3 passing yards which ranks 23rd among all teams. The Raiders also don’t get to opposing quarterbacks at a high level with just a 5.76% sack percentage, and they’re averaging a modest one takeaway per outing as well.
Colts vs. Raiders pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Colts are listed as -7.5 favorites at Lucas Oil Stadium with -375 odds to win on the Moneyline. Meanwhile, the Raiders are +295 underdogs to win outright on the road.
This one probably won’t be particularly close by the time the clock hits zero. This Indianapolis offense deploys a variety of weapons at skill positions who can beat you in myriad ways… if Taylor and Jones don’t run circles around an opponent, the latter can throw to a prototypical X receiver in Pittman Jr., a speedy slot technician in Josh Downs, or a walking mismatch in the athletic tight end Warren. It’s incredibly difficult to scheme against this unit, so this mediocre Las Vegas defense has its work cut out for it come Sunday. The Colts’ run game is so next-level good that Taylor can probably still get his numbers even against a capable rush defense, and Indy also ranks fifth in time-of-possession as well. They’ll just run the clock and choke the Raiders out in that regard.
Although they’re not an elite defense, the Colts can also limit the visitors here as well. Smith’s thrown a staggering seven interceptions in four games to start his career in black and silver, and with Brock Bowers’ status in question due to a lingering knee injury, more responsibility shifts onto the shoulders of he and wideouts Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker. That’s far from an intimidating passing attack, so it’s tough to see the Raiders truly keeping up through the air if they play from behind, especially if Bowers doesn’t suit up. The Las Vegas offensive line also took a hit with an injury to starting left tackle Kolton Miller who now lands on IR, so an already poor unit faces even more of a struggle without him active. Jeanty’s been hit behind the line of scrimmage on an absurd number of his rush attempts and hasn’t seen any favors from the trenches, and with Smith already getting sacked on 8.63% of his dropbacks, he’ll likely be under even more pressure in Week 5.
It’s not that this game can’t be competitive, it’s just not the likely outcome here. The -7.5 spread still feels a smidge high with that hook, so I’m lowering it to an alt line of Colts -6.5 instead and sacrificing a little bit of value in hopes that Indy emerges with their fourth win by a touchdown in this spot. Play the song!
Best bet: IND Colts -6.5 (-134)